TS Dolly-Former 94L - Page 3 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

canarymoon · 07-22-2008, 02:57 AM

Interesting . . .
Because of the inaccuracy of the CLF timestamp right now, it appears that we posted the 7 AM advisory some 7 hours before the NHC actually issued it.

IF it were true, Wonder how much NOAA would pay
someone with THAT particular skill?

sue miller · 07-22-2008, 04:56 AM

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE REPORTED AN
ISOLATED PEAK OF 65 KNOTS...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND AN
OPEN EYEWALL OF 20 NMI IN DIAMETER. SSMI DATA SHOWS THE EARLY
STAGES OF A CONVECTING RING AROUND THE CENTER. CONVECTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED OUTFLOW. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER DOLLY.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH WARM WATERS SHOULD
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING. BOTH GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS
HAVE GONE UP AND DOWN WITH EACH RUN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DOLLY TO 80 KNOTS AT
LANDFALL...5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE.

FIXES FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
INDICATED UNTIL LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF DOLLY AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN
MORE TO WEST...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR THE
MEXICO/US BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE RE-EMPHASIZED
THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.

THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON BROWNSVILLE RADAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 24.0N 94.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 24.8N 95.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 25.7N 97.0W 80 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 26.0N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

sue miller · 07-22-2008, 07:51 AM

Bulletin
Tropical Storm Dolly Intermediate Advisory Number 9a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042008
100 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 22 2008

...dolly Not Quite A Hurricane Yet...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Coast Of Texas From
Brownsville To Corpus Christi...and For The Northeast Coast Of
Mexico From Rio San Fernando Northward To The Border Between Mexico
And The United States. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane
Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24
Hours. Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed
To Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From North Of Corpus
Christi To San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That
Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area
Within The Next 24 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect From La
Pesca To South Of Rio San Fernando. A Hurricane Watch Means That
Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally
Within 36 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 100 Pm Cdt...1800z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Dolly Was
Located Near Latitude 24.3 North...longitude 94.9 West Or About 195
Miles...310 Km...southeast Of Brownsville Texas.

Dolly Has Slowed Down A Little Bit And Is Moving Toward The
Northwest Near 10 Mph...17 Km/hr. A General Northwest To
West-northwest Track Is Expected During The Next 24 Hours. This
Motion Would Bring The Core Of Dolly Near Northeastern Mexico Or
Extreme Southern Texas On Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 70 Mph...110 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Dolly Is Expected To Become A Hurricane Later Today Or
Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 160 Miles...260 Km
From The Center.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter Plane Was 990 Mb...29.23 Inches.

Dolly Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of 6 To 10
Inches...with Isolated Amounts Of 15 Inches...over Much Of South
Texas And Northeastern Mexico Over The Next Few Days.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 4 To 6 Feet Above Normal Tide
Levels...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be
Expected Near And To The North Of Where The Center Makes Landfall.

Repeating The 100 Pm Cdt Position...24.3 N...94.9 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...70 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...990 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
400 Pm Cdt.

$$
Forecaster Avila

sue miller · 07-22-2008, 02:26 PM

Bulletin
Hurricane Dolly Intermediate Advisory Number 10a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042008
700 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 22 2008

..dolly Continues Northwestward...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Coast Of Texas From
Brownsville To Corpus Christi...and For The Northeast Coast Of
Mexico From Rio San Fernando Northward To The Border Between Mexico
And The United States. Preparations To Protect Life And Property
Should Be Rushed To Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From North Of Corpus
Christi To San Luis Pass.

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect From La
Pesca To South Of Rio San Fernando.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 700 Pm Cdt...0000z...the Center Of Hurricane Dolly Was Located
Near Latitude 24.9 North...longitude 95.7 West Or About 130 Miles...
205 Km...east-southeast Of Brownsville Texas.

Dolly Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 11 Mph...18 Km/hr...and
This Motion Is Expected To Continue Until Landfall Of The Center Of
Dolly Along The Coast Of Northeastern Mexico Or Extreme Southern
Texas Near Midday Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph...120 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Dolly Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Some Additional Strengthening Is Forecast Before Landfall.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 15 Miles...30 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 160
Miles...260 Km. Tropical Storm Force Winds Should Begin To Reach
The Coasts Of Northeastern Mexico And Southern Texas Later Tonight.

The Minimum Central Pressure Just Reported By An Air Force Reserve
Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 982 Mb...29.00 Inches.

Dolly Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of 6 To 10
Inches...with Isolated Amounts Of 15 Inches...over Much Of South
Texas And Northeastern Mexico Over The Next Few Days.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 4 To 6 Feet Above Normal Tide
Levels...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be
Expected Near And To The North Of Where The Center Makes Landfall.

A Few Tornadoes Are Possible Overnight Across The Lower And Middle
Texas Coasts.

Repeating The 700 Pm Cdt Position...24.9 N...95.7 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 11 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...982 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 1000 Pm Cdt.

sue miller · 07-23-2008, 05:30 AM

6 inch+ totals now in extreme se Cameron County.

sue miller · 07-23-2008, 11:25 AM

Serious situation in La Feria, TX at this time...

Currently there is a mandatory evacuation in La Feria: only to East Commercial St and surrounding streets due to a gas line rupture and a electrical power line down over the gas line.

Emergency personnel have blocked these surrounding roads and emergency officials have evacuated everyone who live near due to the possibility of an explosion.

sue miller · 07-23-2008, 11:26 AM

Almost 87,000 AEP customers now without power in south Texas:

http://www.aepcustomer.com/outagemap/ma ... n=aeptexas

canarymoon · 07-23-2008, 12:18 PM

Holy cow. Serious stuff going on... and to think, this time yesterday, it had barely made hurricane status ...

sue miller · 07-24-2008, 03:39 PM

612
Abnt20 Knhc 242359
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
800 Pm Edt Thu Jul 24 2008

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center Has Issued Its Last Advisory On
Tropical Depression Dolly...centered About 30 Miles South Of Eagle
Pass Texas.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

Future Information On Dolly Can Be Found In Public Advisories
Issued By The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center...under Awips
Header Tcpat4 And Wmo Header Wtnt4 Kwnh...beginning At 10 Pm Cdt.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/pasch