TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE former Invest 91E - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 07-19-2008, 01:39 PM

Whxx01 Kmia 191550
Chge77
Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1550 Utc Sat Jul 19 2008

Disclaimer...numerical Models Are Subject To Large Errors.
Please Refer To Nhc Official Forecasts For Tropical Cyclone
And Subtropical Cyclone Information.

East Pacific Objective Aids For

Disturbance Invest (ep912008) 20080719 1200 Utc

...00 Hrs... ...12 Hrs... ...24 Hrs. .. ...36 Hrs...
080719 1200 080720 0000 080720 1200 080721 0000

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 12.5n 89.4w 13.3n 91.5w 13.6n 93.9w 13.8n 96.1w
Bamd 12.5n 89.4w 13.0n 91.8w 13.3n 94.3w 13.6n 97.0w
Bamm 12.5n 89.4w 13.2n 91.6w 13.8n 93.9w 14.2n 96.3w
Lbar 12.5n 89.4w 12.9n 91.8w 13.6n 94.7w 14.3n 97.8w
Ship 20kts 28kts 37kts 48kts
Dshp 20kts 28kts 37kts 48kts

...48 Hrs... ...72 Hrs... ...96 Hrs. .. ..120 Hrs...
080721 1200 080722 1200 080723 1200 080724 1200

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 13.9n 98.6w 15.6n 102.5w 17.6n 105.3w 18.9n 107.4w
Bamd 13.7n 100.0w 15.0n 105.2w 16.7n 109.5w 18.2n 112.1w
Bamm 14.5n 99.0w 16.4n 103.3w 18.3n 106.8w 20.0n 109.0w
Lbar 15.1n 101.1w 17.0n 107.1w 18.5n 110.9w 19.0n 113.9w
Ship 57kts 67kts 67kts 69kts
Dshp 57kts 67kts 67kts 69kts

...initial Conditions...
Latcur = 12.5n Loncur = 89.4w Dircur = 275deg Spdcur = 11kt
Latm12 = 12.3n Lonm12 = 87.2w Dirm12 = 278deg Spdm12 = 11kt
Latm24 = 12.1n Lonm24 = 85.0w
Wndcur = 20kt Rmaxwd = 30nm Wndm12 = 20kt
Cenprs = 1009mb Outprs = 1011mb Outrad = 120nm Sdepth = M
Rd34ne = 0nm Rd34se = 0nm Rd34sw = 0nm Rd34nw = 0nm

$$

sue miller · 07-19-2008, 01:47 PM

An Area Of Low Pressure...associated With A Westward-moving Tropical
Wave...has Emerged Over The Extreme Eastern Pacific Near El
Salvador. This System Is Accompanied By A Large Area Of Showers
And Thunderstorms. Locally Heavy Rains Are Expected To Continue
Over Portions Of Guatemala And El Salvador During The Next Day Or
So...and These Rains Could Cause Life-threatening Flash Floods And
Mud Slides. Conditions Appear Conducive For Development Of This
System...and It Could Become A Tropical Depression Within The Next
Couple Of Days As It Moves Westward At 10 To 15 Mph.

canarymoon · 07-20-2008, 07:48 AM

canarymoon · 07-20-2008, 07:50 AM

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OFTHE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO ITS WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONSAPPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME ATROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARDAT 10 TO 15 MPH.

canarymoon · 07-20-2008, 09:41 AM

WTPN21 PHNC 192230
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 90.0W TO 15.1N 101.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 192130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 90.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 90.6W,
APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR, EL SALVADOR.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A SOMEWHAT BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191630Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTHWEST WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH
QUADRANT. THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, SOUTH
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVER THE NEXT 18-36
HOURS, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE BANDING AND DEFINED
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 202230Z.//
BT

canarymoon · 07-20-2008, 09:42 AM

sue miller · 07-21-2008, 11:05 AM

000
Wtpz33 Knhc 212046
Tcpep3
Bulletin
tropical Storm Genevieve Advisory Number 2
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep082008
200 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 21 2008

...the Seventh Tropical Storm Of The Year Forms South Of Mexico...

At 200 Pm Pdt...2100z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Genevieve Was
Located Near Latitude 13.9 North...longitude 102.6 West Or About 275
Miles...440 Km...southwest Of Acapulco Mexico And About 370 Miles...
595 Km...south-southeast Of Manzanillo Mexico.

Genevieve Is Moving Toward The West Near 17 Mph...28 Km/hr...and
A Motion Toward The West Or West-northwest With A Decrease In
Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph...65 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Steady Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 50 Miles...85 Km
From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1004 Mb...29.65 Inches.

Repeating The 200 Pm Pdt Position...13.9 N...102.6 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 17 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...40 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1004 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
800 Pm Pdt.

$$
Forecaster Blake

canarymoon · 07-22-2008, 01:25 AM

000
Wtpz33 Knhc 220840
Tcpep3
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Genevieve Advisory Number 4
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep082008
200 Am Pdt Tue Jul 22 2008

...genevieve Strengthens Slightly...

At 200 Am Pdt the Center Of Tropical Storm Genevieve Was Located Near Latitude 14.6 North...longitude 105.2 West Or About 310 Miles south Of Manzanillo Mexico.

Genevieve Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 15 Mph ...and This General Motion Is Expected To Continue With A Decrease In Forward Speed During The Next Day Or Two.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 45 Mph with Higher Gusts. Some Additional Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1002 Mb.

Repeating The 200 Am Pdt Position...14.6 N...105.2 W. Movement Toward...west-northwest Near 15 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1002 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 800 Am Pdt.

$$
Forecaster Berg/rhome