Thread: TS Cristobal- Off NC Coast

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

...

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
800 Pm Edt Thu Jul 17 2008

Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Associated With The Area Of Low
Pressure Located About 50 Miles East Of Jacksonville Florida
Remains Limited. Environmental Conditions Are Expected To
Gradually Become More Favorable For Development During The Next
Couple Of Days. This System Has The Potential To Become A Tropical
Depression...especially If The Circulation Center Remains
Offshore...as It Drifts To The North Or North-northeast.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Rhome/roberts



Tropical Weather Discussion
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
805 Pm Edt Thu Jul 17 2008

A 1014 Mb Low Is Just Off The Coast Of Jacksonville Florida Near
30.5n80.5w With A Surface Trough Extending Sw Across Central
Florida. Environmental Conditions Could Allow For Some Slow
Development Of This System During The Next Couple Of Days As The
Low Drifts To The North Or North-northeast. Scattered
Showers/thunderstorms From Inland Over The Florida Peninsula And
In The W Atlc From 27n-29n W Of 80w. Scattered Showers/isolated
Thunderstorms Are From 28n-33n W Of 75w To Inland Over Florida
And Georgia.

AT 8 PM



3. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOWPRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDAREMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOGRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICALDEPRESSION...ESPECIALLY IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINSOFFSHORE...AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST.

As of 8 AM

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS PRODUCING
THUNDERSHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY OVER WATER. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE STEADILY FALLING IN THE AREA AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.

This is showing a definate counter clockwise spin today.... looks like it is trying to develop a center. BUT it's VERY close to land... may or may not be able to develop ...

Projected to move N or NE ... If it goes NE, it will have a better chance to become something more than what it is at this time

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

Red - High Probability

This system was NOT upgraded at 5 PM