Tcdat3
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al032008
1100 Am Edt Sat Jul 19 2008
The Tropical Depression Is Continuing To Organize And Is Nearing
Tropical Storm Strength. Radar Velocity Data From Charleston And
Wilmington Show That The Wind Fields Aloft Are Becoming Better-
Defined And Increasing. In Addition...ship Pdnn Reported 30 Kt To
The Southeast Of The Center At 1200 Utc. The Maximum Winds Are
Kept At 30 Kt In This Advisory And An Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance Plane Will Be In The Area Around 1700 Utc To
Determine If The System Has Become A Tropical Storm.
Although There Is Some Dry Air To The North...vertical Wind Shear Is
Forecast To Be Low For The Next Couple Of Days And The System Is
Expected To Be Near The Warm Gulf Stream Waters. Surprisingly...
Neither The Gfdl Nor The Hwrf Show Much Strengthening With The
Depression. We''re Inclined To Think That Slow Intensification Is
Likely Given The Environmental Conditions...so A Slow Increase In
Winds Is Indicated...close To A Blend Of The Ships/shifor Guidance.
Data From Buoy 41004 Has Been Helpful In Tracking The Depression...
Which Appears To Have Reformed A Little To The East. Best Estimate
Of Initial Motion Is 050/6. A Weak Mid-tropospheric Ridge To The
Southeast Of The Storm Should Continue To Move The System In This
General Direction And At A Similar Speed For The Next Day Or So.
Thereafter... The Depression Will Be Caught Up In A Stronger
Steering Current Between A Building Ridge To The East And A
Deepening Middle-latitude Trough. Model Guidance Is In Good
Agreement On Taking The System Near The South And North Carolina
Coasts During The Next Couple Of Days. The Official Forecast Is
Shifted A Little To The East Of The Previous One...mostly Due To
The Center Reformation...and Lies On The Western Side Of The
Guidance Envelope.
Tcmat3
Tropical Depression Three Forecast/advisory Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al032008
1500 Utc Sat Jul 19 2008
At 1100 Am Edt...1500 Utc...the Tropical Storm Watch From North Of
Edisto Beach South Carolina To South Santee River Has Been
Discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From South Santee River
South Carolina To The North Carolina/virginia Border...including
Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24
Hours.
Tropical Depression Center Located Near 32.6n 78.5w At 19/1500z
Position Accurate Within 40 Nm
Present Movement Toward The Northeast Or 50 Degrees At 6 Kt
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 1007 Mb
Max Sustained Winds 30 Kt With Gusts To 40 Kt.
Winds And Seas Vary Greatly In Each Quadrant. Radii In Nautical
Miles Are The Largest Radii Expected Anywhere In That Quadrant.
Repeat...center Located Near 32.6n 78.5w At 19/1500z
At 19/1200z Center Was Located Near 32.4n 78.8w
Forecast Valid 20/0000z 33.3n 77.6w
Max Wind 35 Kt...gusts 45 Kt.
34 Kt... 60ne 75se 0sw 0nw.
Forecast Valid 20/1200z 34.2n 76.3w
Max Wind 40 Kt...gusts 50 Kt.
34 Kt... 60ne 75se 30sw 45nw.
Forecast Valid 21/0000z 35.1n 75.0w
Max Wind 45 Kt...gusts 55 Kt.
34 Kt... 60ne 75se 30sw 45nw.
Forecast Valid 21/1200z 36.5n 73.0w
Max Wind 45 Kt...gusts 55 Kt.
34 Kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 45nw.
Forecast Valid 22/1200z 40.5n 68.0w
Max Wind 45 Kt...gusts 55 Kt.
34 Kt... 90ne 90se 30sw 30nw.
Extended Outlook. Note...errors For Track Have Averaged Near 250 Nm
On Day 4 And 325 Nm On Day 5...and For Intensity Near 20 Kt Each Day
Outlook Valid 23/1200z...absorbed
Request For 3 Hourly Ship Reports Within 300 Miles Of 32.6n 78.5w
Next Advisory At 19/2100z
$$
Forecaster Blake/knabb
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al032008
1100 Am Edt Sat Jul 19 2008
...depression Nearing Tropical Storm Strength...
At 1100 Am Edt...1500 Utc...the Tropical Storm Watch From North Of
Edisto Beach South Carolina To South Santee River Has Been
Discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From South Santee River
South Carolina To The North Carolina/virginia Border...including
Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24
Hours.
For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.
At 1100 Am Edt...1500z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Three Was
Located Near Latitude 32.6 North...longitude 78.5 West Or About 90
Miles...140 Km...east Of Charleston South Carolina And About 250
Miles...400 Km...southwest Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
The Depression Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 7 Mph And This
General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next Couple Of Days.
On This Track...the Center Of The Depression Is Expected To Move
Along The Coasts Of South And North Carolina Today And Tomorrow.
Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm Later
Today...with Continued Strengthening Possible On Sunday.
The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1007 Mb...29.74 Inches.
Rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches Are Expected Along The Coasts Of
North Carolina And Northern South Carolina...with Isolated Heavier
Amounts Over Northeastern South Carolina And Southeastern North
Carolina.
Repeating The 1100 Am Edt Position...32.6 N...78.5 W. Movement
Toward...northeast Near 7 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1007 Mb.
An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 200 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 500
Wilmington, NC long range radar shows the steady development of solid spiral bands of thunderstorms on all sides of the center, and these bands have begun bringing heavy rains to the North Carolina coast. Rainfall amounts as high as 3 inches have fallen just north of Wilmington, NC,
Hurrican Hunter plane is in the storm now... haven't found TS strength winds YET, but they have NOT arrived at the strongest quadrant of the storm yet, either.
744 Wtnt33 Knhc 191746 Tcpat3 Bulletin Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 3a Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al032008 200 Pm Edt Sat Jul 19 2008
...cristobal Forms Off The South Carolina Coast...likely To Strengthen...
A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From South Santee River South Carolina To The North Carolina/virginia Border...including Pamlico Sound.
At 200 Pm Edt the Center Of Tropical Storm Cristobal Was Located Near Latitude 32.8 North...longitude 78.3 West Or About 100 Miles east Of Charleston South Carolina And About 225 Miles southwest Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Cristobal Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 7 Mph And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next Couple Of Days. On This Track...the Center Of The Tropical Storm Is Expected To Move Along The Coasts Of South And North Carolina Today And Tomorrow.
Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph with Higher Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next Couple Of Days.
An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Recently Measured A Central Pressure Of 1007 Mb.
Rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches Are Expected Along The Coasts Of North Carolina And Northern South Carolina...with Isolated Heavier Amounts Over Northeastern South Carolina And Southeastern North Carolina.
Repeating The 200 Pm Edt Position......32.8 N...78.3 W. Movement Toward...northeast Near 7 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...40 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1007 Mb.
The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 500 Pm Edt.
000
Wtnt33 Knhc 192048
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 4
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al032008
500 Pm Edt Sat Jul 19 2008
...cristobal Strengthens Off The South Carolina Coast...
A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From South Santee River
South Carolina To The North Carolina/virginia Border...including
Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24
Hours.
For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.
At 500 Pm Edt the Center Of Tropical Storm Cristobal Was Located Near Latitude 33.0 North...longitude 77.9 West Or About 125 Miles east Of Charleston South Carolina And About 205 Miles southwest Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Cristobal Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 7 Mph and This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next Couple Of Days With Some Increase In Forward Speed. On This Track...the Center Of The Tropical Storm Is Expected To Move Parallel And Very Close To The Coasts Of South And North Carolina Today And Tomorrow.
Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph with Higher Gusts. Slow Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next Day Or Two.
Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles From The Center.
The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance Aircraft Is 1005 Mb.
Rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches Are Expected Along The North Carolina Coast...with Isolated Heavier Amounts.
Repeating The 500 Pm Edt Position...33.0 N...77.9 W. Movement Toward...northeast Near 7 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.
An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 800 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 1100
Pm Edt.
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 4
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al032008
500 Pm Edt Sat Jul 19 2008
...cristobal Strengthens Off The South Carolina Coast...
A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From South Santee River
South Carolina To The North Carolina/virginia Border...including
Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24
Hours.
For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.
At 500 Pm Edt...2100z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Cristobal Was
Located Near Latitude 33.0 North...longitude 77.9 West Or About 125
Miles...195 Km...east Of Charleston South Carolina And About 205
Miles...330 Km...southwest Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Cristobal Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 7 Mph...11 Km/hr...and
This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next Couple Of
Days With Some Increase In Forward Speed. On This Track...the
Center Of The Tropical Storm Is Expected To Move Parallel And Very
Close To The Coasts Of South And North Carolina Today And Tomorrow.
Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph...75 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Slow Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next Day Or Two.
Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles...140 Km
From The Center.
The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance Aircraft Is 1005 Mb...29.68 Inches.
Rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches Are Expected Along The North
Carolina Coast...with Isolated Heavier Amounts.
Repeating The 500 Pm Edt Position...33.0 N...77.9 W. Movement
Toward...northeast Near 7 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.
An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 800 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 1100
Pm Edt.
$$
Forecaster Blake/knabb
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 4
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al032008
500 Pm Edt Sat Jul 19 2008
The Air Force Hurricane Hunter Has Found Maximum Flight Level Winds
Of 58 Kt At 2500 Ft...corresponding To About 45 Kt At The Surface.
However...sfmr Data At That Same Location Showed Only 35 Kt And
Convection Has Been Weakening Near The Center. The Initial
Intensity Is A Compromise Between These Values And Is Set To 40 Kt.
Further Intensification Is Possible As The System Moves Over Warm
Gulf Stream Waters And Experiences Light Shear. The Official
Forecast Is Increased From The Previous One And Is Close To A
Shifor/ships Consensus. Strangely...the Gfdl/hwrf Still Refuse To
Intensify This System.
The Initial Motion Estimate Is 050/6. There Is No Change To The
Previous Synoptic Reasoning. A Weak Mid-tropospheric Ridge To The
Southeast Of The Storm Should Continue To Move The System At About
The Same Heading And Speed During The Next Day Or So. Model
Guidance Remains In Good Agreement On Taking The System Nearly
Parallel To The North Carolina Coast During The Next Day Or So.
Thereafter...the Depression Will Move Faster To The Northeast
Between A Building Ridge To The East And A Deepening Middle-
Latitude Trough Over Eastern North America. The Models Do Diverge A
Little On Whether The Storm Will Be Turn A Little More To The Left
In Response To The Trough Or Stay More Separate From That Feature.
The Official Forecast Is A Tad Faster And A Little Left Of The
Previous One After 36 Hr...near The Center Of The Guidance
Envelope.
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