Several of the models are starting to shift a bit to the right, and bring it across the the eastern or southern caribbean islands at the end of the week . . .
Since yesterday is seems even more likely that Invest 94L will become Tropical Depression Three. It is far too early for public talk of a landfall at this time. You'll never see me issuing that kind of forecast until after a closed circulation is well-developed. Both the GFDL and the HWRF slowly develop the system as it tracks toward the west. The mostly likely situation is for us to see a strong tropical storm over the northeast Caribbean in about 5 days
Thunderstorm activity with the area of low pressure located about
1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has increased a little since
this morning. Environmental conditions are favorable for further
development...and this system could become a tropical depression at
any time during the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward
at 15 mph.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE DECREASED
A LITTLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.
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