Thread: Td 05e

Tropical Storm Warning for parts of Mexican coast.

WTPZ32 KNHC 052032
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 05 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...SQUALLY WEATHER
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
99.2 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
ANGEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. ONLY A
SMALL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO MAINLY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.5 N...99.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Tcdep5
Tropical Depression Five-e Discussion Number 2
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep052008
800 Pm Pdt Sat Jul 05 2008

Satellite Imagery And Earlier Ascat Data Suggest That Tropical
Depression Five-e Has A Structure Similar To The Monsoon Cyclones
Of The Western North Pacific And North Indian Oceans. The
Scatterometer Data Showed An Area Of 20-25 Kt Winds About 70-80 N
Mi From The Center Of The Cyclone...and A Second Large Area Of
20-25 Kt Westerly Winds Well To The South And Southwest Of The
Center. The Depression Is Producing Widespread Strong...but
Disorganized...convection. Satellite Intensity Estimates From Tafb
And Sab Remain 25 Kt...so That Remains The Initial Intensity.

The Center Is Hard To Pinpoint...and The Initial Motion Is A Rather
Uncertain 315/6. The Depression Is On The Southwest Side Of A Weak
Low/mid-level Ridge And Strong Upper-level Ridge...which The
Large-scale Models Forecast To Persist Through The Forecast Period.
The Track Guidance Shows A Significant Spread...with The Gfs...
Ukmet...hwrf...and Nogaps Forecasting The System To Make Landfall
On The Mexican Coast Near Or West Of Acapulco...while The Gfdl...
Ecmwf...and Canadian Models Forecast A West-northwestward Motion
Near The Coast. The Forecast Track Calls For A Slow Northwestward
Motion For The First 24-48 Hr...followed By A West-northwestward
Motion. The New Forecast Track Is Similar To The Old Track After
Some Adjustment For The Initial Position...and Lies Between The
Gfdl And The Ecmwf. It Should Be Noted Just About Any Motion To
The Right Of The Track Would Bring The Center Onto The Mexican
Coast. There Is Also A Chance Of Some Erratic Motion During The
First 24 Hr As The System Consolidates.

Upper-level Easterly Flow On The South Side Of The Ridge Is
Producing 20-25 Kt Of Vertical Wind Shear Over The Center...and The
Large-scale Models Forecast This Condition To Persist For At Least
72 Hr. This Combined With The Sprawling Nature Of The System
Suggests That Intensification Should Be Slow...if It Occurs At All.
The Only Guidance Calling For Significant Strengthening Is The
Ships Model...which Calls For A Peak Intensity Of 53 Kt In 60 Hr.
Given The Similarity Of The System To A Monsoon Cyclone...which Can
Intensify In This Type Of Environment...the Intensity Forecast
Calls For Modest Strengthening As A Compromise Between The Ships
And Lgem Models. An Alternative Scenario Is That The Cyclone Will
Dissipate If It Makes Landfall Over The Mountains Of Southwestern
Mexico.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 06/0300z 14.5n 100.0w 25 Kt
12hr Vt 06/1200z 15.0n 100.3w 30 Kt
24hr Vt 07/0000z 15.7n 100.8w 35 Kt
36hr Vt 07/1200z 16.4n 101.4w 40 Kt
48hr Vt 08/0000z 17.0n 102.2w 40 Kt
72hr Vt 09/0000z 18.0n 104.0w 40 Kt
96hr Vt 10/0000z 19.0n 106.0w 45 Kt
120hr Vt 11/0000z 20.5n 109.5w 45 Kt

$$
Forecaster Beven

Well, we were pretty much expecting this.
Looks like that Bay there is about to be labled the Official 2008 EPAC Incubator for Tropical Systems. This is the Fifth one, and the first four turned right into Tropical Storms.

000
Wtpz35 Knhc 060235
Tcpep5
Bulletin
Tropical Depression Five-e Advisory Number 2
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep052008
800 Pm Pdt Sat Jul 05 2008

...tropical Depression Spreading Rainbands Across The Coast Of
Mexico...little Change In Strength...

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Southwestern Coast Of Mexico From Acapulco To Zihuatanejo. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

At 800 Pm Pdt the Broad Center Of Tropical Depression Five-e Was Located Near Latitude 14.5 North...longitude 100.0 West Or About 165 Miles south Of Acapulco Mexico And About 245 Miles outh-southeast Of Zihuatanejo Mexico.

The Depression Is Generally Moving Toward The Northwest Near 7 Mph. A Slow Motion Toward The Northwest Is Forecast During The Next Couple Of Days. On The Forecast Track...the Center Of The Depression Is Expected To Move Near The Coast Of Mexico In The Warning Area. Some Erratic Motion Could Occur Tonight And Sunday As The Depression Organizes.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 30 Mph with Higher Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours... And The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm On Sunday.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb.

The Depression Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfalls Accumulations Of 4 To 6 Inches Along The Coast Of Southwestern Mexico With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of Up To 10 Inches. These Rains Could Cause Life-threatening Flash Floods And Mudslides...especially Over Mountainous Terrain.

Repeating The 800 Pm Pdt Position...14.5 N...100.0 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 7 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...30 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 1100 Pm Pdt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 200 Am Pdt.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tcdep5
Tropical Depression Five-e Discussion Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep052008
200 Am Pdt Sun Jul 06 2008

Tropical Depression Five-e Has Been Problematic This Evening In
Determining Its Position And Track. A 0108z Quikscat Pass And
Nighttime Satellite Imagery Suggested A Much Farther West Position
Than Had Been Previously Carried. However...both The Quikscat Pass
And A Subsequent Ascat Pass Were Ambiguous As To Whether A Closed
Circulation Center Exists Currently. The Intensity Has Perhaps
Been More Readily Assessed As Dvorak Classifications And Both
Scatterometer Passes Suggest Winds Remain Below Tropical Storm
Force. No Change In The Initial Intensity Is Indicated.

Assuming That A Closed Center Exists In The Cyclone...a Rough Motion
Vector Of 300/8 Is Analyzed. All Models Indicate A Weak Ridge
Remaining In Place North Of The Cyclone Throughout The Forecast
Period. The Track Guidance As A Whole Brings The Cyclone Close To
The Mexican Coast Within The Next Two Days. Some Of The Guidance
Just Skirts The Coast...while Others Dissipate The Surface
Circulation Of The Depression Over The Mexican Mainland And Advect
A Mid-level Vortex Off To The Northwest. All Of The Guidance Is
Problematic... However...because Of The Large Relocation That Was
Needed Earlier. By Days 4 And 5...the Cyclone Should Bend Back
Toward The West-northwest Or West As It Becomes Steered By The
Lower-level Flow As A Weakening System.

The Cyclone Currently Is Over Warm Waters And Has Abundant Moisture
But Is Being Impacted By Rather Strong Easterly Shear. The Shear
Should Continue Making More Than A Gradual Intensification
Unlikely. The Intensity Prediction Is A Blend Of The Ships And
Gfdl Models...which Spin The Cyclone Up To A 50 Kt Tropical Storm...
And The Hwrf And Lgem Models...which Do Not Intensify It. By Days
4 And 5...the Cyclone Should Begin Weakening Over The Cooler Waters
Off Of Baja California.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 06/0900z 15.7n 102.2w 25 Kt
12hr Vt 06/1800z 16.4n 103.0w 30 Kt
24hr Vt 07/0600z 17.3n 103.7w 35 Kt
36hr Vt 07/1800z 18.4n 104.4w 40 Kt
48hr Vt 08/0600z 19.3n 105.5w 40 Kt
72hr Vt 09/0600z 21.0n 108.0w 40 Kt
96hr Vt 10/0600z 22.0n 111.0w 35 Kt
120hr Vt 11/0600z 22.5n 114.0w 30 Kt

$$
Forecaster Landsea/knabb

000
Wtpz35 Knhc 061443
Tcpep5
Bulletin
Tropical Depression Five-e Advisory Number 4
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep052008
800 Am Pdt Sun Jul 06 2008

...depression Producing Heavy Rains Along The Coast Of Mexico...

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Southwestern
Coast Of Mexico From Acapulco To Zihuatanejo.

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For The Southwestern Coast Of
Mexico From West Of Zihuatanejo To Manzanillo.

Interests Elsewhere Along The Southwestern Coast Of Mexico From
Puerto Angel To Cabo Corrientes Should Monitor The Progress Of This Depression.

At 800 Am Pdt The Broad Center Of Tropical Depression Five-e Was Located Near Latitude 16.3 North...longitude 102.8 West Or About 125 Miles Southwest Of Zihuatanejo Mexico.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 10 Mph And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue Over The Next Two Days. On The Forecast Track...the Center Of The Tropical Cyclone Will Be Moving Very Near The Southwestern Coast Of Mexico
During The Next 48 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph With Higher Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours...and The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm Later Today.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1005 Mb.

This System Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 4 To 6 Inches Along The Coast Of Southwestern Mexico With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of Up To 10 Inches. These Rains Could Cause Life-threatening Flash Floods And Mudslides...especially Over Mountainous Terrain.

Repeating The 800 Am Pdt Position...16.3 N...102.8 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 1100 Am Pdt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 200 Pm Pdt.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

This is projected to intensify to Tropical Storm Strength:

Wtpz25 Knhc 070847
Tcmep5
Tropical Depression Five-e Forecast/advisory Number 7
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep052008
0900 Utc Mon Jul 07 2008

Tropical Depression Center Located Near 18.7n 102.9w At 07/0900z
Position Accurate Within 40 Nm

Present Movement Toward The North-northwest Or 340 Degrees At 8 Kt

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 1006 Mb
Max Sustained Winds 25 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt.
Winds And Seas Vary Greatly In Each Quadrant. Radii In Nautical
Miles Are The Largest Radii Expected Anywhere In That Quadrant.

Repeat...center Located Near 18.7n 102.9w At 07/0900z
At 07/0600z Center Was Located Near 18.3n 102.7w

Forecast Valid 07/1800z 19.4n 103.5w...remnant Low
Max Wind 20 Kt...gusts 25 Kt.

Forecast Valid 08/0600z...dissipated

Request For 3 Hourly Ship Reports Within 300 Miles Of 18.7n 102.9w

This Is The Last Forecast/advisory Issued By The
National Hurricane Center On This System

$$
Forecaster Landsea/knabb