Thread: An ACTIVE Season Ahead???

Read what Dr Jeff Masters had to say about this today (excerpted)

Is the formation of Bertha a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
Probably. According the the Hurricane FAQ, "as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during JJ have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a JJ storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" condition for a year to produce at least average activity."

...

Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting the development of a tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Monday. The tropics are getting active!


FROM:

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

What does everyone think about THAT???

Originally Posted by canarymoon

What does everyone think about THAT???

It is aweful early for this, but I think it will be an average season. Lived along Hurricane alley for most of my life, hate this time of year, but I always prepare early and hopefully am ready for whatever it brings. Right now our waters on the coast of Charleston, SC are still too cool for anything major, but we still have August and September to get through.

Originally Posted by randm

It is aweful early for this, but I think it will be an average season. Lived along Hurricane alley for most of my life, hate this time of year, but I always prepare early and hopefully am ready for whatever it brings. Right now our waters on the coast of Charleston, SC are still too cool for anything major, but we still have August and September to get through.

My son lived in Charleston when Hugo came through. The eye came right over his house!

My daughter lost everything when Andrew hit Homestead, FL.

Hurricanes are not nice!

Originally Posted by Char

My son lived in Charleston when Hugo came through. The eye came right over his house!

My daughter lost everything when Andrew hit Homestead, FL.

Hurricanes are not nice!

Yes Hugo and Andrew both were nasty. Floyd was no piece of cake either. Get this, my house had minor if any with Hugo, but as Floyd lingered by our coast for hours, the winds were so strong and directional changes weird, my roof got torn up in places, so new roof had to be done. I have witnessed quite a few in my life(big and small), went to Katrina and Rita areas for animal rescue, and all I can say everyone needs to be smart and be really prepared. Still prefer hurricanes over those deadly tornadoes, very little warning and after a year like this season, my! it is getting bad, including here in my neck of woods.

I'm with you on the tornadoes, for sure. Earthquakes, too.

At least with hurricanes, you CAN prepare, though many (foolishly) don't.