Thread: Invest 97E

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 K
NHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BORIS...CENTERED ABOUT 1245 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS...LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FORDEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TOBECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER KNABB

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALSTORM BORIS...CENTERED ABOUT 1300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THESOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSIONDOUGLAS...LOCATED ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWPRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OFTEHUANTEPEC REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THISSYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSIONDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THEWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER AVILA

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2008


Eastern Pacific Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWPRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OFTEHUANTEPEC REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HASSOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAYOR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.

BACK DOWN TO YELLOW (less than 20% chance of development any time soon) this Morning.

Last night, it was orange.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REMAIN LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.

OK- lI know it's way early to trust the models on this one, but have a look anyway. One of them has it hugging the MX coast, another heads it generally towards the Baja, and SHIPS takes it to TS strength by tomorrow:

480
Abpz20 Knhc 042339
Twoep
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Pdt Fri Jul 4 2008

For The Eastern North Pacific...east Of 140 Degrees West Longitude..

Showers And Thunderstorms Associated With A Broad Area Of Low
Pressure Located A Few Hundred Miles South-southeast Of Acapulco
Mexico Have Become A Little Better Organized This Afternoon. Some
Additional Slow Development Of This System Is Possible Over The
Next Couple Of Days As It Moves Slowly West-northwestward.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Back up to Orange

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 K
NHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

500 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING INASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDREDMILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. DESPITE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THATAPPEAR ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...IT IS POSSIBLETHAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXTDAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER KNABB