TS BERTHA-Atlantic - Page 8 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 07-08-2008, 06:02 PM

Tcdat2
Hurricane Bertha Discussion Number 23
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Pm Edt Tue Jul 08 2008

Bertha's Satellite Presentation Continues To Degrade This Afternoon
And Dvorak Data T-numbers Have Fallen During The Last 6 Hours. The
Initial Intensity Is Lowered To 75 Kt Based On An Average Of The
Various Intensity Estimates. Indeed...bertha's Rapid
Intensification Yesterday Has Been Equaled By Its Rapid Weakening
Today. Such Intensity Fluctuations Remain A Forecasting Challenge
And Serve As An Important Reminder For The Uncertainties Associated
With Intensity Forecasts. Given The Current Trend In Satellite
Imagery...continued Weakening Is Possible In The Short-term. Most
Of The Intensity Models Suggest That Bertha Might Even Regain Some
Strength Later In The Forecast As The Shear Relaxes And The Ssts
Increase. Due To The Uncertainty...the Official Forecast Shows
Slight Weakening In The Short-term With Little Change Thereafter.

Bertha Continues Moving Northwestward With An Initial Motion
Estimate Of 310/10. Bertha Should Continue To Gradually Turn
Northward Over The Next Couple Of Days As A Mid-level Ridge Over
The Western Atlantic Weakens And Is Replaced By A Weak Trough. This
Evolution Of The Large-scale Pattern Could Result In The Steering
Currents Becoming Rather Weak Beyond 72 Hours...and Bertha Could
Move Slowly And Erratically Towards The End Of The Forecast. It Is
For This Reason That Interests In Bermuda Should Continue To
Monitor The Progress Of This System. Track Models Have Not Changed
Significantly Since The Last Advisory And Neither Has The Official
Forecast.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 08/2100z 22.7n 54.8w 75 Kt
12hr Vt 09/0600z 23.6n 56.0w 70 Kt
24hr Vt 09/1800z 24.8n 57.4w 65 Kt
36hr Vt 10/0600z 26.0n 58.5w 65 Kt
48hr Vt 10/1800z 27.0n 59.2w 65 Kt
72hr Vt 11/1800z 29.0n 60.0w 60 Kt
96hr Vt 12/1800z 31.0n 59.5w 60 Kt
120hr Vt 13/1800z 33.0n 58.5w 60 Kt

$$
Forecaster Rhome

canarymoon · 07-08-2008, 09:39 PM

Bertha no longer a
Major Hurricane!!!

canarymoon · 07-08-2008, 09:40 PM

000
Wtnt32 Knhc 082032
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Hurricane Bertha Advisory Number 23
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Pm Ast Tue Jul 08 2008

...bertha Weakens To A Category One Hurricane...

At 500 Pm Ast...2100z...the Center Of Hurricane Bertha Was Located
Near Latitude 22.7 North...longitude 54.8 West Or About 620 Miles...
1000 Km...east-northeast Of The Northern Leeward Islands And About
900 Miles...1450 Km...southeast Of Bermuda.

Bertha Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 12 Mph...19 Km/hr. A
Gradual Turn Toward The North-northwest With A Decrease In Forward
Speed Is Expected During The Next Day Or Two.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 85 Mph...140
Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Additional Weakening Is Forecast During
The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 30 Miles...45 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140
Miles...220 Km.

Large Swells And High Surf Could Begin To Affect Portions Of Bermuda
Late Tomorrow.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 980 Mb...28.94 Inches.

Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position...22.7 N...54.8 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...85 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...980 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Pm Ast.

$$
Forecaster Rhome

canarymoon · 07-08-2008, 10:01 PM

canarymoon · 07-08-2008, 10:11 PM

Excerpted from remarks by Dr. Jeff Masters:

Among early season hurricanes that have formed before August 1, Bertha is the sixth strongest early-season Atlantic hurricane on record. Only 12 early season major hurricanes have formed since record keeping began in 1851 . . . Bertha holds the record for the farthest east a major hurricane has formed so early in the season (52°W longitude), easily beating the mark set in 1996 (67°W) by a previous incarnation of Hurricane Bertha. This year's Bertha now holds the record for farthest east formation as a tropical storm, hurricane, and major hurricane, so early in the season.

canarymoon · 07-08-2008, 10:15 PM

Bertha MAY have briefly been a Category 4 hurricane:

Bertha at peak intensity: 21:15 GMT Monday July 7, 2008. At this time, satellite estimates of Bertha's strength were 115 kt (135 mph), making the storm a weak Category 4 hurricane.

from
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

AlanKL · 07-09-2008, 01:36 AM

I'm suppose to leave NJ Sat at 5Pm arriving in Bermuda 9am July 14th(Monday) on Royal Carribean's Explorer of the Seas part of a 5 day cruise. What do you think the cruise lines is going to do with this situation?

canarymoon · 07-09-2008, 08:03 AM

Depending on where (and how strong) the storm is at that point, your itinerary could be altered for the safety of the ship and its passengers. The primary concern of the captain muct be to keep everyone safe. If seas are too high, it won't be possible to dock in Bermuda at all . . .

Be prepared for missed or alternate ports.
Take along your favorite motion sickness remedy, just in case.

sue miller · 07-09-2008, 02:05 PM

We have an eye again, watch for reintensifying

LuLu · 07-09-2008, 02:26 PM

Glad this "biggie" missed our shores and hope it will also miss Bermuda!