TS BERTHA-Atlantic - Page 7 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 07-07-2008, 05:52 PM

Amazing July 7th

sue miller · 07-07-2008, 05:54 PM

I have to admire Bill Read, get it out, warmings are out there, they were conserative before, but now they are waiting for the numbers, not getting the advisioies prepared ahead of time!!

Char · 07-07-2008, 05:56 PM

WOW! How quickly she grew!

canarymoon · 07-07-2008, 06:04 PM

She is already a record breaker. Was even before this. . .

MD11F · 07-08-2008, 02:31 AM

WTNT32 KNHC 080235
TCPAT2
Bulletin
Hurricane Bertha Advisory Number 20
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022008
1100 Pm AST Mon Jul 07 2008

...Powerful Hurricane Bertha Over Open Waters...

At 1100 Pm Ast...0300z...the Eye Of Hurricane Bertha Was Located
Near Latitude 20.8 North...longitude 52.8 West Or About 695 Miles...
1115 Km...east-northeast Of The Northern Leeward Islands And About
1085 Miles...1745 Km...southeast Of Bermuda.

Bertha Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 12 Mph...19 Km/hr. A Gradual Turn To The Northwest With A Decrease In Forward Speed Is
Expected During The Next 24 To 48 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 120 Mph...195 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Bertha Is A Category Three Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Hurricane Scale. Fluctuations In Intensity Are Likely During The
12 To 24 Hours...followed By A Gradual Weakening.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles...35 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115
Miles...185 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 952 Mb...28.11 Inches.

Repeating The 1100 Pm Ast Position...20.8 N...52.8 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...120
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...952 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
500 Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Avila

sue miller · 07-08-2008, 05:51 AM

WTNT32 KNHC 080831
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST TUE JUL 08 2008

...POWERFUL BERTHA MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES...
1085 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1035 MILES...1660 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR TODAY...
BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...21.4 N...53.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

canarymoon · 07-08-2008, 07:51 AM

Mainteined her strength overnight - and moving NW

canarymoon · 07-08-2008, 07:55 AM

canarymoon · 07-08-2008, 08:07 AM

Folks in Bermuda are monitoring the situatinn very closely:

We are still monitoring now Hurricane Bertha but it looks now like she may pass to our east as a major Cat. 1 hurricane at present she is now a major Cat 3 the forecast is for her to weaken some after 48 hours. So as it stands right now we have to wait and see as the routing and strength predictions have changed so much in the last week its better to wait for a few more days for a better and more accurate prediction

sue miller · 07-08-2008, 01:20 PM

Wtnt42 Knhc 081440
Tcdat2
Hurricane Bertha Discussion Number 22
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
1100 Am Edt Tue Jul 08 2008

Conventional And Microwave Imagery Show A Rapid Degradation Of
Bertha's Structure During The Last 6 Hours. The Eye Has
Disappeared And Cloud Tops Have Warmed Considerably. There Is Also
Evidence In Microwave Imagery That The Western Portion Of The
Eyewall Has Eroded. A Blend Of The Final T And Ci Numbers From The
Dvorak Technique Supports An Initial Intensity Of 90 Kt And Latest
Objective T Numbers Suggest An Even Lower Intensity. The Initial
Intensity Is Conservatively Set At 90 Kt. It Would Appear That
Bertha Has Finally Encountered The Higher Shear Environment We've
Been Forecasting. Additionally...the Cyclone Is Moving Over
Slightly Cooler Waters And There Are Some Indications In Satellite
Imagery That It Could Be Entraining Dry Air. Bottom Line...the
Environment Looks Rather Hostile And Bertha Should Continue To
Weaken In The Short-term. Towards The End Of The Forecast
Period...the Shear Could Relax And Ssts Increase So There Is Some
Potential For A Little Re-intensification. However...given The
Uncertainty In Intensity Forecasting...the Official Forecast Merely
Shows Slow Weakening Through The Forecast Period And Is In Good
Agreement With A Consensus Of The Various Intensity Models.

Bertha Has Been Moving A Little To The Right Of The Previous
Estimate Or 315/9. Bertha Should Continue To Gradually Turn
Northward Over The Next Couple Of Days As A Mid-level Ridge Over
The Western Atlantic Weakens And Is Replaced By A Weak Trough.
Since The Steering Currents Could Become Rather Weak As A Result Of
This Evolution...bertha Could Move Slowly And Erratically
Towards The End Of The Forecast. It Is For This Reason That
Interests In Bermuda Should Continue To Monitor The Progress Of
This System. Track Models Have Not Changed Significantly Since The
Last Forecast So Only Cosmetic Changes To The Official Track
Forecast Are Needed At This Time.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 08/1500z 22.1n 53.8w 90 Kt
12hr Vt 09/0000z 23.1n 54.9w 85 Kt
24hr Vt 09/1200z 24.3n 56.4w 80 Kt
36hr Vt 10/0000z 25.5n 57.8w 80 Kt
48hr Vt 10/1200z 26.6n 58.7w 75 Kt
72hr Vt 11/1200z 28.5n 59.5w 70 Kt
96hr Vt 12/1200z 30.5n 59.5w 65 Kt
120hr Vt 13/1200z 32.5n 58.5w 65 Kt

$$
Forecaster Rhome