Thread: TS BERTHA-Atlantic

Originally Posted by sue miller

Close to hurricane strength, still early for models to "know" where it is going, Rule of thumb, if you are in the 5 day cone, you probably won't get it!!

Still. . .
Look at how the models shifted overnight:

And not just one of othem, either!

Ugh and still a long way to go!!

The models may well shift again and again in the next few days, but just the fact that three of them seem to be eyeing Bermuda right now is something to really watch - IMO.

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 7
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Pm Edt Fri Jul 04 2008

Bertha Had A Rather Ragged Appearance In Satellite Imagery Around
Mid-day...however...since Then A New Burst Of Convection With Very
Cold Cloud Tops Has Developed Near And North Of The Center. Dvorak
Intensity Estimates From Tafb And Sab Still Support An Initial
Intensity Of 45 Kt. Little Change In Intensity Is Expected During
The Next 24 Hours As Bertha Traverses Over Cooler Waters.
Thereafter...the Ssts Will Increase Along The Projected
Track...however...vertical Shear Is Forecast To Increase In The 3-5
Day Time Period. The New Intensity Forecast Is Unchanged From The
Previous Advisory And Keeps Bertha's Intensity Below Hurricane
Strength. The Gfdl Continues To Show Bertha Reaching Hurricane
Status...but The Ships Model Has Backed Off A Little...and Is In
Line With The Official Forecast.

Bertha Continues To Accelerate And Is Now Moving West-northwestward
Or 290/16. Little Change In Heading Is Expected During The Next
2-3 Days As The Storm Remains South Of A Mid-tropospheric Ridge.
The Gfdl Track Has Now Shifted Westward And Has Joined The Remainder
Of The Model Guidance...except For The Hwrf Which Still Insists On A
Northwestward Turn. The New Track Forecast Remains Very Similar To
The Previous Advisory Through 48 Hours But Has Shifted Farther
Southwestward At Days 3-5... In Good Agreement With The Latest
Model Consensus And The Ecmwf.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 04/2100z 15.5n 31.6w 45 Kt
12hr Vt 05/0600z 16.2n 34.2w 45 Kt
24hr Vt 05/1800z 16.8n 37.8w 45 Kt
36hr Vt 06/0600z 17.4n 41.5w 50 Kt
48hr Vt 06/1800z 17.9n 45.2w 55 Kt
72hr Vt 07/1800z 19.2n 51.5w 60 Kt
96hr Vt 08/1800z 21.5n 56.0w 60 Kt
120hr Vt 09/1800z 23.5n 60.5w 60 Kt

$$
Forecaster Brown

They have adjusted
the track

000
Wtnt32 Knhc 050838
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 9
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Am Ast Sat Jul 05 2008

...bertha Speeding Along Over The Tropical Eastern Atlantic...

At 500 Am Ast The Center Of Tropical Storm Bertha Was Located Near Latitude 16.5 North...longitude 35.3 West Or about 750 Miles West Of The Cape Verde Islands.

Bertha Is moving Toward The West-northwest Near 21 Mph And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next Couple Of Days. Bertha Will Be About Half Way Between The West Coast Of Africa And The Lesser Antilles By Tonight.

maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph With Higher Gusts. Little Change In Strength Is Forecast Today...but Gradual Strengthening Is Possible By Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1000 Mb.

Repeating The 500 Am Ast Position...16.5 N...35.3 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 21 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...50
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1000 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Knabb