Thread: TS BERTHA-Atlantic

Dickie already mentioned it raining the whole time, I assured him the only way we are leaving early is if the roof is letting water in We found out after Wilma, if there is no damage only a power loss, you don't have to leave if booked. No new people can get in

000
Wtnt32 Knhc 032037
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Pm Ast Thu Jul 03 2008

...squally Weather Moving Through The Southern Cape Verde
Islands...


At 500 Pm Ast The Center Of Tropical Storm Bertha Was Located Near Latitude 13.6 North...longitude 25.6 West Or About 105 Miles Southwest Of The Southern Most Cape Verde Islands.

Bertha Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 12 Mph. A General West-northwestward Motion With Some Increase In Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph With Higher Gusts. Some Gradual Strengthening Is Forecast Over The Next Day Or Two.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb.

The Center Of Bertha Will Be Moving Away From The Southern Cape Verde Islands Tonight And Thursday...however...outer Rainbands Will Continue To Bring Locally Heavy Rainfall And Gusty Winds To Portions Of The Cape Verde Islands During The Next 24 Hours.

Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position...13.6 N...25.6 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...40
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Pm Ast.

$$
Forecaster Brown

From Dr Jeff Masters today (excerpt)

The hurricane season of 2008 sets a new record

Today's formation of Bertha at 25° West longitude is the farthest east a tropical storm has ever formed in the Atlantic so early in the season. It is also the farthest east a tropical storm has formed in the month of July. Reliable records of Eastern Atlantic storms go back to 1967, the beginning of the geostationary satellite era.


FROM:
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

She sure looks good right now

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 5
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Am Edt Fri Jul 04 2008

The Forecast Reasoning Has Not Changed Too Much. The First Two Days
Of The Track Forecast Have Been Adjusted Slightly Northward...
Mainly To Account For The Change In The Initial Motion.
Thereafter...once Bertha Finds Itself Due South Of The Mid-level
Ridge To Its North...the track Has Been Sped Up And Edged A Little
To The Left Or West...in Accordance With A Westward Shift In Most
Of The Models. All Of The Models Still Forecast A Weakness In The
Ridge To Allow Bertha To Turn To The Right Late In The Forecast
Period...but Recent Runs Have Been Trending Toward Delaying This
Turn. The New Official Track Forecast Is Kept Close To The Model
Consensus...but The Model Spread Is Substantial At Days 4-5. The
Models That Forecast A Stronger Bertha...such As The
Gfdl...forecast More Of A Northwestward Motion By Day 5...while
Models Such As The Ecmwf And Ukmet Insist On A Weaker Cyclone
Continuing West-northwestward. The Official Intensity
Forecast...like The Track Forecast...is Close To The
Consensus...taking A Strong Tropical Storm Down The Middle Of The
Guidance Envelope...in Closest Agreement With The Lgem Guidance.
Strengthening Should Be Limited By Cool Waters During The Next Two
Days...and By Increasing Shear On Days 4 And 5. It Is Notable That
The Gfdl And Hwrf Intensity Forecasts Are Very Much In
Disagreement...indicative Of Great Uncertainty In The Intensity
Forecast As Well.

Darn! It looks like it might impact Bermuda on the new projected course.

000
Wtnt42 Knhc 040859
Tcdat2
Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 5
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Am Edt Fri Jul 04 2008

A Strong Burst Of Deep Convection Began At About 05z...resulting In
Subjective Dvorak Intensity Estimates At 06z Of 45-55 Kt. These
Estimates...however...were Contingent Upon The Low-level
Circulation Center Being Located Much Farther North Than Previously
Thought...and Right In The Middle Of The Convection. Passive
Microwave Images From Trmm At 0146z And Amsr-e At 0326z Suggest The
Low-level Center Has Been Moving North Of The Previous Motion
Estimate...but Beneath The Southern Portion Of The Cold Cloud Top
Canopy. Since 06z...the Cloud Tops Have Warmed A Bit...so I Do
Not Think The Dvorak Estimates Would Be As High Now. Best I Can
Tell From First Light Visible Images...the Low-level Center Seems To
Be Moving Along The Heading Suggested By The Microwave Imagery...or
290/12... Beneath The Southern Portion Of The Deep Convection. The
Initial Intensity Will Be Held At 40 Kt For Now...to See If The
Deep Convection Persists As Bertha Heads Toward Slightly Cooler
Waters Today.

The Forecast Reasoning Has Not Changed Too Much. The First Two Days
Of The Track Forecast Have Been Adjusted Slightly Northward...
Mainly To Account For The Change In The Initial Motion.
Thereafter...once Bertha Finds Itself Due South Of The Mid-level
Ridge To Its North...the Track Has Been Sped Up And Edged A Little
To The Left Or West...in Accordance With A Westward Shift In Most
Of The Models. All Of The Models Still Forecast A Weakness In The
Ridge To Allow Bertha To Turn To The Right Late In The Forecast
Period...but Recent Runs Have Been Trending Toward Delaying This
Turn. The New Official Track Forecast Is Kept Close To The Model
Consensus...but The Model Spread Is Substantial At Days 4-5. The
Models That Forecast A Stronger Bertha...such As The
Gfdl...forecast More Of A Northwestward Motion By Day 5...while
Models Such As The Ecmwf And Ukmet Insist On A Weaker Cyclone
Continuing West-northwestward. The Official Intensity
Forecast...like The Track Forecast...is Close To The
Consensus...taking A Strong Tropical Storm Down The Middle Of The
Guidance Envelope...in Closest Agreement With The Lgem Guidance.
Strengthening Should Be Limited By Cool Waters During The Next Two
Days...and By Increasing Shear On Days 4 And 5. It Is Notable That
The Gfdl And Hwrf Intensity Forecasts Are Very Much In
Disagreement...indicative Of Great Uncertainty In The Intensity
Forecast As Well.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 04/0900z 14.2n 28.3w 40 Kt
12hr Vt 04/1800z 15.0n 30.6w 45 Kt
24hr Vt 05/0600z 15.9n 34.0w 45 Kt
36hr Vt 05/1800z 16.6n 37.7w 50 Kt
48hr Vt 06/0600z 17.3n 41.4w 55 Kt
72hr Vt 07/0600z 19.0n 48.0w 60 Kt
96hr Vt 08/0600z 21.5n 53.0w 60 Kt
120hr Vt 09/0600z 25.0n 56.5w 60 Kt

$$
Forecaster Knabb

Close to hurricane strength, still early for models to "know" where it is going, Rule of thumb, if you are in the 5 day cone, you probably won't get it!!

000
Wtnt32 Knhc 040843
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 5
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Am Ast Fri Jul 04 2008

...bertha Moving Away From The Cape Verde Islands...

At 500 Am Ast...0900z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Bertha Was
Located Near Latitude 14.2 North...longitude 28.3 West Or About 315
Miles...505 Km...west-southwest Of The Cape Verde Islands.

Bertha Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 14 Mph...22 Km/hr.
A General West-northwestward Motion And An Increase In Forward
Speed Are Expected During The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph...75 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Slow Strengthening Of Bertha Is Possible During The Next
Couple Of Days.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km
From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1002 Mb...29.59 Inches.

Repeating The 500 Am Ast Position...14.2 N...28.3 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 14 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...45
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1002 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Knabb