Thread: TS BERTHA-Atlantic

bye bye Bertha!

Let's hope so.

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 58
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
1100 Am Edt Thu Jul 17 2008

A Quikscat Pass At 0912 Utc Suggested That The Maximum Winds Of
Bertha Were About 50 Kt At That Time. Since Then...new
Thunderstorms Have Developed In The Eastern Semicircle Of The
Storm. Although Satellite Classifications Are Decreasing...i'm
Hesitant To Lower The Winds Too Much Based On The Quikscat Data And
The Resilency Of The System. 50 Kt Will Be Used As The Initial
Intensity. Little Change In Strength Is Forecast For The Next Day
Or So In Agreement With Most Guidance. However...it Is Tempting To
Lower The Winds A Little More Before Extratropical Transition
Occurs. The Official Forecast Is Very Similar To The Previous
Forecast And Is Below Most Of The Intensity Guidance. Bertha May
Become A Large Powerful Extratropical Low In The High Latitudes Of
The North Atlantic By Day 5.

The Storm Appears To Have Turned Toward The East-southeast At About
8 Kt. The Cyclone Should Begin Its Motion Toward The Northeast By
Tomorrow As It Is Steered Around A Middle- To Upper-level Low To
The North. Model Guidance Is In Good Agreement On The Track And
Little Change Is Made To The Official Forecast. Thereafter The
Biggest Question Is Whether A New Middle-latitude Trough Will
Capture Bertha...like The Ukmet/ecmwf Shows...or The Storm Will
Remain A More Separate Entity Like The Gfs/gfdl/hwrf Solutions.
The Offical Forecast Leans On The Western Side Of The
Guidance...showing A Little More Trough Interaction.

Bertha Could Become One Of The Top 10 Longest-lived Storms In
History If It Survives Until The Weekend.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 17/1500z 34.2n 58.4w 50 Kt
12hr Vt 18/0000z 34.1n 56.9w 45 Kt
24hr Vt 18/1200z 35.2n 54.5w 45 Kt
36hr Vt 19/0000z 37.3n 51.8w 45 Kt
48hr Vt 19/1200z 39.3n 49.1w 45 Kt
72hr Vt 20/1200z 43.5n 43.0w 45 Kt...becoming Extratropical
96hr Vt 21/1200z 51.0n 34.0w 50 Kt...extratropical
120hr Vt 22/1200z 57.5n 22.0w 50 Kt...extratropical

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
Wtnt32 Knhc 172040
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 59
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Pm Ast Thu Jul 17 2008

...bertha Turns Toward The East...

At 500 Pm Ast the Center Of Tropical Storm Bertha Was Located Near Latitude 34.0 North...longitude 57.2 West Or About 455 Miles east-northeast Of Bermuda And About 905 Miles south-southwest Of Cape Race Newfoundland.

Bertha Is Moving Toward The East Near 12 Mph and This Motion Is Expected To Continue Overnight With An Increase In Forward Speed And A Turn Toward The Northeast On Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 60 Mph with Higher Gusts. Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 997 Mb.

Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position...34.0 N...57.2 W. Movement Toward...east Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...60 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...997 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 1100 Pm Ast.

$$
Forecaster Blake

The Energizer Bunny
could take lessons
from Bertha!

000
Wtnt32 Knhc 180833
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 61
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Am Ast Fri Jul 18 2008

...tenacious Bertha Refuses To Weaken...

At 500 Am Ast The Center Of Tropical Storm Bertha Was Located Near Latitude 34.8 North...longitude 53.7 West Or About 825 Miles South Of Cape Race Newfoundland.

Bertha Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 17 Mph. This Motion Is Expected To Continue With A Gradual Increase In Forward Speed During The Next 24 To 48 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 60 Mph With Higher Gusts. Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours But Bertha Should Become Extratropical By Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 997 Mb.

Repeating The 500 Am Ast Position...34.8 N...53.7 W. Movement Toward...northeast Near 17 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...60 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...997 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 1100 Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Unbelievably,
BERTHA
is a HURRICANE
AGAIN

000
Wtnt32 Knhc 182028
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Hurricane Bertha Advisory Number 63
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Pm Ast Fri Jul 18 2008

...bertha Becomes A Hurricane Again...

At 500 Pm Ast the Center Of Hurricane Bertha Was Located Near Latitude 37.6 North...longitude 50.6 West Or About 640 Miles south-southeast Of Cape Race Newfoundland.

Bertha Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 22 Mph and This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next Couple Of Days With An Increase In Forward Speed.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph with Higher Gusts. Bertha Should Slowly Weaken Over The Next Couple Of Days And Begin To Lose Tropical Characteristics Late On Saturday.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 45 Miles from The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 175 Miles.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 989 Mb.

Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position...37.6 N...50.6 W. Movement Toward...northeast Near 22 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...989 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 1100 Pm Ast.

$$
Forecaster Blake

That is just so unbelievable!!! Who wudda thunk it?

I believe it. It hung around Bermuda just long enough so we lost Monday in Bermuda and the Bermudian governement closed all the beaches for Tuesday too even though it was beautiful weather there on Tuesday morning. Beach tours were cancelled for the most part and those that tried to snorkle had pretty obscure water views due to the storms' turbulence. Fortunately my wife and I had been too Bermuda before so I had a chance to lose more money in Blackjack. I believe the captain made a decision in NY that he wasn't going into Bermuda Mopnday even though he said it was
"open possibility." My GPS leaving NYC showed a cruise speed of only 12-13 mph which extrapolates to Tuesday arrival. He would have had to run at 22 MPH at least initially if he thought we might make Monday. He could have been more up-front with us.