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Old 07-13-2008, 08:44 AM canarymoon is offline     #141 (permalink)
Bertha has been downgraded
to a Tropical Storm

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Old 07-13-2008, 08:48 AM canarymoon is offline     #142 (permalink)
8 AM Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 131135
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
800 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008

...BERTHA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

AT 800 AM AST THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...29.8 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Old 07-13-2008, 08:59 AM canarymoon is offline     #143 (permalink)
The "Danger Area" for mariners has widened a little because of the expectation that Bertha's movement may be a bit "erratic" once she finally gets moving again . . .



Old 07-13-2008, 10:27 AM canarymoon is offline     #144 (permalink)
The BWS (Bermuda Weather Service) is forecasting that Bertha will come within 57 nautical miles of them at 5 PM tomorrow...



Old 07-13-2008, 12:27 PM canarymoon is offline     #145 (permalink)
Bertha beginning to move NW



Old 07-13-2008, 12:30 PM Char is offline     #146 (permalink)
Wanna bet she'll wobble first?

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Old 07-13-2008, 12:31 PM canarymoon is offline     #147 (permalink)
000
Wtnt32 Knhc 131435
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 42
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
1100 Am Ast Sun Jul 13 2008

...bertha Beginning To Move Slowly Toward The Northwest...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For Bermuda.

At 1100 Am Ast the Center Of Tropical Storm Bertha Was Located Near Latitude 30.2 North...longitude 63.0 West Or About 180 Miles southeast Of Bermuda.

Bertha Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 2 Mph and This General Motion With A Gradual Turn To The North Is Expected During The Next 24 To 36 Hours. On This Track...the Center Of Bertha Is Expected To Slowly Pass Not Far To The Southeast And East Of Bermuda During The Next Day Or So...although The Motion Could Be Erratic At Times And Could Bring The Center Of Bertha Closer To Bermuda Than The Forecast Track Indicates.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 65 Mph with Higher Gusts. Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Will Check Bertha Later Today.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 988 Mb.

Large Swells And High Surf Are Affecting Bermuda...and These Conditions Are Expected To Persist For The Next Couple Of Days.

The Outer Bands Of Bertha Could Produce Rainfall Amounts In Bermuda Of 2 To 4 Inches During The Next Couple Of Days.

Repeating The 1100 Am Ast Position...30.2 N...63.0 W. Movement Toward...northwest Near 2 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...65 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...988 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 200 Pm Ast Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 500 Pm Ast.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Old 07-13-2008, 12:32 PM canarymoon is offline     #148 (permalink)
It this NW forward motion continues, Bertha will come closer to Bermuda than it had been thought she would.

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Old 07-13-2008, 12:33 PM canarymoon is offline     #149 (permalink)

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Old 07-13-2008, 12:34 PM canarymoon is offline     #150 (permalink)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Char View Post
Wanna bet she'll wobble first?
This could actually be a'wobble'
Let's hope so... and that it's a small one.



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