Projections now have her slower moving than before... she could still be affecting Bermuda on Monday - IF she does affect Bermuda at all... The expect her to turn away, but the question is how near will she get before making the expected turn?
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION AT AROUND 72 HOURS...NOT FAR EAST OF BERMUDA...AND BERTHA COULD MOVE ERRATICALLY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THEREFORE... INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONSIDERING THE COMBINED FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK ... INTENSITY ... AND SIZE OF BERTHA ... THERE IS ALREADY A 43% CHANCE THAT BERMUDA WILL EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...
the NWS has issued warning for East central Florida (i used my zip of 32903)for rip currents and swell. Hope it misses Bremuda and anyone else.
the surfers will be happy with this, swimmers may not.
"...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOY DATA INDICATE THE LEADING SWELLS FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE BERTHA HAVE ENTERED THE COASTAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH INITIALLY QUITE SMALL...THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE A
MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM
ALONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY. STORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE EAST SWELLS GENERATED BY DISTANT HURRICANE
BERTHA...ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE APPARENT FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY...AND COULD MAKE NAVIGATING
INLETS MORE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT."
Hurricane Bertha Advisory Number 29
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Am Ast Thu Jul 10 2008
...bertha Moving A Little Slower To The Northwest...
It Is Still Too Early To Determine The Extent To Which Bertha Could
Impact Bermuda. Interests On That Island Should Closely Monitor
The Progress Of Bertha During The Next Several Days.
For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.
At 500 Am Ast...0900z...the Center Of Hurricane Bertha Was Located
Near Latitude 26.0 North...longitude 59.4 West Or About 545 Miles...
875 Km...southeast Of Bermuda.
Bertha Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 9 Mph...15 Km/hr. A
Gradual Turn Toward The North With A Decrease In Forward Speed Is
Expected During The Next Couple Of Days.
Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 105 Mph...165 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Bertha Is A Category Two Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Some Strengthening Is Possible During The Next 24 Hours.
Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 30 Miles...45 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140
Miles...220 Km.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 970 Mb...28.64 Inches.
Large Swells And High Surf Are Expected To Affect Portions Of
Bermuda During The Next Few Days.
Repeating The 500 Am Ast Position...26.0 N...59.4 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 9 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...105 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...970 Mb.
The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Am Ast.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Wtnt42 Knhc 100834
Tcdat2
Hurricane Bertha Discussion Number 29
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Am Edt Thu Jul 10 2008
Dvorak T-numbers Remain At 5.0 Corresponding To 90 Kt...which Is
Used For The Advisory Intensity. There Has Been Some Erosion Of
Deep Convection Over The Southwest Quadrant Of The
Hurricane...probably Due To The Combination Of Increased
South-southwesterly Shear And The Intrusion Of Drier Air. Given
This Evolution...i Have Elected To Back Off Slightly On The
Intensity Prediction. The Current Official Wind Speed Forecast Is
A Blend Of The Statistical/dynamical Guidance Ships And Lgem Along
With The Purely Dynamical Models Gfdl And Hwrf. Sea Surface
Temperatures Should Remain Sufficiently Warm For Strengthening
Through At Least 3-4 Days...but The Ships Model Diagnoses 27-31 Kt
Of Vertical Shear In 3-5 Days. Therefore Weakening Is Likely To
Occur In The Latter Part Of The Forecast Period.
Bertha's Forward Motion Has Slowed A Bit And Is Now About 315/8. An
Anticyclone To The North Of The Hurricane Will Continue To Slide
Eastward Over The Next Day Or Two...so The Track Of The Hurricane
Is Likely To Bend Toward The North Through 48 Hours. Beyond That
Time...the Track Forecast Is Complicated By The Fact That The
Dynamical Models...in Particular The Gfs...show A Mid-level
Anticyclone Developing To The North Of Bertha In Around 72 Hours.
This Development Would At Least Retard The Northward Progress Of
The Hurricane And...if The Anticyclone Turns Out To Be Strong
Enough...could Even Force A Turn To The Left As Indicated By The
Gfs. The Gfdl And Hwrf Models Respond To The Increased Ridging
Mainly By Slowing The Tropical Cyclone As It Crosses 30n Latitude.
It Is Certainly Possible For Bertha To Move Erratically In About 3
Days...but The Details Of That Motion Are Of Course Unknown. By
The End Of The Forecast Period...the Flow Ahead Of A Large-
Amplitude 500 Mb Trough Nearing The U.s East Coast Is Expected To
Cause Bertha To Move North-northeastward With Some Increase In
Forward Speed.
The Radii Of 12-ft Seas Have Been Adjusted By The Tropical Analysis
And Forecast Branch Based On A Jason Satellite Altimeter Pass Over
Bertha...which Is Quite Consistent With The Latest Output From The
North Atlantic Hurricane Wave Model.
Wtnt32 Knhc 101431
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Hurricane Bertha Advisory Number 30
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
1100 Am Ast Thu Jul 10 2008
...weaker Bertha Moving Northwestward...swells Now Affecting
Bermuda...
It Is Still Too Early To Determine The Extent To Which Bertha Could
Impact Bermuda. Interests On That Island Should Closely Monitor
The Progress Of Bertha During The Next Several Days.
For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.
At 1100 Am Ast...1500z...the Center Of Hurricane Bertha Was Located
Near Latitude 26.5 North...longitude 60.2 West Or About 485 Miles...
785 Km...southeast Of Bermuda.
Bertha Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 9 Mph...15 Km/hr. A
Gradual Turn Toward The North And A Decrease In Forward Speed Are
Expected During The Next Couple Of Days.
Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 90 Mph...
150 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts...making Bertha A Category One
Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. While Bertha Has Weakened
This Morning...it Could Re-intensify During The Next 24 Hours.
Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 30 Miles...45 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140
Miles...220 Km.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 977 Mb...28.85 Inches.
Large Swells And High Surf Have Started To Affected Bermuda. These
Conditions Are Expected To Persist For The Next Few Days.
Repeating The 1100 Am Ast Position...26.5 N...60.2 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 9 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...90 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...977 Mb.
The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
500 Pm Ast.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 101400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 10 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-040
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE BERTHA.....AL022008
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0102A BERTHA
C. 11/1215Z
D. 28.9N 61.9W
E. 11/1730Z TO 11/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX HURRICANE BERTHA
NEAR 30.4N 62.0W AT 12/1800Z.
...bertha Still A Northwestward-moving Category One Hurricane...
It Is Still Too Early To Determine The Extent To Which Bertha Could
Impact Bermuda. Interests On That Island Should Closely Monitor
The Progress Of Bertha During The Next Several Days.
For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.
At 500 Pm Ast...2100z...the Center Of Hurricane Bertha Was Located
Near Latitude 27.2 North...longitude 60.8 West Or About 425 Miles...
685 Km...southeast Of Bermuda.
Bertha Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 10 Mph...17 Km/hr. A
Turn Toward The North And A Decrease In Forward Speed Are Expected
During The Next 48 Hours. On The Forecast Track...bertha Will
Slowly Approach Bermuda Friday And Saturday.
Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 85 Mph...
140 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Bertha Is A Category One Hurricane
On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Strength Are
Possible During The Next 48 Hours.
Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 30 Miles...45 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140
Miles...220 Km.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 980 Mb...28.94 Inches.
Large Swells And High Surf Have Started To Affected Bermuda. These
Conditions Are Expected To Persist For The Next Few Days.
Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position...27.2 N...60.8 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...85 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...980 Mb.
The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Pm Ast.
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