TS BERTHA-Atlantic - Page 4 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

canarymoon · 07-05-2008, 11:29 AM

The forecast
The models are now more confident that Bertha will not take a turn to the north east of Bermuda, with two models--the UKMET and NOGAPS--calling for the storm to pass very near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. These islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions as early as Tuesday night, even though the current official track keeps Bertha well north of the islands. A threat to the East Coast of the U.S. is now possible, with such an event most likely to occur about ten days from now. It is also possible that high wind shear will tear apart Bertha (as predicted by the ECMWF model), or that the storm will recurve to the north just east of North Carolina, missing the U.S. The long range track of Bertha is highly uncertain, and it is too early to speculate how likely each of these scenarios is.

(emphasis added)

FROM: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=975&tstamp=200807

canarymoon · 07-05-2008, 12:39 PM

canarymoon · 07-05-2008, 12:40 PM

Their track moves it along pretty quickly!

sue miller · 07-05-2008, 12:45 PM

It is moving at 21 MPH Also a ridge moving in

Ridge building over NE - due west at 174 hrs toward FL.

canarymoon · 07-05-2008, 12:53 PM

holy cow

sue miller · 07-05-2008, 04:46 PM

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 11
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008
500 Pm Edt Sat Jul 05 2008

Bertha Has Changed Little In Organization Since This Morning. The
Cyclone Continues To Maintain An Area Of Convection Near And To The
North Of The Center. Dvorak Intensity Estimates Are A Unanimous 45
Kt...which Remains The Initial Intensity. Environmental Conditions
Are Forecast To Become More Conducive For Strengthening Along The
Projected Path. Bertha Is Currently Over Ssts Of About 25 Degrees
Celsius...but The Ssts Will Be Increasing By About One Degree Per
Day During The Next 3 Days. Shear Is Expected To Remain Low At
Least During The Next 72 Hours...but Projected To Increase A Little
Thereafter. The New Intensity Forecast Is Unchanged From The
Previous Advisory Which Showed Bertha Becoming A Hurricane In About
3 Days...followed By Little Change In Strength At Days 4 And 5. The
Intensity Forecast Is Similar To The Consensus Of The Hwrf...
Gfdl...lgem And Ships Models.

Bertha Continues Racing Westward With An Initial Motion Of 275/18.
A General West To West-northwestward Motion Should Continue For The
Next Couple Of Days. Thereafter...there Is A Very Large Spread In
The Model Guidance. The Models Which Maintain A Deeper And Stronger
Bertha Turn The Cyclone More Northwestward In Response To A
Weakness In The Ridge Currently Over The Central Atlantic.
Meanwhile...the Models That Depict A Weaker And Shallower Cyclone
Continue To Track It Westward South Of The Low-level Ridge Over The
Atlantic. The Nhc Forecast Track Assumes That Bertha Will Remain
Deep Enough To Decelerate Due To The Weaker Ridge. The New
Forecast Track Is Just A Little South Of The Previous Advisory
Through 72 Hours...but Similar Thereafter...and In Best Agreement
With The Ecmwf...nogaps...and The Guna Model Consensus.

It Is Too Early To Determine If Bertha Will Ever Pose A Threat
To Any Land Areas.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 05/2100z 16.7n 39.3w 45 Kt
12hr Vt 06/0600z 17.1n 42.1w 45 Kt
24hr Vt 06/1800z 17.8n 45.9w 50 Kt
36hr Vt 07/0600z 18.5n 49.5w 55 Kt
48hr Vt 07/1800z 19.3n 52.8w 60 Kt
72hr Vt 08/1800z 20.8n 58.1w 65 Kt
96hr Vt 09/1800z 22.5n 63.0w 65 Kt
120hr Vt 10/1800z 25.0n 67.0w 65 Kt

$$
Forecaster Brown

sue miller · 07-05-2008, 04:47 PM

sue miller · 07-05-2008, 07:48 PM

A burst of convection and it is trying to wrap around, wicked kool shot

jsme · 07-05-2008, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by canarymoon

From Dr Jeff Masters today (excerpt)

The hurricane season of 2008 sets a new record

Today's formation of Bertha at 25° West longitude is the farthest east a tropical storm has ever formed in the Atlantic so early in the season. It is also the farthest east a tropical storm has formed in the month of July. Reliable records of Eastern Atlantic storms go back to 1967, the beginning of the geostationary satellite era.

FROM:
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

This makes you think of 100's of years ago when they did not have this type of information and all those ships that went down. All those people. Back then no one knew where or when a ship went down or for that matter why it did. Only figured it out when the ship did not dock at a schedule place.

sue miller · 07-05-2008, 10:57 PM

599
WTNT42 KNHC 060234
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BERTHA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY...45 KT.
BERTHA IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 27 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM IN 36-48 HOURS.
SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
BEYOND 48 HOURS DUE TO SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND THE RESULTING
DIFFERENCES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BERTHA MIGHT EXPERIENCE.
A TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WOULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING WHILE
A TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES BERTHA INTO AN AREA
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
BEYOND 72 HOURS. THIS NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS.

BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
280/18. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS COURTESY OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER...
THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND TRACK MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK MODELS SPAN NEARLY 1300 MILES AT DAY 5 WITH THE UKMET
MODEL KEEPING BERTHA HEADED WESTWARD AND THE HWRF TURNING THE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN
BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OF BERTHA. ACCORDINGLY...IT
IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL OR WILL NOT POSE A
THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.0N 41.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 17.4N 44.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 18.1N 47.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.9N 51.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 19.6N 53.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 21.5N 59.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 23.5N 63.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 67.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME