Bi-Weekly Tropical Outlooks from Dr Jeff Masters - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

canarymoon · 06-30-2008, 07:43 PM

Dr Jeff Masterd publishes his two week tropical outlook on his blog at weather underground.

While we won't duplicate his entire blog here every two weeks, we will post either the summary or his main points and / or overall preictions.

canarymoon · 06-30-2008, 07:45 PM

Here's the summary paragraph of the outlook for the first half of July:

Recent history suggests a 46% chance of at least one named storm occurring in the first half of July. All of the major computer models predict the possible formation of a tropical depression in the region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles late this week or early next week. Given the high degree of model unanimity, marginally favorable sea surface temperatures, favorable wind shear, and unfavorable dust levels expected in this region, I put the chances of a tropical storm forming in the region at 30% over the next two weeks. I put the odds of a tropical storm forming elsewhere--in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or off the U.S. East Coast--at 30% as well, for a combined roughly 50% chance of a first half of July named storm.

LINK TO THE ENTIRE ARTICLE:
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

canarymoon · 06-30-2008, 07:47 PM

Also of general interest in this same article:

The first half of July is usually a quiet period in the Atlantic for tropical cyclone formation. Since 1995, six of 13 years (46%) have had a named storm form during the first half of July. The busiest first half of July occurred in 2005, when three hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season.