Thread: Invest 96E - EPAC - S of Mexico

From the EPAC Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98/99W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT OR LESS. A
1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N98W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFINITE INCREASE IN CONVECTION DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS ... ALTHOUGH THE NASCENT SYSTEM IS LOOSELY ORGANIZED AT
THE MOMENT. AN 1154 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A BROAD BUT
SLOWLY INCREASING WINDFIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ... WITH E TO
SE 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NE QUADRANT AND A S TO SW
INFLOW OF UP TO 20 KT N OF 5N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS AN AREA S OF MEXICO
FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 90W-108W. ISOLATED MODERATE ALSO EXISTS
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 102W-106W AND OVER PARTS OF S CENTRAL
MEXICO...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

Abpz20 Knhc 291732
Twoep
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Pdt Sun Jun 29 2008

For The Eastern North Pacific...east Of 140 Degrees West Longitude..

The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Tropical
Storm Boris...centered About 685 Miles Southwest Of The
Southern Tip Of Baja California...and On Tropical Storm Cristina
Centered About 1290 Miles West-southwest Of The Southern Tip Of Baja
California.

satellite Images Indicate That The Area Of Disturbed Weather
Centered About 375 Miles South-southeast Of Acapulco Mexico Is
Becoming Better Organized. This System Has The Potential To Become
A Tropical Depression During The Next Day Or Two As It Moves Toward
The West-nortwest.


Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Most Of The Global Models
Indicate That A Larger Scale Cyclonic Circulation Associated With A
Disturbance Forecast To Develop South Of Mexico Will Be The
Prevailing Flow. In Fact...the Gfs Absorbs Boris Into The New
Disturbance. . . .

By Day 3...boris Should Be A
Remnant Low Moving Slowly Westward. This Is The Scenario Provided By Most Of The Track Guidance. Although...some Global Models Are
Beginning To Forecast An Eastward Turn Assuming That Boris Will
Become Absorbed By The New Disturbance Forecast To Develop.

Boy they are busy over there!!

Yep - The Eastern Pacific is hopping!

The latest speculative forecast is that this one coule become Doug, Doug could eat Boris, and then possibly turn EAST, of all things!

Zczc Miatwoep All
Ttaa00 Knhc Ddhhmm
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Pdt Mon Jun 30 2008

For The Eastern North Pacific...east Of 140 Degrees West Longitude..

The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Tropical
Storm Boris...centered About 830 Miles Southwest Of The Southern
Tip Of Baja California...and On Tropical Storm Cristina Centered
About 1440 Miles West-southwest Of The Southern Tip Of Baja
California.

1. A Large Area Of Disturbed Weather Continues A Few Hundred Miles
South Of Acapulco Mexico. While The System Remains Broad And Not
Well-organized...environmental Conditions Appear Conducive For
Gradual Development...and A Tropical Depression Could Form During
The Next Couple Of Days As The System Moves Toward The
West-northwest.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Rhome/pasch