Thread: Tropical Depression Arthur dissapted

460
Wtnt31 Knhc 311658
Tcpat1
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Arthur Special Advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al012008
100 Pm Edt Sat May 31 2008

...tropical Storm Arthur...first Storm Of The 2008 Atlantic
Season...quickly Forms Near The Coast Of Belize...already Moving
Inland...

At 1 Pm Edt...1700 Utc...the Government Of Belize Has Issued A
Tropical Storm Warning For The Coast Of Belize....and The
Government Of Mexico Has Issued A Tropical Storm Warning From Cabo
Catoche Southward To The Border With Belize. A Tropical Storm
Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within
The Warning Area..in This Case...within The Next 6 To 12 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 100 Pm Edt...1700z...the Center Of Newly Formed Tropical Storm
Arthur Was Located Near Latitude 18.1 North...longitude 88.5 West
Or About 45 Miles... 75 Km...north-northwest Of Belize City And
About 195 Miles ...315 Km...south-southwest Of Cozumel Mexico.

Arthur Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 8 Mph...13 Km/hr. On
This Track The Center Of Circulation Will Be Moving Over Yucatan
Today And Early Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph...65 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. These Winds Are Occurring Primarily Over Water Well To The
Northeast And East Of The Center. Arthur Is Expected To Weaken
Today As It Moves Farther Inland Over Yucatan.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 260 Miles...415 Km
Mainly To The Northeast Of The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1005 Mb...29.68 Inches.

Arthur Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of 5 To 10
Inches Over Belize And Portions Of The Yucatan Peninsula With
Isolated Amounts Up To 15 Inches.

Repeating The 100 Pm Edt Position...18.1 N...88.5 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...40
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 200 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 500
Pm Edt.

$$
Forecaster Avila/rhome

697
Wtnt41 Knhc 311710
Tcdat1
Tropical Storm Arthur Special Discussion Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al012008
100 Pm Edt Sat May 31 2008

The Area Of Low Pressure Located In The Northwestern Caribbean
Became A Tropical Storm As It Was Crossing The Coast Of Belize
Early This Morning. This Is Based On Satellite Imagery...ship Data
And A Noaa Buoy 42056 Which Reported Sustained Winds Of Tropical
Storm Force. Initial Intensity Is Set At 35 Knots But Because
Arthur Is Already Inland..weakening Is Anticipated. There Is A
Possibility That Arthur Regain Tropical Storm Status If It Moves
Back Over Water In The Bay Of Campeche.

Best Estimate Of The Initial Motion Is 290/07. Arthur Is Already
South Of A Developing Ridge Over The Gulf Of Mexico...therefore A
General West-northwest To West Track Is Forecast. None Of The
Available Model Guidance Brings Arthur Northward Away From The Bay
Of Campeche.

This System Is Not Designated Tropical Storm Alma Because The
Surface Center Of Alma Dissipated Over The High Terrain Of Central
America Yesterday.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 31/1700z 18.1n 88.5w 35 Kt
12hr Vt 01/0000z 19.0n 90.0w 30 Kt...inland
24hr Vt 01/1200z 19.5n 91.0w 30 Kt...over Water
36hr Vt 02/0000z 19.5n 93.0w 30 Kt
48hr Vt 02/1200z 19.0n 94.0w 35 Kt
72hr Vt 03/1200z 19.0n 95.0w 35 Kt
96hr Vt 04/1200z 18.5n 96.5w 20 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 05/1200z...dissipated

$$
Forecaster Avila/rhome

OMG!!!

it is causing 10 foot waves out there, recon set for Sunday!

This is a big and surprising way to start the season a day early!

It apparently became a TS just before landfall then it crossed over so they upgraded it anyway, Bill Read is in charge now and they are doing it a bit differently than before, I like it, regardless of the outcome, there is better warnings this way!!

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311753
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER LAND LATER TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF ELIZE...AND
FOR MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM ONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS ASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

AT 200 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER YUCATAN TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER YUCATAN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.

ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.3 N...88.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME

Looks like it's still quite well organized...

000
Wtnt41 Knhc 311710
Tcdat1
Tropical Storm Arthur Special Discussion Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al012008
100 Pm Edt Sat May 31 2008

The Area Of Low Pressure Located In The Northwestern Caribbean
Became A Tropical Storm As It Was Crossing The Coast Of Belize
Early This Morning. This Is Based On Satellite Imagery...ship Data
And A Noaa Buoy 42056 Which Reported Sustained Winds Of Tropical
Storm Force. Initial Intensity Is Set At 35 Knots But Because
Arthur Is Already Inland..weakening Is Anticipated. There Is A
Possibility That Arthur Regain Tropical Storm Status If It Moves
Back Over Water In The Bay Of Campeche.

Best Estimate Of The Initial Motion Is 290/07. Arthur Is Already
South Of A Developing Ridge Over The Gulf Of Mexico...therefore A
General West-northwest To West Track Is Forecast. None Of The
Available Model Guidance Brings Arthur Northward Away From The Bay
Of Campeche.

This System Is Not Designated Tropical Storm Alma Because The
Surface Center Of Alma Dissipated Over The High Terrain Of Central
America Yesterday.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 31/1700z 18.1n 88.5w 35 Kt
12hr Vt 01/0000z 19.0n 90.0w 30 Kt...inland
24hr Vt 01/1200z 19.5n 91.0w 30 Kt...over Water
36hr Vt 02/0000z 19.5n 93.0w 30 Kt
48hr Vt 02/1200z 19.0n 94.0w 35 Kt
72hr Vt 03/1200z 19.0n 95.0w 35 Kt
96hr Vt 04/1200z 18.5n 96.5w 20 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 05/1200z...dissipated

$$
Forecaster Avila/rhome