Thread: Tropical depression Alma E Pacific

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2008

THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION TODAY. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTED A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND THE
00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T2.0...
SUGGESTING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER THIN...CONFINED
MOSTLY TO A FEW BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH ONE
SMALL BAND HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT... SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/3.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
AGREES ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INITIALLY...WITH A BEND TO
THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITHIN THE GYRE AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GULF RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE 12Z UKMET AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TAKING THE SYSTEM
INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE ORIENTATION OF
THE COASTLINE RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...EVEN MODEST TRACK
ERRORS COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
LANDFALL.

WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW BUT THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CORE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.
WATERS BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE WARM...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS
THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. NEITHER THE
GFDL...HWRF...OR LGEM MODELS SHOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD
REACH 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
ESPECIALLY IN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 10.2N 86.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 10.8N 86.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 12.0N 86.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 13.7N 87.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

Tropical Forecast #1

WTPZ21 KNHC 290249
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 86.5W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 86.5W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 86.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 10.8N 86.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.0N 86.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.7N 87.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

And, IF TD One-E becomes a TS, it will be named Alma.

...Depression nearing tropical storm strength...Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of El Salvador...


at 2 am PDT the government of El Salvador has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Pacific coast of El Salvador. ATropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical stormconditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected to spread across the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras during the next 24 hours.
.
At 200 am PDT the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 10.9 north...longitude 86.8 west or about 90miles south-southwest of managua Nicaragua and about 145 miles northwest of Cabo blanco Costa Rica.
The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph. A gradual turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forwardspeed is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the depression will be very close to thecoasts of Nicaragua...Honduras...and El Salvador during the next day or so.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast while thecenter of the depression remains over water...and it is expected to become a tropical storm as it approaches the coast.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.
The depression is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches over portions of Central America from Costa Ricanorthwestward through portions of Nicaragua...Honduras...El Salvador...and Guatemala. Isolated maximum storm total amounts of20 inches are possible in areas of higher terrain. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 200 am PDT position...10.9 N...86.8 W. Movement toward...north near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 500 am PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 800am PDT.
$$Forecaster Beven

The NHC is giving it a 33% chance of becoming a Tropical Storm today.

29/1145 UTC 11.3N 86.7W T2.5/2.5 01E -- East Pacific Ocean



AT 5 AM PDT...1200 UTC....THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA.

000
Wtpz31 Knhc 291131
Tcpep1
Bulletin
Tropical Depression One-e Intermediate Advisory Number 2a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep012008
500 Am Pdt Thu May 29 2008

...depression Expected To Become A Tropical Storm As It Approaches
The Coast Of Nicaragua...

At 5 Am Pdt...1200 Utc....the Government Of nicaragua Has Issued A
Tropical Storm Warning For The Pacific Coast Of Nicaragua...and The
Government Of Honduras Has Issued A Tropical Storm Warning For The
Pacific Coast Of Honduras.

tropical Storm Warnings Are Now In Effect For The Pacific Coast Of
Central America From costa Rica To El Salvador. A Tropical Storm
Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within
The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.


At 500 Am Pdt...1200z...the Center Of Tropical Depression One-e Was
Located Near Latitude 11.3 North...longitude 86.8 West Or About 75
Miles...120 Km...south-southwest Of Managua Nicaragua And About 200
Miles...350 Km...southeast Of San Salvador El Salvador.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The North Near 6 Mph...9 Km/hr. A
Gradual Turn Toward The North-northwest With An Increase In Forward
Speed Is Expected Over The Next 24 To 36 Hours. On The Forecast
Track...the Center Of The Depression Will Be Moving Very Close To
The Coasts Of Nicaragua...honduras...and El Salvador During The
Next Day Or So.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. the Depression Is Expected To Become A Tropical Storm Later
This Morning As It Approaches The Coast.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1003 Mb...29.62 Inches.

The Depression Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Amounts Of
10 To 15 Inches Over Portions Of Central America From Costa Rica
Northwestward Through Portions Of Nicaragua...honduras...el
Salvador...and Guatemala. Isolated Maximum Storm Total Amounts Of
20 Inches Are Possible In Areas Of Higher Terrain. These Rains May
Produce Life-threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides.

Repeating The 500 Am Pdt Position...11.3 N...86.8 W. Movement
Toward...north Near 6 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1003 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
800 Am Pdt.

$$
Forecaster Avila/roberts

Looking a lot better organized