I am going to start this one up cause I have been watching it for a long time!! There is a low that has been coming across the atlantic and all models but one have been tracking it for over a week and have not given up, the only question is if it goes into the eastern Pacific or the western Caribbean. Whatever it does we will watch it together to see where it goes and if it fizzils or turns into something!! It is still a ways away, This is where it is expected to be in a week, May 31st. It is the L at 1008 M's to the bottom left of Florida!!
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...HIGH AND DRY WITH NOT MUCH
TO ALTER IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAKE CONTROL OF AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK...THEN MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER A BIT. LIMITED MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE RAINFALL WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN. FOR
WEDNESDAY...GFS IS SHOWING A SUBTLE MOISTURE SURGE FROM WESTERN
GULF HEADING TOWARD INLAND AREAS...WHICH IT WAS NOT SHOWING
YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN AND
HOLD OFF AS THIS COULD BE ARTIFICIAL/MODEL GENERATED FEATURE
RATHER THAN AN ACTUAL FEATURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH BEST AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AND LIFT...TO THE NORTH. ALL WE WILL GET OUT OF THIS IS
LESS WINDS...BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND WEAK COOLING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MID LEVEL AIR COULD BRING TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF MORE
DEGREES...MORE SEASONABLE. GFS THEN TRIES TO BREAK UPPER RIDGE UP
INTO WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER REGIME OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE ECMWF BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF. STILL FEEL WESTERN PORTION OF UPPER
RIDGE...IF GFS IS RIGHT...WILL INFLUENCE SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER AND
BESIDES FORECAST MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED (PWATS GENERALLY BELOW
1.5 INCHES)...SO DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.WHAT REALLY
HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT MOST LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DECIDES TO GO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...IF THIS WAVE DEVELOPS. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
246 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GO THROUGH A SUBTLE CHANGE AS
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SE TX WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A WEAK FRONT SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND HOW FAR
SOUTHWARD THE FRONT WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH. THE THINKING HERE IS THAT THE
FRONT WILL PROBABLY GET AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AND WITH THE REMNANTS PUSHING BACK
NORTHWARD FRIDAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM THE NAM WAS DRIER THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED
POPS IN MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WENT WITH THE MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR A DRIER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND THE
FRONT DIPPING INTO THE AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DIFFERING IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE TROPICS
BY DAY SEVEN. THE GFS HAS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE PRESENT
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF COAST STATES. THE ECMWF HAD A STRONGER RIDGE
IN PLACE FROM MEXICO ALL THE WAY EAST INTO FLORIDA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH BOTH MODELS THEN GOING IN DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS WITH THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IT IS BEST TO
SAY THAT THE TROPICS BEAR WATCHING.
NWS Mobile:
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE 5-WAVE PROG SHOWS WEAK
RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN AND ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STATES
WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY...BUT
STILL SUPPORTS SMALL POPS...WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC PROMOTING A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WELL
TIMED FOR THE SEASON WHICH BEGINS JUNE 1ST. BOTH MODELS HAVE HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRING
THE SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WARRANTS CLOSE SCRUTINY PER HPC LONG RANGE DISCUSSION.
Tampa NWS:
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE GFS TAKES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEXT SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR TRACK...BUT MAINTAINS ENOUGH
RIDGING TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THE GFS
REALLY TIGHTENS UP THE GRADIENT OFFSHORE SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS A BIT UNREALISTIC.
melbourne.. nws
BOTH THE GFS AND ECM KEEP DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ON THE NRN FLANK OF A WWD MOVING CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE
(WHICH ISN`T LIKELY TO BE QUITE AS ROBUST AS THE MODELS SUGGEST) AT
BAY...LIFTING IT UP ONLY ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE PENINSULA BY
FRI/SAT. AS SUCH
miami.... nws
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND... SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER S FL IS EXPECTED AROUND A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WHICH WOULD
ALLOW DEEP MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE POPS
TO CLIMB TO AROUND CLIMO OR POSSIBLY OVER AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN.
new orleans .. nws
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC CONTINUE A PERSISTENT
TREND OF FORECASTING SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE AREA
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF DEVELOPMENT
WOULD OCCUR...OR WHERE ANY SYSTEM WOULD END UP GOING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REFER TO HPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE
DETAILS. FOR OUR WEATHER...IT LOOKS IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM TO HOT NEXT WEEKEND. 22
lake charles.... nws
.LONG TERM...LATER NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP A COLD CORE LARGE SCALE AND STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE YUCATAN. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ON THE OUTER
PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. INCLUDED MINIMAL
PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES INTO AN OUTER
CONVERGENCE BAND. THIS IS STILL VERY PRELIMINARY SINCE THE GFS
DEEPENS THE LOW TO 998HPA AT THE SURFACE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN A
WEEK DOWN THE ROAD. I`M FAVORING THE EURO WHICH HAS A MUCH WEAKER
1006HPA LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH
MODELS MORPH THE SYSTEM INTO A HYBRED WARM CORE LOW NEXT WEEKEND.
For the past 3-6 days, our most reliable global computer weather forecast models have been predicting the development of a low pressure system near or over Central America by Friday of this week. Given the persistence in the models in developing this low, we need to be alert to the possibility of a tropical depression forming in either the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific, on either side of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. . . .
. . .All five models predict that the Central American low pressure area will move northward towards the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear may fall enough to allow a tropical depression to form should the low's center emerge over water
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
8 am Discussion
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL
DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
ENHANCING THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 6N50W TO 21N57W.
LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N35W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 14N48W ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W/57W.
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