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Thread: Lows in Atlantic

  1. #1
    CLF Officer sue miller's Avatar
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    Lows in Atlantic

    I am going to start this one up cause I have been watching it for a long time!! There is a low that has been coming across the atlantic and all models but one have been tracking it for over a week and have not given up, the only question is if it goes into the eastern Pacific or the western Caribbean. Whatever it does we will watch it together to see where it goes and if it fizzils or turns into something!! It is still a ways away, This is where it is expected to be in a week, May 31st. It is the L at 1008 M's to the bottom left of Florida!!

    Last edited by sue miller; 05-25-2008 at 11:44 AM.
    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.



  2. #2
    CLF Officer sue miller's Avatar
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    This is where it is supposed to start increasing strength in the Red in the Costa Rica area, the blue is a lot of wind, nothing more

    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.



  3. #3
    Almighty Cruiser
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    I hope we don't start the "season" with a bang!

  4. #4
    CLF Officer sue miller's Avatar
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    Corpus Christi AFD:

    .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...HIGH AND DRY WITH NOT MUCH
    TO ALTER IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN
    TO TAKE CONTROL OF AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
    WEEK...THEN MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER A BIT. LIMITED MOISTURE ON
    TUESDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE RAINFALL WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN. FOR
    WEDNESDAY...GFS IS SHOWING A SUBTLE MOISTURE SURGE FROM WESTERN
    GULF HEADING TOWARD INLAND AREAS...WHICH IT WAS NOT SHOWING
    YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN AND
    HOLD OFF AS THIS COULD BE ARTIFICIAL/MODEL GENERATED FEATURE
    RATHER THAN AN ACTUAL FEATURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING
    SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH BEST AVAILABLE
    MOISTURE...AND LIFT...TO THE NORTH. ALL WE WILL GET OUT OF THIS IS
    LESS WINDS...BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND WEAK COOLING OF BOUNDARY
    LAYER AND MID LEVEL AIR COULD BRING TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF MORE
    DEGREES...MORE SEASONABLE. GFS THEN TRIES TO BREAK UPPER RIDGE UP
    INTO WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER REGIME OVER
    THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE ECMWF BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH DEEP
    EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF. STILL FEEL WESTERN PORTION OF UPPER
    RIDGE...IF GFS IS RIGHT...WILL INFLUENCE SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER AND
    BESIDES FORECAST MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED (PWATS GENERALLY BELOW
    1.5 INCHES)...SO DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.WHAT REALLY
    HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE TROPICAL
    WAVE THAT MOST LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DECIDES TO GO EARLY
    NEXT WEEK...IF THIS WAVE DEVELOPS. SOMETHING TO WATCH.



    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
    246 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

    .DISCUSSION...
    THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GO THROUGH A SUBTLE CHANGE AS
    THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY
    THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SE TX WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
    ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A WEAK FRONT SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH THE
    GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND HOW FAR
    SOUTHWARD THE FRONT WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH. THE THINKING HERE IS THAT THE
    FRONT WILL PROBABLY GET AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON
    THURSDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AND WITH THE REMNANTS PUSHING BACK
    NORTHWARD FRIDAY.

    IN THE SHORT TERM THE NAM WAS DRIER THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...MODEL
    SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED
    POPS IN MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WENT WITH THE MODEL
    GUIDANCE FOR A DRIER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY
    AND THURSDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND THE
    FRONT DIPPING INTO THE AREA.

    THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DIFFERING IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE TROPICS
    BY DAY SEVEN. THE GFS HAS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE PRESENT
    OVER THE ENTIRE GULF COAST STATES. THE ECMWF HAD A STRONGER RIDGE
    IN PLACE FROM MEXICO ALL THE WAY EAST INTO FLORIDA. THE GFS AND
    ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY THE
    UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH BOTH MODELS THEN GOING IN DIFFERENT
    DIRECTIONS WITH THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IT IS BEST TO
    SAY THAT THE TROPICS BEAR WATCHING.


    NWS Mobile:

    .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE 5-WAVE PROG SHOWS WEAK
    RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN AND ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STATES
    WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
    THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY...BUT
    STILL SUPPORTS SMALL POPS...WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
    ATLANTIC PROMOTING A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS
    AND ECMWF HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WELL
    TIMED FOR THE SEASON WHICH BEGINS JUNE 1ST. BOTH MODELS HAVE HAD
    GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRING
    THE SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THIS
    SYSTEM WARRANTS CLOSE SCRUTINY PER HPC LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
    .


    Tampa NWS:

    LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE
    EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE
    AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE GFS TAKES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
    NEXT SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR TRACK...BUT MAINTAINS ENOUGH
    RIDGING TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THE GFS
    REALLY TIGHTENS UP THE GRADIENT OFFSHORE SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
    PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS A BIT UNREALISTIC.


    melbourne.. nws

    BOTH THE GFS AND ECM KEEP DEEP LAYER
    MOISTURE ON THE NRN FLANK OF A WWD MOVING CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE
    (WHICH ISN`T LIKELY TO BE QUITE AS ROBUST AS THE MODELS SUGGEST) AT
    BAY...LIFTING IT UP ONLY ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE PENINSULA BY
    FRI/SAT. AS SUCH


    miami.... nws

    INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND... SOUTHEAST FLOW
    OVER S FL IS EXPECTED AROUND A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WHICH WOULD
    ALLOW DEEP MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE POPS
    TO CLIMB TO AROUND CLIMO OR POSSIBLY OVER AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
    STREAMS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN.


    new orleans .. nws

    THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC CONTINUE A PERSISTENT
    TREND OF FORECASTING SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE AREA
    FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA
    FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF DEVELOPMENT
    WOULD OCCUR...OR WHERE ANY SYSTEM WOULD END UP GOING EARLY NEXT
    WEEK. REFER TO HPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE
    DETAILS. FOR OUR WEATHER...IT LOOKS IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND
    SEASONABLY WARM TO HOT NEXT WEEKEND. 22


    lake charles.... nws

    .LONG TERM...LATER NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE
    TO DEVELOP A COLD CORE LARGE SCALE AND STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
    NEAR THE YUCATAN. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ON THE OUTER
    PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. INCLUDED MINIMAL
    PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES INTO AN OUTER
    CONVERGENCE BAND. THIS IS STILL VERY PRELIMINARY SINCE THE GFS
    DEEPENS THE LOW TO 998HPA AT THE SURFACE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN A
    WEEK DOWN THE ROAD. I`M FAVORING THE EURO WHICH HAS A MUCH WEAKER
    1006HPA LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH
    MODELS MORPH THE SYSTEM INTO A HYBRED WARM CORE LOW NEXT WEEKEND.

    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.



  5. #5
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    SEems like all the local weather services in the area are eyeing it...

    But that's all - just keeping an eye on it.
    So, we will, too.

  6. #6
    CLF Officer sue miller's Avatar
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    Yup just like the rest of the year, we watch to see what they do!!
    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.



  7. #7
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    Yep. We'll do our best to keep our members informed.

    Just want everyone to be aware and be safe!

  8. #8
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    NWS Melbourne made a rather lengthy mention of this in their discussion this morning.

  9. #9
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    Dr Jeff Masters Says . . .

    For the past 3-6 days, our most reliable global computer weather forecast models have been predicting the development of a low pressure system near or over Central America by Friday of this week. Given the persistence in the models in developing this low, we need to be alert to the possibility of a tropical depression forming in either the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific, on either side of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. . . .

    . . .All five models predict that the Central American low pressure area will move northward towards the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear may fall enough to allow a tropical depression to form should the low's center emerge over water

    From: BLOG (Jeff Masters)

  10. #10
    CLF Officer sue miller's Avatar
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    Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 271050
    TWDAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    805 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2008

    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
    AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
    SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
    AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
    IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
    WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

    BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
    0945 UTC.

    8 am Discussion
    ...TROPICAL WAVES...
    TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL
    DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
    THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
    ENHANCING THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
    CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 6N50W TO 21N57W.
    LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N35W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 14N48W ENHANCING
    THE ACTIVITY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W/57W.
    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.



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