Lows in Atlantic - Page 2 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

canarymoon · 05-27-2008, 09:19 AM

Tropical Weather Discussion
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1005 Utc Tue May 27 2008

Recent
And And Current Pres Analyses Reveal That This Moisture Continues
To Be Tied In To A Broad Area Of Low Pres Which Covers The Far
Ern Pacific Roughly From 04n To 15n E Of 100w To Central
America. Computer Models Suggest That This Area May Eventually
Consolidate Into A Specific Low Center Within The Next 24-48
Hours...and Likely Track To The Ne Across Central America And
Then More Nly In 3 Or 4 Days.

sue miller · 05-27-2008, 10:11 AM

Up to orange this morning, last night it was yellow!!

sue miller · 05-27-2008, 12:44 PM

18 hour outlook, Low in the far eastern Pacific, low in the western Caribbean!! Same general area!!

sue miller · 05-27-2008, 07:28 PM

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W HAS BEEN MOVING W AN AN ESTIMATED 12
KT AND THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE INTO THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 11N86W TO 06N100W
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 06N77W TO 08N84W TO
06N104W AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 09N94W TO 13N100W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW
PORTION OF THE AREA AREA. A TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR
15N130W BUT SEEMS TO BE LOSING IDENTITY AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS SW FROM A STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR
25N105W. AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH CYCLONES AT 21N77W AND 15N90W WITH THE TROUGH
CONTINUING SW TO BASE NEAR 08N92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL
PAC IS DOMINATED BY WEAK RIDGING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR
24N103W.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FROM 05N
TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 105W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE
REMAINS S OF 16N W OF 82W AS THE DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE
CARIBBEAN TROUGH SEEMS TO EVAPORATE THE MOISTURE. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD S OF THE EQ BETWEEN 70W AND 105W.
SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE NW PORTION...TO THE N
OF 27N W OF 115W AND THE IT TURNS NE AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHER
CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY AND
SUPPRESSES CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 146W.

AT THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ W
OF 117W. NORTHERLY SWELLS TO 9 FEET CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FROM
10N TO 20N W OF 130W BUT ARE SUBSIDING AND SHOULD BE LESS THAN 8
FEET ON WED. NW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA .

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND THE E PAC ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SEVERAL
CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS AREA WITH THE MOST
PRONOUNCED SWIRL NEAR 09N89W...IN THE AREA WHERE OUR MARINE
PRODUCTS HAVE SUGGESTED A SURFACE LOW WOULD DEVELOP. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND PERHAPS DRIFT
NE LATER THIS WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN DESCRIBED IN DETAIL ABOVE
IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN UP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHILE
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS WOULD
ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER GULF
OF HONDURAS. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MAY ADD THE NEEDED
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY TO GET THIS SPINNING. NOTE THAT THE GRADIENT
S OF THIS LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING A SW TO W 20 TO 25
KT WIND AND SEAS TO ABOUT 10 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST S OF THE LOW THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON

canarymoon · 05-27-2008, 08:42 PM

Keeping an Eye on the Tropics

An area of disturbed weather over the southern Caribbean will be monitored closely over the next few days as it drifts toward the northwest. There is a slight chance that the system becomes more organized, but due to the close proximity to land masses, any intensification will be very slow. Regardless, parts of central America could be dealing with some heavy rainfall late in the week.

Story by AccuWeather.com senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

canarymoon · 05-27-2008, 09:02 PM

Caribbean 8 PM Discussion by TPC:

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD MONSOON GYRE LIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC...MUCH
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH THE ITCZ
AXIS SITUATED N OF PANAMA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PANAMA
CITY...PUERTO LIMON...AND SAN ANDRES SUGGEST THAT A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRES MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10N81W BUT THE
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION IS STILL MOSTLY DISORGANIZED. AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TO BELIZE...WITH 50 KT W/SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW STREAMING ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENCE PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N INTO PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN LIFTING
N INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 75W BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM.

sue miller · 05-28-2008, 12:08 AM

Hurricane forecasters monitor possible development

Tue May 27, 2008 3:14pm BST

NEW YORK, May 27 (Reuters) - While the official start to the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season remains nearly a week away, weather forecasters are seeing signs of possible development early this week.
"AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists are monitoring conditions in the tropics that could lead to low pressure development," the forecaster said in a weather blog Tuesday.
Areas of particular interest are the western Caribbean and the region near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, according to a website posting.
AccuWeather's climatologist Rob Miller said a tropical depression or storm could form later this week. Miller explained that a weak area of low pressure in the far eastern Pacific just to the south of Guatemala was drifting east and could link up with a tropical wave over the central Caribbean.
The combination of the wave and low pressure system could form the first tropical activity of the season.
Miller said it could drift into the southern or central Gulf of Mexico by early to middle next week.
In addition, forecasters at Weather Underground said their "most reliable global computer weather forecast models" have been predicting the development of a low pressure system near or over Central America by Friday.
"Given the persistence in the models in developing this low, we need to be alert to the possibility of a tropical depression forming in either the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific, on either side of Costa Rica and Nicaragua," according to a posting.
Weather Underground added it was still uncertain which ocean basin a storm might form in and whether or not there would be a tropical wave around to help kick off development.

However, several models showed a Central American low pressure area that could move northward towards the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear that could fall enough to allow a tropical depression to form should the low's center emerge over water.
The 2008 Atlantic season is forecast to be active, with as many as nine hurricanes expected to form, according to U.S. government forecasters.
Other forecasters have called for anywhere from six to 8 hurricanes and 11 to 16 named storms. (Reporting by Eileen Moustakis and Scott DiSavino in New York; Additional reporting by Jane Sutton in Miami; Editing by John Picinich)

sue miller · 05-28-2008, 12:11 AM

We now have three lows!!

Char · 05-28-2008, 12:14 AM

And it begins.