Thread: Gray/Katzenbach 2008 Forecast

Here is are the main numbers from Drs. Gray and Ketzenbach's December, 2007 Forecast for othe 2008 Tropical Storm Season

Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurrucane Forecast for 2008

Named Storms . . . . . . . . . . 13 . . . (9.6)*
Named Storm Days . . . . . . . 60 . . . (49.1)
Hurricanes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . (5.9)
Hurricane Days . . . . . . . . . .30 . . .(24.5)
Intense Hurricanes . . . . . . . .3 . . .(2.3)
Intense Hurricane Days . . . . . 6 . . .(5.0)

*Number in parenthesis is the climatalogical average for the years 1950 - 2000

Probabilities for at least One Major Landfalling Hurricane:

1) Entire US coastline - 60% (52%)*

2) US Eqast Coast, including Peninsular Florida - 37% (31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville - 36% (30%)

4) Above major landfall risk in the Caribbean


* Average for the last century

Let's all hope those named hurricanes stay well off shore! It would be nice if they ever figured out how to "guide" the hurricanes.....but then, that might totally disrupt the earths climate flow.

Of course, this is a very preliminary forecast, which can - and probably will - change as the season approaches and then arrives.

Their updated forecasts are due to be issued on the following dates:

April 8
June 3
August 5
September 2
October 2