Thread: Sub Trop Storm OLGA

Subtropical Storm Olga has formed off the east coast of Puerto Rico, and is moving west.

...Center of Olga now just west of Puerto Rico over the Mona
Passage...
...Rainbands beginning to spread across portions of the Dominican
Republic...


a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern coast ofthe Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to bahio deManzanillo at the border with Haiti...and a tropical storm watchremains in effect for the southern coast of the Dominican Republicfrom Cabo engano to Punta Palenque southwest of Santo Domingo.
Interests in Haiti should continue to monitor the progress ofOlga...especially due to the potential for life-threatening flashfloods and mud slides.
For storm information specific to your area...including possibleinland watches and warnings...please monitor products issuedby your local weather office.
At 800 am AST...1200z...the center of subtropical storm Olga waslocated near latitude 18.4 north...longitude 67.6 west or about 45miles...75 km...east of Cabo engano in the Dominican Republic....andabout 155 miles...250 km...east of Santo Domingo in the DominicanRepublic.
Olga is moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and thisgeneral motion should continue for next day or so. On thistrack...the center of Olga should move near or over Hispaniolatoday and tonight.
Surface observations and WSR-88D radar data from San Juan PuertoRico suggest that maximum sustained winds have decreased and arenow near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Little change instrength is expected before Olga reaches the coast of the DominicanRepublic...but weakening is forecast thereafter as Olga interactswith the terrain of Hispaniola.
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km...mainly tothe northeast from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observationsis 1004 mb...29.65 inches.
Subtropical storm Olga is expected to produce rain accumulations of2 to 4 inches over Puerto Rico with isolated maximum amounts of6 inches. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible overHispaniola with possible isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods andmudslides.
Repeating the 800 am AST position...18.4 N...67.6 W. Movementtoward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at1100 am AST.
$$Forecaster Knabb/Mainelli

Originally Posted by canarymoon

What crazy models! Olga will do what Olga decides to do!

Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on December 11, 2007

...Hurricane hunter plane finds Olga a little stronger with tropical characteristics...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the northern coastof Hispaniola from Cabo engano in the Dominican Republic to Le MoleSt. Nicholas Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southeasternBahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southern coast ofthe Dominican Republic from Cabo engano to Punta Palenque.

For storm information specific to your area...including possibleinland watches and warnings...please monitor products issuedby your local weather office.

Data from a hurricane hunter plane indicate that the stronger windsare now closer to the center suggesting that Olga has transitionedto a tropical storm.

At 800 PM AST...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Olga was located inland over the Dominican Republic near latitude 18.8north...longitude 69.5 west or about 30 miles...45 km... north-northeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and just southof Bahia de samana.

Olga is moving on a general westward track near 13 mph...20km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for thenext 24 hours. The center of Olga is expected to remain over landfor much of the next 24 hours.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustainedwinds have increased to near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with highergusts. These winds are confined to an area just north of thecenter. A slow weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 240 miles...390km...mainly to the northeast and northwest of the center. Copeyinternational Airport on the north coast of the Dominican Republicjust measured wind gusts to 63 mph...102 km/hr.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Olga is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 4inches over Puerto Rico and the southeastern Bahamas...with isolatedmaximum storm total amounts of 12 inches over Puerto Rico. Rainfallamounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible over Hispaniola with possibleisolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rains are expected toproduce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in PuertoRico and Hispaniola.

Repeating the 800 PM AST position...18.8 N...69.5 W. Movementtoward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at1100 PM AST.
$$Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Olga has killed at least 8 people in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico due to heavy rains that caused floods and landslides.

From the AP:
Hardest hit was the northern Dominican province of Santiago, where heavy rains forced authorities to release water from a near-capacity dam into the already swollen Yaque River. The provincial governor said at least seven towns were completely flooded.

People complained on local radio that they were not warned of the water release from the dam, and officials acknowledged it might have caused some of the deaths.

"We have an emergency situation. It's a catastrophe," Gov. Jose Izquierdo said.

Dominican Attorney General Radhames Jimenez said at least seven people were killed and 5,000 evacuated. The storm was also blamed for one death in Puerto Rico, where a rain-triggered avalanche buried an SUV.

Families living along the banks of the swollen Yuna River near Santiago were evacuating, placing mattresses atop their heads, and climbing aboard motorcycles headed toward higher ground. Televisions and small ovens were stacked outside humble wooden homes, ready to be moved. Trucks carrying soldiers headed toward Santiago province.

As heavy rains began to overwhelm the Tavera Dam, outside Santiago, the country's second-largest city, officials gave the order to begin releasing millions of gallons per second into the river, said Ismael Matias, planning chief of the Dominican emergency operations center.

Local authorities had warned repeatedly that a release was possible during the storm and told people to evacuate areas in the path of floodwaters rising as high as 66 feet above normal, Matias said. It was unclear if the warnings were heeded or even relayed.

Perhaps some people did not believe that the water was going to come and they stayed, that's possible," Matias told The Associated Press.

Olga struck nearly two weeks after the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season. It is only the 10th named storm to develop in the month of December since record keeping began in 1851, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"It's not completely unusual to have a storm form in December," said Daniel Brown, a hurricane specialist at the center, who noted that three named storms have formed after Nov. 30 since 2003.

At 10 a.m. EST, Olga was centered about 75 miles south of Guantanamo, Cuba, and moving west at about 23 mph. It had maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph, the hurricane center said.

Forecasters predicted it would gradually weaken into a tropical depression.

The storm passed through the southwestern areas of the Dominican Republic that were hardest hit by Tropical Storm Noel six weeks ago. At least 87 deaths in the country were blamed on Noel, the deadliest storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season.

The storm passed Puerto Rico on Tuesday night, knocking out electricity to 79,000 people and water to 144,000.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected there within 24 hours.

Olga will be included in the tally for the 2007 hurricane season, bringing the number of named storms to 15, including six hurricanes. The next season begins June 1.

Santo Domingo.- The Emergency Operations Center (COE) in its latest report last night said 19 people died, 15 of them in Santiago, after the Tavera dam’s water was drained, and 35,280 people evacuated. Of that figure 3,727 were taken to government shelters, while 30,753 went to homes of relatives and friends.

There are 3 collapsed bridges, an unspecified number of highways washed out and 76 towns cut off and 6,896 houses damaged, the COE said.

In the country’s Northwest, mainly Valverde and Montecristi provinces, more than 4,000 people were evacuated.

In Santiago, the executive vice-president of the state-owned power companies (CDEEE), Radhamés Segura, said 48 percent of the region’s 542,000 customers have no electricity.

In a tour of that zone president Leonel Fernandez said he’ll receive a report on the damages in the next few hours

FROM Olga kills 19, thousands evacuated in Dominican Republic - DominicanToday.com

Dr Jeff Masters says Olga is the deatliest December TC on record.

Tropical Storm Olga is gone, destroyed by high wind shear and dry air. The storm, only the fourth December tropical storm on record to hit land, is also the deadliest December tropical cyclone on record. At least 22 people have died due to flooding in its wake. One man was killed on Puerto Rico in a mudslide, two people died on Haiti due to flash floods, and at least 19 people died in the Dominican Republic. The only other December killer storm on record was Tropical Storm Odette, a 65-mph tropical storm that killed eight people in the Dominican Republic on December 7, 2003.

Most of the deaths in the Dominican Republic occurred in its second largest city, Santiago, when water was released from the Taveras dam upstream of the city in order to keep the dam from failing. Questions are being raised about why evacuations orders given several hours before the water release were not heeded, according the local Dominican Today newspaper. The tourist areas of the Dominican Republic were largely unaffected by Olga's rains, which were concentrated in regions of the northern part of the country.

FROM: Wunder Blog : Weather Underground