Thread: INVEST 99L in SW Gulf of Mexico

From the 11:30am TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND BELIZE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING NEAR THE CENTER OF
THIS LOW. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BEFORE IT REACHES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...
HOWEVER...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
LAND. HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TOMORROW

Lot of dry air in the Gulf could slow this down!!

000
Abnt20 Knhc 150904
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Is Located Over The Yucatan Peninsula.
The Low Is Moving West-northwestward At 10 To 15 Mph...and Some
Development Of This System Is Possible When It Moves Over The
Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico Within The Next Day Or So.

Forecaster Pasch

000
Abnt20 Knhc 151527
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1130 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

1. A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Has Emerged From The Yucatan Peninsula Over The Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico And Is Producing Some Thunderstorm Activity That Extends Northward Into The Central Gulf. Slow Development Of This System Is Possible During The Next Day Or Two As It Moves Generally Northwestward.

000
Abnt20 Knhc 160901
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Am Edt Tue Oct 16 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Weak Area Of Low Pressure Over The Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico Is
Accompanied By Some Disorganized Showers And Thunderstorms.
Upper-level Winds Are Expected To Become Increasingly Unfavorable
For Development Of This System Over The Next Couple Of Days As It
Moves Northwestward To Northward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The Next 48 Hours.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

So, according to the latest TWO, no real development is expected, and that's just fine.

BUT, there's GOOD news... Just LOOK at this morning's model runs!!!

If they pan out, any way you slice it, some of our drought-stricken states may have a chance for some moisture coming up! Wouldn't that be wonderful?

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...


Shower activity remains limited and disorganized with the broad areaof low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level windsare expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cycloneformation...and the low is expected to move generally northwardover the next day or so without significant development.
A small area of low pressure near the Southeast Florida coast isproducing showers and a few thunderstorms. Upper-level winds areforecast to be unfavorable for development as this system movesnorthward to north-northeastward over the next day or two.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Let's hope we don't have favorable conditions for any more tropical storms this year. We were lucky here in Florida

Dr Jeff Masters is still calling for one more hurricane for this season... it's getting late, but could happen.

Probably not out of 99L, though