Thread: Disturbed Weather in W Caribbean

From Dr Jeff Masters:

The "sleeping giant" Yucatan low
A large low pressure system that moved inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Monday continues to bring heavy rain to Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. Satellite estimates of rainfall show that 1-2 inches of rain has fallen over the Yucatan, with isolated amounts up to five inches. The low crossed the Yucatan Wednesday and reached the edge of the Gulf of Mexico, where it began pulling in Gulf moisture and firing up some heavy thunderstorms. However, the low looped counter-clockwise back towards Belize before it could fully emerge into the Gulf. The low is now over northern Guatemala, and is still quite deep. Surface pressures at the center are about 1002 mb, the same level as a week ago. Satellite imagery shows a vigorous surface circulation around the low, which is kicking up impressive thunderstorms over Belize and the waters just offshore over the Western Caribbean. The low is drifting slowly eastwards towards the Western Caribbean, and could pop out over water on Saturday or Sunday. If this occurs, I believe the low will have enough spin to develop into a tropical depression. Steering currents are weak enough that the storm could stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many many days, or it could loop northwestward back over the Yucatan Peninsula, arriving in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. At that time, a trough of low pressure capable of turning the storm northwards towards Texas may arrive. This is the solution offered by the UKMET model. However, most of the computer models forecast that the low will never emerge into the Caribbean.



SOURCE: Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

8:05 Am Twd:

caribbean Sea...
A Persistent 1005 Mb Low In The Nw Caribbean Along The Coast Of
The Yucatan Just N Of Belize Near 19n87w With A Surface Trough
Extending Ne Across Central Cuba Into The W Atlc. Scattered
Showers/thunderstorms Are Nw Of A Line From Honduras Near 16n85w
Across Cuba Near 20n77w But Does Not Include The Yucatan
Channel. An Upper High Is Situated Between E Cuba And Jamaica
Near 19n78w Extending A Ridge Axis Ne Into The W Atlc And Sw To
The Coast Of Honduras Enhancing The Activity Above. Low Level
And Upper Level Convergence Is Generating Some Scattered Showers
And Possible Isolated Thunderstorms Across The Sw Caribbean S Of
12n.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131500
TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL CUBA...AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF BELIZE. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS NOW OVERWATER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RISING AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE BACK OVER LAND ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$
$FORECASTER BLAKE

2:05 Pm Twd:

caribbean Sea...
A Broad Area Of Low Pres Has Drifted To The E Slightly Centered
Off The Coast Of Belize Near 18n86w...analyzed 1007 Mb At 15z.
This Low Extends An Elongated Trough Neward Across Wrn Cuba And
Swd Into Honduras And Guatemala. Disorganized Scattered Showers
And Tstms Are Within 120 Nm W Of The Trough Axis S Of 20n.
Similar Activity Is Located Further To The Ne Over Central Cuba
And The Bahamas N Of 20n Between 77w-79w...likely Enhanced By
The Upper Jet Mentioned In The Gulf Section. Any Further
Development Of This System Is Expected To Be Slow To Occur
Before It Drifts Back Wwd Over Land On Sunday. Heavy Rains Are
Possible Over Central America For The Next Few Days...especially
Over Portions Of The Pacific Coast.

000
Abnt20 Knhc 132127
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Pm Edt Sat Oct 13 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

Satellite Images And Surface Observations Show A Broad Area Of Low
Pressure In The Gulf Of Honduras Just North Of The Island Of Roatan. This Low Is Accompanied By A Large But Disorganized Area Of Cloudiness And Thunderstorms Covering Portions Of The Northwestern Caribbean Sea. Although Numerical Guidance Does Not Show Tropical Cyclone Formation In This Area...environmental Conditions Appear To Be Favorable For Some Slow Development Before The System Moves Over Yucatan In A Day Or So. Heavy Rains Are Expected To Continue Over Central America For The Next Few Days...especially Over Portions Of The Pacific Coast.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$

Forecaster Avila