Thread: Tropical Depression 15 - East of Bermuda

000
wtnt35 Knhc 112034
tcpat5bulletin
tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 1
nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
Al152007500 Pm Edt Thu Oct 11 2007

...tropical Depression Forms In The Central North Atlantic...

at 500 Pm Edt The Center Of Tropical Depression Fifteen Was Located Near Latitude 30.1 North...longitude 50.5 West Or About 860 Miles East Of Bermuda.

the Depression Is Moving Toward The East-northeast Near 15 Mph. An Eastward Motion At A Slower Forward Speed Is Expected over The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph With Higher Gusts. Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24 hours.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1011 Mb.

Repeating The 500 Pm Edt Position...30.1 N...50.5 W. Movementtoward...east-northeast Near 15 Mph.

Maximum Sustained Winds...35 mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1011 Mb. the Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At1100 Pm Edt.

$$
forecaster Franklin

Really, WOW!!

Yeah - big surprise!

Remenants of Karen????

Darned if I know... Wasn't expecting this at all!
I guess we have something to research.

For the moment there is NO threat to land, and the cold front we are getting would stop anything close to Florida, but this is WAY out there and going north/northeast!!

Wtnt45 Knhc 120831
Tcdat5
Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al152007
500 Am Edt Fri Oct 12 2007

Satellite Imagery This Morning Indicates That Tropical Depression
Fifteen Has Changed Little In Organization...with The Center A
Little Less Involved With The Convection Than 6 Hr Ago. Satellite
Intensity Estimates Are 30 Kt From Tafb And 25 Kt From Sab...so The
Initial Intensity Remains 30 Kt. The Cirrus Outflow Is Fair To The
East And Almost Non-existent Elsewhere.

The Initial Motion Is A Somewhat Uncertain 090/3. The Depression Is
Embedded In The Low/mid-level Subtropical Ridge...a Condition That
Is Forecast To Cause 24 Hr Or So Of Slow Motion. After That...a
Low/mid-level Trough Or Frontal System Approaching From The West
Will Weaken The Ridge And Steer The Cyclone...or Its Remains...
Northward Or North-northeastward. The New Forecast Track Is Again
Shifted To The West Of The Previous Track Based On The Initial
Position And Motion...and It Lies Near The Right Edge Of The
Guidance Envelops

The Depression Is Currently Under The Axis Of An Upper-level
Trough...which Has Reduced The Vertical Wind Shear For The Moment.
However...all Dynamical Guidance Forecasts The Cyclone To Be
Blasted By 40-50 Kt Of Upper-level Northerly Flow Within 12-24 Hr.
This Should Cause The Depression To Weaken To A Remnant Low In
24-36 Hr...and This Could Occur Earlier. Some Of The Dynamical
Models Forecast A Remnant Circulation To Survive 48 Hr...so The
Official Forecast Continues To Indicate A Remnant Low To That Time.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 12/0900z 30.0n 49.4w 30 Kt
12hr Vt 12/1800z 30.1n 49.1w 30 Kt
24hr Vt 13/0600z 30.4n 48.9w 25 Kt
36hr Vt 13/1800z 30.9n 48.9w 25 Kt...remnant Low
48hr Vt 14/0600z 32.3n 48.6w 25 Kt...remnant Low
72hr Vt 15/0600z...dissipated

$$
Forecaster Beven

...Depression moving slowly eastward...expected to weaken...


at 500 am AST the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 30.0 north...longitude 49.4 west or about925 miles east of Bermuda.

The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph. A drift toward the northeast is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The depression is expected to encounter unfavorableupper-level winds later today...and weakening is expected during the next 24 hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb.

Repeating the 500 am AST position...30.0 N...49.4 W. Movement toward...east near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 am AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven