Thread: 94L Western Caribbean

From the 5:30am TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

FORECASTER BLAKE

8:05 Am Twd:

the Caribbean Sea...
The Main Area Of Focus Continues To Be The Broad Low Pres Trough
Observed Across The Wrn Half Of The Carib Sea. Yesterday And
Earlier This Morning...including On The 06z Analysis...we Have
Been Tracking A Broad Area Of Low Pres In The Nw Carib. Based On
The Latest Satellite Imagery And Sfc Data There Appears To Be
Two Lows Embedded In The Trough. As Of 09z...the Nrn Low Is
Analyzed About 75 Nm Se Of Cozumel Mexico Near 20n86w. The Srn
Low Is Located About 150 Nm Ne Of Ern Honduras Near
17n82w...both Of These Are Estimated To Be 1004 Mb. Synoptic Sfc
Pressures Are Running 2-4 Mb Lower Across This General Vicinity
Compared To This Time Yesterday. The Low Of Interest This
Morning Is The Srn One As Convection Has Formed And Expanded
Since Coming Out Of The Goes-e Sat Eclipse A Few Hours Ago.
Currently...scattered Moderate Is Within 150 Nm S Semicircle.
This Area Is Being Monitored As Environmental Conditions Appear
To Support Further Development.

$$
Cangialosi

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The models don't know quite what to do with it yet.

Recon for today

A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01LLA INVEST
C. 07/1430Z
D. 17.0N 85.0W
E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

First t-numbers

07/1145 UTC 17.1N 82.3W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

It has a floater

holy cow.
t numbers 1.0 and recon already and it just became an invest!

Guess Humberto spoke loud and clear

NHC really interested in this one

That is one of the areas where development tends to happen this time of year . .. and it's looking pretty healthy already.