Thread: Invest 90L

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL QUITE STRONG OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST WITH WINDS DEFINITELY HIGHER IN GUSTS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS IN ACTIVITY. A WEAK CLOUD SWIRL (WEAK
LOW) HAS BEEN FOLLOWED ALL DAY AND IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF
ANDROS ISLAND. GFS40 HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT WITH MOVING IT TO THE
UPPER KEYS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN
STAYING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BECOME STACKED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW WILL START DEEPENING
AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST."



MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
343 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2007

GMZ031-032-052-053-072-073-012045-
/O.CON.KKEY.MA.W.0243.000000T0000Z-071001T2045Z/
343 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2007

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
WATERS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60
NM
WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE
OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY FL OUT 20 NM
GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM
FLORIDA BAY

AT 331 PM EDT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...AFFECTING MUCH OF FLORIDA BAY...THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS...AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF
SUGARLOAF KEY AND BIG PINE KEY.

MARINERS IN THIS AREA CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS AND
BAY WATERS. BOATERS SHOULD AVOID THESE WATERS UNTIL THE HIGH WINDS
SUBSIDE.

LAT...LON 2438 8113 2467 8125 2501 8168 2513 8138
2514 8108 2520 8087 2519 8071 2527 8059
2527 8044 2521 8036 2535 8026 2515 7997
2476 7965 2459 7957
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 076DEG 62KT 4732 4831

$$

LEE

Squalls from this coming through our area have been picking up over the better part of today.

Heavy thunderstorms are firing up over South Florida and the nearby waters, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system interacting with an old front . . .. Most of the computer models forecast that wind shear will fall, and a tropical or subtropical depression will form by Wednesday near the Florida Keys, eastern Gulf of Mexico, or western Cuba.. .
There is a strong upper-level low pressure system just southwest of Florida . . is expected to move southwestward. This is a situation very similar to the one that spawned Subtropical Depression Ten in September . . . This time, the GFS model is supporting formation of a subtropical depression to the northeast of the upper low. This situation would potentially allow a faster conversion of the subtropical storm to a tropical storm. The UKMET and Canadian model predict that a fully tropical storm will form, instead. I think a subtropical storm is more likely.

Any storm that forms is forecast to move west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico . . . An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. However, intensification will be slowed by the presence of all the dry air dragged into the Gulf of Mexico by the upper low, and by the transition of the storm from subtropical to tropical. The models project a landfall in Texas or Louisiana on Friday or Saturday.

FROM Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

abnt20 Knhc 012108
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Pm Edt Mon Oct 1 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

An Upper-level Low Over The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico And A Weak
Surface Low Over The Northwestern Bahamas Are Producing Squally
Weather Over Portions Of Central And South Florida...the
Bahamas...and The Adjacent Waters Of The Western Atlantic And
Southeastern Gulf. Some Slow Development...perhaps Of A
Subtropical Nature...is Possible During The Next Couple Of Days As
This System Moves Generally Westward At 10 To 15 Mph.

Disorganized Cloudiness And A Few Thunderstorms...the Remnants Of
Karen...extend From The Northern Leeward Islands Northeastward For
Several Hundred Miles. Development Of This System During The Next
Couple Of Days Is Not Expected Due To Strong Upper-level Winds.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$

Forecaster Knabb

Invest 90L may have already claimed a victim.

A 19 year old tourist, who went swimming at Daytona Beach has disappeared. A search is beilng conducted by both air and sea at this time.

8:05 AM TWD:

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N70W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
NEAR 29N83W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR 24N85W JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN
PUSHED INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE 24N85W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...IN THE BAHAMAS...AND EVEN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF 28N. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CELLS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W...
AND FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT EAST OF 90W AND SEAS FROM
6 TO 10 FT. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N75W
TO 27N80W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N80W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO CUBA JUST WEST OF 80W
AND TO THE HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS NEAR 86W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE 1006 MB LOW CENTER MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AFTER 48 HOURS.

This thing is really drenching the Port Canaveral area
.Squally squally squally here again today..

Same goes for Miami, and the Keys, and the Bahamas, and everything in between.


Not a good day to be druising the Bahamas...