Thread: Tropical Storm Melissa, formally TD 14

000
WTNT34 KNHC 290841
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
500 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2007

...THIRTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.4 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL TAKE THE DEPRESSION
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.1 N...27.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

The GOOD news is that weather forecasters are saying that Melissa is not projeted to be a threat to land!

918
Wtnt44 Knhc 291437
Tcdat4
Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 5
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al142007
1100 Am Edt Sat Sep 29 2007

Shear Continues To Be A Problem For Storms In The Deep Tropics. The
Center Of Melissa Has Also Become Detached From The Convection Due
To Westerly Shear. However...this Shear Pattern Is Common At The
End Of September Near The Cape Verde Islands. The Cloud Pattern
Still Supports Tropical Storm Status Given The Large And Well-
Defined Circulation And The Tight Surface Center. Shear Is Forecast
To Remain Marginal For The Next Day Or So...and Melissa Could Keep
Its Storm Status. Thereafter...both Shear And A Cool Ocean Will
Likely Take A Toll On Melissa. The Cyclone Is Expected To Be A
Remnant Low By The End Of The Forecast Period If Not Earlier.

Melissa Is Moving Toward The Northwest At 7 Knots Around The
Periphery Of A Modest Subtropical Ridge. This Ridge Is Forecast To
Expand A Little And This Pattern Will Keep The Cyclone On This
General Track. Most Of The Global Models Do Not Even Know Melissa
Is There...and If They Know...they Dissipate The Cyclone In A Day
Or Two. That Seems Like A Reasonable Model Solution.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 29/1500z 15.2n 28.4w 35 Kt
12hr Vt 30/0000z 15.6n 29.4w 35 Kt
24hr Vt 30/1200z 16.5n 31.0w 35 Kt
36hr Vt 01/0000z 17.6n 33.4w 35 Kt
48hr Vt 01/1200z 18.5n 35.5w 30 Kt
72hr Vt 02/1200z 20.0n 39.1w 25 Kt...dissipating
96hr Vt 03/1200z 21.5n 42.0w 20 Kt...remnant Low
120hr Vt 04/1200z 23.5n 45.0w 20 Kt...remnant Low

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT34 KNHC 291437
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2007

...MELISSA IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER...

AT 1100 AM AST THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.4 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.2 N...28.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

We got a double shot of good news with the 11am advisories - Karen was downgraded to a TD, and Meliss is "... not expected to strengthen further."

Yup it is great news that the shear out there is so strong nothing can really develop We still have to worry about home grown tho, but that is our only threat till the atlantic shear stops!!

Originally Posted by sue miller

Yup it is great news that the shear out there is so strong nothing can really develop We still have to worry about home grown tho, but that is our only threat till the atlantic shear stops!!

And, with any luck, the Cape Verde train will have stopped by then, too!

221
Wtnt44 Knhc 292031
Tcdat4
Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 6
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al142007
500 Pm Edt Sat Sep 29 2007

After Being Exposed For A Few Hours...new Deep Convection Has
Regenerated Near The Center. Satellite Intensity Estimates...
Primarily Objective T-numbers From Sab As Well As Those
Provided By Uw-cimss Indicate That Melissa Is Still A 35-knot
Tropical Storm. Since The Shear Is Forecast To Be About 15 To 20
Knots Over Melissa During The Next Day Or So...the Cyclone Could
Keep Its Storm Status For That Period. Thereafter...both Shear And
A Cool Ocean Will Likely Take A Toll On Melissa. The Cyclone Is
Expected To Be A Remnant Low By The End Of The Forecast Period If
Not Earlier.

Melissa Appears To Be Moving Toward The West-northwest Or 300
Degrees At 11 Knots Around The Periphery Of A Modest Subtropical
Ridge. The Ridge Is Forecast To Expand A Little And This Pattern
Will Keep The Cyclone On This General Track. In The Last
Run...models Keep Melissa A Little Longer...and Are In Good
Agreement Moving The Cyclone West-northwestward Around The
Periphery Of The Ridge. The Official Forecast Is In The Middle
Ot The Guidance Envelope.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 29/2100z 15.6n 29.5w 35 Kt
12hr Vt 30/0600z 16.3n 30.9w 35 Kt
24hr Vt 30/1800z 17.0n 33.0w 35 Kt
36hr Vt 01/0600z 18.0n 35.0w 35 Kt
48hr Vt 01/1800z 19.0n 37.0w 30 Kt
72hr Vt 02/1800z 21.5n 41.0w 25 Kt...dissipating
96hr Vt 03/1800z 24.0n 44.0w 20 Kt...remnant Low
120hr Vt 04/1800z 26.0n 45.0w 20 Kt...remnant Low

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
Wtnt34 Knhc 300230
Tcpat4
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 7
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al142007
1100 Pm Ast Sat Sep 29 2007

...melissa Intensifies A Little But Is No Threat To Land...

At 1100 Pm Ast The Center Of Tropical Storm Melissa Was Located Near Latitude 15.8 North...longitude 30.2 West Or About 410 Miles West Of The Cape Verde Islands.

Melissa Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 9 Mph And This Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours With Some Increase In Forward Speed.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph With Higher Gusts. Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1003 Mb.

Repeating The 1100 Pm Ast Position...15.8 N...30.2 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 9 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...45
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1003 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
500 Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Blake