Thread: Sub-Tropical Storm Jerry formally Invest 95L Northwest Atlantic

5:30pm TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

Twd 805:

...special Feature...
A 1008 Mb Low Located 825 Miles West-southwest Of The Azores
Near 36n44w Is Increasing Its Convection Near The Center And
Thus Looking More Tropical. The Low Is Presently Drifting Ne.
This Low Has The Potential To Become A Tropical Or Subtropical
System Within The Next 48 Hours. Scattered Moderate Convection
Is Mostly W And N Of The Center From 35n-38n Between
46w-49w...and From 37n-39n Between 44w-46w.

Tcpat1
Bulletin
Subtropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112007
500 Am Ast Sun Sep 23 2007

...subtropical Depression Forms Far From Land In The North Central
Atlantic...

At 500 Am Ast...0900z...the Center Of Subtropical Depression Eleven
Was Located Near Latitude 36.2 North...longitude 46.1 West Or About
1060 Miles...1705 Km...west Of The Azores.

The Depression Is Currently Stationary...but Is Expected To Begin A
Slow Motion Toward The North Later Today...with An Increase In
Forward Speed Tonight. On This Track The Depression Will Be Moving
Over The Open Waters Of The North Central Atlantic...well To The
West Of The Azores.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours As
The Depression Gains More Tropical Characteristics...and It Could
Become A Tropical Storm Later Today Or Tonight.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1007 Mb...29.74 Inches.

Repeating The 500 Am Ast Position...36.2 N...46.1 W. Movement...
Stationary. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph. Minimum Central
Pressure...1007 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Knabb
Advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112007
500 Am Ast Sun Sep 23 2007

...subtropical Depression Forms Far From Land In The North Central
Atlantic...

At 500 Am Ast...0900z...the Center Of Subtropical Depression Eleven
Was Located Near Latitude 36.2 North...longitude 46.1 West Or About
1060 Miles...1705 Km...west Of The Azores.

The Depression Is Currently Stationary...but Is Expected To Begin A
Slow Motion Toward The North Later Today...with An Increase In
Forward Speed Tonight. On This Track The Depression Will Be Moving
Over The Open Waters Of The North Central Atlantic...well To The
West Of The Azores.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours As
The Depression Gains More Tropical Characteristics...and It Could
Become A Tropical Storm Later Today Or Tonight.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1007 Mb...29.74 Inches.

Repeating The 500 Am Ast Position...36.2 N...46.1 W. Movement...
Stationary. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph. Minimum Central
Pressure...1007 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Knabb

Loo9ks like they are forecasting a pretty decent chance of this becoming a Tropical Storm, but little, if any chance for it to strengthen beyond that. It's just too far north . . .

047
Wtnt41 Knhc 231428
Tcdat1
Subtropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 2
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112007
1100 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2007

An 0807 Utc Quikscat Pass Indicated That The Maximum Winds In The
Circulation Are At Least 35 Kt And Satellite Classifications Give A
Subtropical T-number Of 2.5 Using The Hebert-poteat Method. The
System Is Therefore Upgraded To Subtropical Storm Jerry. The
Cyclone Lacks A Well-defined Inner Core With Multiple Low-cloud
Swirls Near The Estimated Center. There Is A Narrow Window Of
Opportunity For The System To Acquire Tropical Characteristics And
To Strengthen Further. However...cooling Sea Surface Temperatures
And Increasing Shear Will Probably Limit The Intensification
Process. Global Models Show A Large And Vigorous Extratropical
Cyclone Overtaking Jerry Within 48 Hours...so The System Is Likely
To Become Absorbed By This Larger System In A Couple Of Days.

There Has Been Little Net Motion Over The Past Several Hours As
Jerry Is Still Embedded Within A Broader Cyclonic Circulation.
However...as A Strong 500 Mb Trough Moves Off The Canadian
Maritimes Tonight And Early Monday...the South-southwesterly
Steering Current Will Gradually Increase. This Should Pull Jerry
Toward Higher Latitudes Before It Becomes Absorbed. This Is
Similar To The Previous Nhc Forecast...and About In The Middle Of
The Track Guidance Suite.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 23/1500z 36.0n 46.3w 35 Kt
12hr Vt 24/0000z 37.3n 45.8w 40 Kt...tropical
24hr Vt 24/1200z 39.7n 44.0w 45 Kt...tropical
36hr Vt 25/0000z 44.0n 40.5w 45 Kt...becoming Extratropical
48hr Vt 25/1200z...absorbed By Larger Extratropical Cyclone

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Subtropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112007
500 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2007

Jerry Is Beginning To Take On A More Tropical Appearance On Visible
Satellite Images. Low Cloud Lines Are Wrapping More Tightly Around
The Center And There Is Some Deep Convection Not Too Far To The
Northeast Of The Center. Amsu Data Suggest That The Cyclone Has
Already Acquired A Shallow To Moderate Depth Warm Core. Satellite
Classifications Remain Subtropical T2.5 And The Overall Amount Of
Deep Convection Is Limited...so The Cyclone Will Still Be
Designated As A 35-kt Subtropical Storm For This Advisory. Jerry
Will Probably Make The Transition To A Tropical Cyclone Within The
Next 12 Hours. Some Strengthening Is Expected...however The
Intensification Process Will Soon Be Curtailed By Cooling Ssts
And Increasing Southwesterly Shear. A Large And Powerful
Extratropical Cyclone Moving Off Of The Canadian Maritimes Is
Forecast To Absorb Jerry In 36-48 Hours...if Not Sooner.

Jerry Has Begun To Move Slowly Northward...360/5. As The Steering
Flow Increases In Association With The Mid-tropospheric Trough
Digging Off Of Southeastern Canada...jerry Should Accelerate North-
Northeastward Before The Larger Extratropical System Catches Up To
The Tropical Cyclone...and Absorbs It. The Official Track Forecast
Is Similar To The Previous One And Is In Good Agreement With The
Consensus Of The Dynamical Models.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 23/2100z 36.8n 46.3w 35 Kt
12hr Vt 24/0600z 38.5n 45.1w 40 Kt...tropical
24hr Vt 24/1800z 41.7n 42.3w 45 Kt...tropical
36hr Vt 25/0600z 47.0n 38.5w 45 Kt...becoming Extratropical
48hr Vt 25/1800z...absorbed By Larger Extratropical Cyclone

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
Wtnt31 Knhc 241459
Tcpat1
Bulletin
Tropical Depression Jerry Advisory Number 6
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112007
1100 Am Ast Mon Sep 24 2007

...jerry Weakens To A Depression As It Heads For Cooler Waters...

At 1100 Am Ast the Center Of Tropical Depression Jerry Was Located Near Latitude 39.5 North...longitude 44.5 West Or About 945 Miles west-northwest Of The Azores.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 13 Mph and An Increase In Forward Speed Is Expected Today And Tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph with Higher Gusts. Little Change In Strength Is Anticipated Today And Tonight...and Jerry Is Forecast To Be Absorbed By A Larger Non-tropical Low Pressure System By Tuesday Morning.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1004 Mb.

Repeating The 1100 Am Ast Position...39.5 N...44.5 W. Movement Toward...northeast Near 13 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1004 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 500 Pm Ast.

$$
Forecaster Pasch