TD 10 former invest 93L - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 09-21-2007, 11:31 AM

640
Whxx01 Kwbc 211414
Chghur
Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1414 Utc Fri Sep 21 2007

Disclaimer...numerical Models Are Subject To Large Errors.
Please Refer To Nhc Official Forecasts For Tropical Cyclone
And Subtropical Cyclone Information.

Atlantic Objective Aids For

disturbance Ten (al102007) 20070921 1200 Utc

...00 Hrs... ...12 Hrs... ...24 Hrs. .. ...36 Hrs...
070921 1200 070922 0000 070922 1200 070923 0000

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 28.7n 85.3w 30.1n 86.4w 31.2n 87.9w 32.1n 89.8w
Bamd 28.7n 85.3w 29.9n 86.4w 30.8n 87.6w 31.6n 89.4w
Bamm 28.7n 85.3w 29.9n 86.4w 30.9n 87.7w 31.8n 89.5w
Lbar 28.7n 85.3w 29.9n 86.2w 31.2n 87.0w 32.3n 87.5w
Ship 30kts 37kts 42kts 48kts
Dshp 30kts 37kts 42kts 40kts

...48 Hrs... ...72 Hrs... ...96 Hrs. .. ..120 Hrs...
070923 1200 070924 1200 070925 1200 070926 1200

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bams 33.5n 92.0w 38.7n 94.5w 42.7n 89.3w 43.7n 80.5w
Bamd 33.0n 91.7w 38.9n 95.0w 47.5n 86.7w 51.7n 59.4w
Bamm 33.2n 91.8w 38.6n 94.8w 45.1n 87.4w 47.9n 70.8w
Lbar 33.5n 87.7w 36.2n 88.1w 39.5n 85.1w 43.6n 73.5w
Ship 51kts 53kts 46kts 33kts
Dshp 31kts 27kts 28kts 30kts

...initial Conditions...
Latcur = 28.7n Loncur = 85.3w Dircur = 330deg Spdcur = 7kt
Latm12 = 27.4n Lonm12 = 84.3w Dirm12 = 330deg Spdm12 = 7kt
Latm24 = 27.4n Lonm24 = 83.8w
Wndcur = 30kt Rmaxwd = 60nm Wndm12 = 25kt
Cenprs = 1005mb Outprs = 1012mb Outrad = 180nm Sdepth = M
Rd34ne = 0nm Rd34se = 0nm Rd34sw = 0nm Rd34nw = 0nm

$$
Nnnn

sue miller · 09-21-2007, 12:05 PM

000
Wtnt35 Knhc 211454
Tcpat5
Bulletin
Subtropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al102007
1000 Am Cdt Fri Sep 21 2007

...subtropical Depression Forms In The Northeastern Gulf Of
Mexico...

At 10 Am Cdt...1500 Utc...a Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect From
Apalachicola Florida Westward To The Mouth Of The Mississippi
River...including New Orleans And Lake Pontchartrain. A Tropical
Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 1000 Am Cdt...1500z...the Poorly-defined Center Of Subtropical
Depression Ten Was Located Near Latitude 29.2 North...longitude
85.5 West Or About 45 Miles... 75 Km...southwest Of Apalachicola
Florida And About 185 Miles...300 Km...east-southeast Of Mobile
Alabama.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 8 Mph. A Turn To
The West-northwest Is Expected During The Next 24 Hours. On The
Forecast Track...the Center Of The Depression Will Be Moving Nearly
Parallel To The Coastline Within The Warning Area Today And
Tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24
Hours...and The Depression Could Become A Subtropical Or Tropical
Storm Later Today.

The Minimum Central Pressure Reported By A Reconnaissance Aircraft
Was 1004 Mb...29.65 Inches.

Rainfall Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches...with Isolated Maximum
Amounts Of 6 Inches...can Be Expected In Association With The
Depression.

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Over Southwestern Georgia...the
Florida Panhandle...and Southeastern Alabama Through Tonight.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 1 To 2 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels
Can Be Expected In Areas Of Onshore Flow.

Repeating The 1000 Am Cdt Position...29.2 N...85.5 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1004 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 100 Pm Cdt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 400
Pm Cdt.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

sue miller · 09-21-2007, 02:49 PM

Bulletin
Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 1a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al102007
100 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 21 2007

...depression Becomes Tropical...

Satellite Imagery Indicates That The Subtropical Depression Has
Acquired Enough Tropical Characteristics To Be Considered A
Tropical Depression.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From Apalachicola Florida
Westward To The Mouth Of The Mississippi River...including New
Orleans And Lake Pontchartrain. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That
Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area
Within The Next 24 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 100 Pm Cdt...1800z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Ten Was
Located Near Latitude 29.7 North...longitude 85.9 West Or About 50
Miles... 85 Km...southwest Of Apalachicola Florida And About 155
Miles...250 Km...east-southeast Of Mobile Alabama.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 11 Mph. A Turn To
The West-northwest Is Expected During The Next 24 Hours. On The
Forecast Track...the Center Of The Depression Will Be Moving Nearly
Parallel To The Coastline Within The Warning Area Today And
Tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. The Depression Is Expected To Become A Tropical Storm Later
Today Or Tomorrow.

The Minimum Central Pressure Reported By A Reconnaissance Aircraft
Was 1006 Mb...29.71 Inches.

Rainfall Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches...with Isolated Maximum
Amounts Of 6 Inches...can Be Expected In Association With The
Depression.

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Over Southwestern Georgia...the
Florida Panhandle...and Southeastern Alabama Through Tonight.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 1 To 2 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels
Can Be Expected In Areas Of Onshore Flow.

Repeating The 100 Pm Cdt Position...29.7 N...85.9 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 11 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 400 Pm Cdt.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

MD11F · 09-22-2007, 12:42 AM

000
Wtnt35 Knhc 220219
Tcpat5
Bulletin
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al102007
1000 Pm CDT Fri Sep 21 2007

....Short-Lived Depression Weakens As It Moves Inland...

At 1000 Pm Cdt...0300z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Ten Was
Located Inland Near Latitude 30.6 North...longitude 87.1 West Or
About 10 Miles... 15 Km...northeast Of Pensacola Florida And About
10 Miles ... 15 Km...northeast Of Pensacola Florida.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 9 Mph...15 Km/hr.
A Gradual Turn To The West Is Expected On Saturday. On This Track
The Depression Will Continue To Move Over Land.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 30 Mph...45
Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. The Depression Is Expected To Become A
Remnant Low On Saturday.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1005 Mb...29.68 Inches.

Rainfall Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches...with Isolated Maximum
Amounts Of 6 Inches...can Be Expected In Association With The
Depression.

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Over Southwestern Georgia...the
Florida Panhandle...and Southern Alabama Through Saturday Morning.

Repeating The 1000 Pm Cdt Position...30.6 N...87.1 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 9 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...30 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.

This Is The Last Public Advisory Issued By The National Hurricane
Center On This System. Future Information On This System Can Be
Found In Public Advisories Issued By The Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center...under Awips Header Tcpat5 And Wmo Header Wtnt35
Kwnh...beginning At 400 Am Cdt.

$$

Forecaster Avila