T.S. Ivo Off Mexico - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

canarymoon · 09-19-2007, 06:56 AM

000
Wtpz22 Knhc 190833
Tcmep2
Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast/advisory Number 4
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep122007
0900 Utc Wed Sep 19 2007

Tropical Storm Center Located Near 14.7n 110.0w At 19/0900z
Position Accurate Within 30 Nm

Present Movement Toward The West-northwest Or 295 Degrees At 9 Kt

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 997 Mb
Max Sustained Winds 50 Kt With Gusts To 60 Kt.
50 Kt....... 25ne 20se 0sw 25nw.
34 Kt....... 40ne 30se 0sw 40nw.
12 Ft Seas.. 40ne 30se 0sw 40nw.
Winds And Seas Vary Greatly In Each Quadrant. Radii In Nautical
Miles Are The Largest Radii Expected Anywhere In That Quadrant.

Repeat...center Located Near 14.7n 110.0w At 19/0900z
At 19/0600z Center Was Located Near 14.5n 109.6w

Forecast Valid 19/1800z 15.4n 111.2w
Max Wind 55 Kt...gusts 65 Kt.
50 Kt... 25ne 25se 15sw 25nw.
34 Kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Forecast Valid 20/0600z 16.4n 112.5w
Max Wind 60 Kt...gusts 75 Kt.
50 Kt... 30ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
34 Kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 75nw.

Forecast Valid 20/1800z 17.3n 113.4w
Max Wind 65 Kt...gusts 80 Kt.
64 Kt... 15ne 15se 0sw 15nw.
50 Kt... 30ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
34 Kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 75nw.

Forecast Valid 21/0600z 18.2n 113.8w
Max Wind 65 Kt...gusts 80 Kt.
50 Kt... 30ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
34 Kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 75nw.

Forecast Valid 22/0600z 20.0n 113.5w
Max Wind 60 Kt...gusts 75 Kt.
50 Kt... 30ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
34 Kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 75nw.

Extended Outlook. Note...errors For Track Have Averaged Near 200 Nm
On Day 4 And 225 Nm On Day 5...and For Intensity Near 20 Kt Each Day

Outlook Valid 23/0600z 21.0n 112.5w
Max Wind 55 Kt...gusts 65 Kt.

Outlook Valid 24/0600z 21.5n 112.0w
Max Wind 50 Kt...gusts 60 Kt.

Request For 3 Hourly Ship Reports Within 300 Miles Of 14.7n 110.0w

Next Advisory At 19/1500z

$$

canarymoon · 09-19-2007, 06:57 AM

canarymoon · 09-19-2007, 06:59 AM

canarymoon · 09-19-2007, 10:42 AM

canarymoon · 09-19-2007, 10:43 AM

Looks like Ivo could pay a visit to either the Mexican (west) coast of the Baja in about 4 or 5 days

canarymoon · 09-19-2007, 10:47 AM

And Ivo may have some company soon. That shaded area to the west of Ivo iss (Eastern Pacific) Invest 98E.

canarymoon · 09-19-2007, 07:09 PM

Ivo continues to strengthen..with increased convective banding
around the center and the possible beginning of eye formation in
both visible and microwave imagery. Satellite intensity estimates
are 65 kt from SAB and 55 kt from TAFB. The initial intensity is
increased to 60 kt...and if Ivo is not yet a hurricane it should
become one shortly. The cirrus outflow is good to the southwest
and northeast and fair to poor elsewhere.

The storm has moved a little to the left of the previous track...with an initial motion of 290/9. Ivo remains south of a mid-levelridge extending westward from northern Mexico. The large-scalemodels are in good agreement that a deep-layer low currently movingsouthward into California will drop far enough south to break theridge north of Ivo...allowing the storm to recurve to the northeastduring the next 48-96 hr. However...it still appears the low willnot come far enough south to accelerate the storm northeastward...so the motion after recurvature is likely to be slow.