Humberto-Cat 1 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 03:32 AM

Bulletin
Hurricane Humberto Special Advisory Number 4
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al092007
1215 Am Cdt Thu Sep 13 2007

...humberto Becomes A Hurricane Just Before Landfall...
...hurricane Force Winds Cover Small Area Northeast Of Center...

At 1215 Am Cdt...0515z...a Hurricane Warning Has Been Issued From
East Of High Island Texas To Cameron Louisiana. The Hurricane
Warning For Humberto Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Within The Warning Area Within The Next Few Hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From East Of Sargent
Texas To High Island Texas...and From East Of Cameron Louisiana To
To Intracoastal City Louisiana.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 1215 Am Cdt...the Center Of Hurricane Humberto Was Located Near
Latitude 29.4 North...longitude 94.4 West Or About 20 Miles...30
Km...east Of Galveston Texas...and About 15 Miles...20 Km...south
Of High Island Texas.

Humberto Is Moving Toward The North-northeast Near 8 Mph...13 Km/hr
...and This General Direction Of Motion With Some Increase In
Forward Speed Is Expected Over The Next 24 Hours. On The Forecast
Track The Center Will Be Crossing The Upper Texas Coast Within The
Next Few Hours.

Data From An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft And Doppler Radar
Indicate That The Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 80
Mph...130 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts...confined To A Small Area
Northeast Of The Center. Humberto Is Now A Category One Hurricane
On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Little Additional Strengthening Is
Expected Prior To Landfall.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 15 Miles...30 Km...
Northeast Of The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend
Outward Up To 60 Miles...95 Km.

Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By The Aircraft Was 992
Mb...29.29 Inches.

Rainfall Amounts Of 5 To 10 Inches Are Expected Along The Track Of
Humberto Through Eastern Texas As Well As Western And Central
Louisiana...with Isolated Maximum Accumulations Of 15 Inches
Possible.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 3 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels
Can Be Expected Near And To The East Of Where The Center Makes
Landfall.

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible In Southeastern Texas And
Southwestern Louisiana Through Early Thursday.

Repeating The 1215 Am Cdt Position...29.4 N...94.4 W. Movement
Toward...north-northeast Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...80
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...992 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 400 Am Cdt.

$$
Forecaster Mainelli/avila

229
Wtnt24 Knhc 130532
Tcmat4
Hurricane Humberto Special Forecast/advisory Number 4
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al092007
0515 Utc Thu Sep 13 2007

At 1215 Am Cdt...0515z...a Hurricane Warning Has Been Issued From
East Of High Island Texas To Cameron Louisiana. The Hurricane
Warning For Humberto Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Within The Warning Area Within The Next Few Hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From East Of Sargent
Texas To High Island Texas...and From East Of Cameron Louisiana To
To Intracoastal City Louisiana.

Hurricane Center Located Near 29.4n 94.4w At 13/0515z
Position Accurate Within 10 Nm

Present Movement Toward The North-northeast Or 30 Degrees At 7 Kt

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 992 Mb
Eye Diameter 10 Nm
Max Sustained Winds 70 Kt With Gusts To 85 Kt.
64 Kt....... 15ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
50 Kt....... 25ne 25se 0sw 0nw.
34 Kt....... 50ne 50se 20sw 20nw.
12 Ft Seas.. 50ne 50se 0sw 0nw.
Winds And Seas Vary Greatly In Each Quadrant. Radii In Nautical
Miles Are The Largest Radii Expected Anywhere In That Quadrant.

Repeat...center Located Near 29.4n 94.4w At 13/0515z
At 13/0000z Center Was Located Near 28.8n 94.8w

Forecast Valid 13/1200z 30.1n 93.9w...inland
Max Wind 55 Kt...gusts 65 Kt.
50 Kt... 20ne 20se 0sw 0nw.
34 Kt... 40ne 50se 20sw 10nw.

Forecast Valid 14/0000z 31.6n 92.7w...inland
Max Wind 30 Kt...gusts 40 Kt.

Forecast Valid 14/1200z 32.5n 91.2w...inland
Max Wind 25 Kt...gusts 35 Kt.

Forecast Valid 15/0000z 32.5n 90.0w...remnant Low
Max Wind 20 Kt...gusts 25 Kt.

Forecast Valid 16/0000z...dissipated

Request For 3 Hourly Ship Reports Within 300 Miles Of 29.4n 94.4w

Next Advisory At 13/0900z

$$
Forecaster Mainelli/avila

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 03:40 AM

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane Local Statement

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-131000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
107 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...VERMILION...ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...IBERIA... UPPER AND LOWER
SAINT MARTIN...AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1215 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR 29.4 NORTH LATITUDE...94.4 WEST LONGITUDE...OR AROUND 15 MILES
SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON
LOUISIANA...AND 135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. THIS
DIRECTION OF MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF HUMBERTO WILL BE CROSSING BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND SABINE
PASS TEXAS BETWEEN 2 AM AND 4 AM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...OR 29.29 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THERE ARE NO EVACUATIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY OR CAMERON AND
VERMILION PARISHES.

HOWEVER...CALCASIEU PARISH OEP ADVISES ANYONE LIVING IN LOW-LYING
OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS TO CONSIDER A SAFER LOCATION IN THE EVENT OF
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...ANYONE WHO FEELS UNCOMFORTABLE IN HIS OR
HER CURRENT LIVING LOCATION SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO A MORE
SECURE LOCATION.

THE LAKE CHARLES CIVIC CENTER IS AVAILABLE AS A SHELTER. PERSONS
UNABLE TO TRANSPORT THEMSELVES OR GET A RIDE FROM FAMILY OR
FRIENDS TO THE SHELTER SHOULD CALL THE OFFICE OF COMMUNITY SERVICE
AT 337-721-4040.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY AND CAMERON PARISH...TIDES ARE RUNNING UP TO 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WILL RESULT IN
SIMILAR AFFECTS SEEN DURING TROPICAL STORM FRANCES IN 1998 AND
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IN 1982.

FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND SAINT MARY PARISHES...TIDES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL INCREASE TO 2
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR EXPECTED TIDE LEVELS OF 6 TO 7 FEET ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY...
HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN SABINE PASS AND PORT ARTHUR WILL SEE 1 TO 2
FEET OF WATER ACROSS THE ROAD. SIDE ROADS IN SABINE PASS WILL ALSO
BE FLOODED.

FOR EXPECTED TIDE LEVELS OF 6 TO 7 FEET ACROSS CAMERON PARISH...
PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 82 WILL HAVE FLOOD BETWEEN HOLLY BEACH AND
JOHNSON`S BAYOU...AND BETWEEN OAK GROVE AND GRAND CHENIER. ALSO
EXPECT PORTIONS OF MAIN STREET IN CAMERON TO FLOOD...WITH WATER
DEPTHS NEAR A 2 TO 3 FEET DEEP.

FOR EXPECTED TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 5 FEET ACROSS VERMILION PARISH...
SOME ROADS IN INTRACOASTAL CITY AND DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER 1 TO
2 FEET OF WATER.

FOR EXPECTED TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 5 FEET ACROSS IBERIA AND SAINT
MARY PARISHES...SOME ROADS WILL BE UNDER 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER NEAR
CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT.

TIDES AT SABINE PASS ON THURSDAY...HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 4:29
AM...LOW TIDE AT 1124 AM...HIGH TIDE AT 5:32 PM...AND LOW TIDE AT
11:27 PM.

TIDES AT CAMERON ON THURSDAY...HIGH TIDE AT 3:33 AM...LOW TIDE AT
10:38 AM...HIGH TIDE AT 4:36 PM...AND LOW TIDE AT 10:41 PM.

TIDES IN VERMILION BAY ON THURSDAY...HIGH TIDE 5:15 AM...LOW TIDE
AT 11:29 AM...HIGH TIDE AT 6:18 PM...AND LOW TIDE AT 11:32 PM.

...WIND...
THROUGH 8 AM...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS UP TO 75 TO 80 MPH WILL OCCUR
NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND CAMERON
PARISH...BETWEEN SABINE PASS AND JOHNSONS BAYOU.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...AND ORANGE.

IN CALCASIEU PARISH...WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 MPH NEAR
VINTON...TO 30 TO 40 MPH IN LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...AND WESTLAKE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES OF
RAIN.

...TORNADOES...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG I-10...EXTENDING
SOUTH TO THE COAST. TORNADO WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY FURTHER INLAND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...HYDROLOGIC IMPACT...
HIGH TIDES ALONG THE COAST WILL CAUSE WATER BACK-UP ALONG LOWER
REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...MERMENTAU...VERMILION...NECHES AND
SABINE RIVERS. CURRENTLY...THE CALCASIEU RIVER AT OLD TOWN BAY AND
SALT WATER BARRIER ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE FLOOD STAGE OF 4 FEET
LATER THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CAUSE AREA
RIVER LEVELS AND FLOWS TO INCREASE. RESIDENTS WITH INTERESTS ALONG
AREA RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FUTURE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE OUT BY 5 AM CDT.

$$

ERICKSON

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 03:43 AM

Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC245-130830-
/X.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0002.070913T0633Z-070913T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
133 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SABINE PASS...PORT NECHES...PORT
ARTHUR...NOME...NEDERLAND...HAMSHIRE...GROVES...CE NTRAL GARDENS...
BEAUMONT...

* UNTIL 330 AM CDT

* AT 131 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHINA AND
BEVIL OAKS

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3016 9412 3008 9410 3000 9400 2997 9387
2980 9394 2967 9384 2968 9405 2957 9436
2990 9436 2991 9444 3009 9444 3010 9435
3018 9417

$$

06

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 03:44 AM

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 03:48 AM

This is a strong cat 1 folks, if you are in a mobile home, get out!!

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 03:50 AM

It looks like the eye is coming ashore between Gilchrist and High Island at 1:35 am. Really amazing, we had a "simple little TD" less than 24 hours ago and we now have a landfalling borderline CAT2 intensity hurricane!!!!

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 03:56 AM

Recon is in........... . eyewall drop just got in with surface at 993mb/83kts . . . technically a borderline Cat 2 . . .

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 03:57 AM

570
WHXX01 KWBC 130644
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0644 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO (AL092007) 20070913 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070913 0600 070913 1800 070914 0600 070914 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.5N 94.4W 31.1N 94.1W 32.1N 93.3W 32.0N 92.2W
BAMD 29.5N 94.4W 31.5N 93.0W 33.8N 90.4W 36.1N 85.5W
BAMM 29.5N 94.4W 31.1N 93.7W 32.6N 92.1W 33.4N 89.6W
LBAR 29.5N 94.4W 30.7N 93.4W 32.5N 92.1W 34.7N 89.9W
SHIP 70KTS 78KTS 79KTS 76KTS
DSHP 70KTS 43KTS 32KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070915 0600 070916 0600 070917 0600 070918 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.6N 92.4W 29.0N 96.2W 30.7N 99.9W 35.8N 99.8W
BAMD 39.1N 77.0W 48.5N 60.2W 58.4N 47.5W 65.2N 38.1W
BAMM 33.0N 86.1W 32.4N 80.9W 32.8N 78.1W 33.4N 77.7W
LBAR 37.3N 85.4W 45.9N 65.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 66KTS 45KTS 27KTS 15KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 94.4W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 28.3N LONM12 = 95.0W DIRM12 = 15DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 27.3N LONM24 = 95.0W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 25NM

$$
NNNN

dropped to 989MB...70kts

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 04:01 AM

284
URNT15 KNHC 130657
065430 2932N 09414W 8429 01401 9990 +246 +999 215069 077 069 000 05
065500 2932N 09411W 8415 01444 9990 +219 +999 197093 098 074 000 05
065530 2933N 09409W 8442 01442 9990 +192 +999 186094 095 074 000 01
065600 2934N 09407W 8426 01483 9990 +181 +999 181092 094 069 000 01
065630 2935N 09406W 8431 01495 9990 +167 +999 173085 089 065 001 01
065700 2935N 09404W 8412 01529 9990 +157 +999 169080 081 060 012 01
$$

Flight levels support a cat 2

98 knots at flight level at .9 reduce is 100 mph at the surface.

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 04:15 AM

Cat 2 is not official yet