Td #8 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 09-12-2007, 11:53 AM

The area of low pressure east of the Lesser Antilles has acquired
enough organization to be declared a tropical depression...the
eighth of the Atlantic season. The center of the elongated
circulation appears to be located just east of the thunderstorm
activity due to some easterly shear. Dvorak T numbers from TAFB
and SAB support 30 kt...which will be the initial intensity.
Microwave and visible satellite imagery suggests that the cyclone
has been moving a little faster during the past 6-12 hours and the
initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 295/10. The
depression is currently located south of a narrow mid-level ridge
and the track guidance suggests a general west-northwestward heading
during the next few days. The ridge is forecast to weaken in a day
or so which should cause the depression to decelerate and move
slower than climatology.
The current easterly shear is forecast to weaken during the next day
or so which should allow for some strengthening. Thus...conditions
appear favorable for intensification during the next 2-3 days.
Beyond 72 hours....an upper level trough located north and west of
the cyclone is expected to induce southwesterly shear which should
halt any additional strengthening.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/1500z 13.2n 44.6w 30 kt
12hr VT 13/0000z 13.6n 45.9w 35 kt
24hr VT 13/1200z 14.0n 47.3w 45 kt
36hr VT 14/0000z 14.3n 48.4w 50 kt
48hr VT 14/1200z 14.6n 49.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 15/1200z 15.1n 51.4w 60 kt
96hr VT 16/1200z 16.0n 54.5w 60 kt
120hr VT 17/1200z 17.0n 57.5w 60 kt

$$
forecaster Brown

canarymoon · 09-12-2007, 12:00 PM

000ABNT20
KNHC 120201
TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED INASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FORTHIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXTDAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOWPRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HASDIMINISHED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARCONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLYWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

canarymoon · 09-12-2007, 12:24 PM

000
Wtnt33 Knhc 121438
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082007
1100 Am Edt Wed Sep 12 2007

...tropical Depression Forms Well East Of The Lesser Antilles...

At 1100 Am Edt...1500z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Eight Was Located Near Latitude 13.2 North...longitude 44.6 West Or About 1130 Miles...1815 Km...east Of The Lesser Antilles.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 12 Mph and This General Motion Is Expected To Continue With Some Decrease In Forward Speed During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph with Higher Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours And The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm Later Today Or Tonight.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1007 Mb...29.74 Inches.

Repeating The 1100 Am Edt Position...13.2 N...44.6 W. Movement Toward...west-northwest Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1007 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 500 Pm Edt.

$$
Forecaster Brown

canarymoon · 09-12-2007, 12:26 PM

canarymoon · 09-12-2007, 05:54 PM

000
Wtnt33 Knhc 122034
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 2
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082007
500 Pm Ast Wed Sep 12 2007

...depression Approaching Tropical Storm Strength...

At 500 Pm the Center Of Tropical Depression Eight Was Located Near Latitude 13.5 North...longitude 45.5 West Or About 1065 Miles east Of The Lesser Antilles.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 12 Mph and This General Motion Is Expected To Continue With Some Decrease In Forward Speed During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph with Higher Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours And The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm Tonight Or Thursday.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb..

Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position 45.5 W. Movement Toward...west-northwest Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 1100 Pm Ast.

$$

Cruise Cat · 09-12-2007, 10:29 PM

We could rename it "Tropically Depressed Chuck" I just want to go some place sunny and warm - not Canada and not Boston or any place like that.

sue miller · 09-12-2007, 10:37 PM

LOL Chuck it is moving very slow and is expected to slow down even more for awhile!!I promise you will go somewhere warm, just have to wait and see the best way to get there!!

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 01:10 AM

Bulletin
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082007
1100 Pm Ast Wed Sep 12 2007

...depression Has Not Strengthened Yet...

At 1100 Pm Ast...0300z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Eight Was
Located Near Latitude 13.4 North...longitude 46.4 West Or About 1005
Miles...1620 Km...east Of The Lesser Antilles.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West Near 12 Mph...19 Km/hr...
And A Westward To West-northwestward Motion With Some Decrease In
Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours And
The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm By Thursday.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb...29.71 Inches.

Repeating The 1100 Pm Ast Position...13.4 N...46.4 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
500 Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Landsea/pasch

Cruise Cat · 09-13-2007, 06:57 AM

Wtnt43 Knhc 130844
Tcdat3
Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 4
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082007
500 Am Edt Thu Sep 13 2007

Satellite Images And Microwave Data Indicate That The Cloud Pattern
Has Not Become Any Better Organized During The Past Few Hours And
The Low-level Center Is Located To The North Of A Large Circular
Area Of Deep Convection. Initial Intensity Remains At 30 Knots. The
Depression Still Has The Opportunity To Become A Tropical Storm
Since The Shear Is Expected To Decrease In The Next Day Or So.
Thereafter...all Global Models Forecast Strong Upper-level
Westerlies Over The Eastern Caribbean And The Adjacent Atlantic
Waters Associated With A Stronger Than Normal Upper-level Trough.
This Pattern Is Likely To Inhibit The Depression From
Strengthening Significantly. Weakening Is Indicated By The End Of
The Forecast Period As The Cyclone Approaches The Area Well To The
Northeast Of The Leeward Islands Where The Shear Is Expected To Be
Large.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Or 295 Degrees At
9 Knots Around A Weak Mid-level High Pressure System. Since Steering
Currents Are Forecast To Further Weaken...the Depression Is
Expected To Decrease In Forward Speed During The Next 12 To 24
Hours. The Cyclone Should Then Continue On This General Slow
West-northwest Track Through 5 Days. Track Gui Dace Is In Good
Agreement Bringing The Cyclone On A Slow West-northwest Motion And
Weakening. The Uk And Ecmwf Models Keep The Cyclone A Little Bit
Longer But This Is Not Realistic Given The Anticipated Highly

Cruise Cat · 09-13-2007, 06:59 AM

There is still a chance this one could head to the graveyard