Td #8 - Page 4 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

Char · 09-13-2007, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by canarymoon

Present NHC track has it in the Hebert Box Tuesday afternoon. . .

Please explain "Hebert Box". I've never heard that term before.

canarymoon · 09-13-2007, 09:58 PM

Named after Dr Paul Hebert . . . the Hebert Box thing goes like this.

If, on a map, you draw a box, with the NE corner at 60W/ 20N and the SW corner at about 65W / 15N, you have outlined the "first" Hebert box. (This is just E of Puerto Rico)

There is another one about 20 degrees farther west (GrandCayman is near its NE corner)

Hebert proved that, with only a couple of exceptions, every late season storm that has hit peninsular Florida in the last 100 years or so has first passed through these boxes. And those that missed the box(es) also missed Florida.

Dr Hebert - a really smart guy - came to these conclusions in the 70's, and storms keep proving him right by something like 9 out of 10 S Fl landfalling hurricanes.

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 10:27 PM

Char · 09-13-2007, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by canarymoon

Named after Dr Paul Hebert . . . the Hebert Box thing goes like this.

If, on a map, you draw a box, with the NE corner at 60W/ 20N and the SW corner at about 65W / 15N, you have outlined the "first" Hebert box. (This is just E of Puerto Rico)

There is another one about 20 degrees farther west (GrandCayman is near its NE corner)

Hebert proved that, with only a couple of exceptions, every late season storm that has hit peninsular Florida in the last 100 years or so has first passed through these boxes. And those that missed the box(es) also missed Florida.

Dr Hebert - a really smart guy - came to these conclusions in the 70's, and storms keep proving him right by something like 9 out of 10 S Fl landfalling hurricanes.

Thanks! I have learned a lot of good stuff here on CLF!

canarymoon · 09-13-2007, 11:05 PM

That is the way I understand it... but, since I am not a meteorologist, I make no guarantees that my understanding of the Hebert Box is 100% accurate.

Bottom line is - this time of year just watch to see if things go through there.

Graphic from HURRICANECITY Atlantic Hurricane Tracking based in Delray beach,Florida