Td #8 - Page 2 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

Char · 09-13-2007, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cruise Cat

There is still a chance this one could head to the graveyard

That would be a VERY good thing!

canarymoon · 09-13-2007, 10:18 AM

What Dr Jeff Masters is saying today about TD #8:

Tropical Depression Eight
Tropical Depression Eight is near tropical storm strength, and may get named today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a circular, well-defined circulation with a believable 40 mph wind reading near the center. Satellite loops of TD 8 show a modest improvement in appearance, with the spiral band to the north getting better defined.

SOURCE:
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

canarymoon · 09-13-2007, 10:19 AM

MORE from MASTERS:

Wind shear is about 10 knots over TD 8, and is forecast to remain below 10 knots through Saturday morning, which should allow TD 8 time to grow to a modest tropical storm. Later on Saturday, the models now unanimously agree that TD 8 will encounter hostile upper-level westerly winds. The high levels of wind shear these upper-level winds will bring are likely to seriously weaken the storm, and may be able to tear it apart. It appears likely that TD 8 will pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, sparing them its strongest winds. Should TD 8 survive past Monday, it may represent a threat to the U.S. East Coast.

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

canarymoon · 09-13-2007, 10:54 AM

canarymoon · 09-13-2007, 10:56 AM

Note (above) that the HHC brings TD 8 to TS strength very shortly - but keeps it at that level through early Tuesday morning.

canarymoon · 09-13-2007, 11:45 AM

000
Wtnt33 Knhc 131433
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 5
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082007
1100 Am Ast Thu Sep 13 2007

...disorganized Tropical Depression Eight Continuing West-northwestward...

At 1100 Am Ast The Center Of Tropical Depression Eight Was Located Near Latitude 13.9 North...longitude 48.0 West Or About 895 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 8 Mph. A Continued Gradual Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph With Higher Gusts. Although Upper Levels Have Become Less Favorable For Development...the Depression Still Has The Chance to Become A Tropical Storm During The Next 24 Hours.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb..

Repeating The 1100 Am Ast Position...13.9 N...48.0 W. Movement Toward...west-northwest Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 500 Pm Ast.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/franklin

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 11:50 AM

250
Wtnt43 Knhc 131433
Tcdat3
Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 5
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082007
1100 Am Edt Thu Sep 13 2007

A 0900z Quikscat Overpass Received After The Previous Advisory
Suggested That System Could Have Been A Tropical Storm For A Few
Hours. The Image Depicted A Few Un-flagged 35 Kt Winds Just To The
East And South Of The Center. Since Then...visible Imagery
Indicates A Severely Sheared...poorly Organized System.
Consequently...the Initial Intensity Will Be Kept At 30 Kt.

During The Next 24 Hours...intensity Guidance Suggest That There Is
Still A Chance That The Depression Will Develop Into A Tropical
Storm. Afterward...through The Remainder Of The Forecast
Period...large Scale Models Continue To Forecast Strong
Upper-tropospheric Westerlies...associated With A Deep Layer
Mid-atlantic Trough...extending From The Eastern Caribbean And
Adjacent Atlantic Waters. The Official Intensity Forecast Follows
Suit And Is Slightly Below The Previous Package.

Based On The Aforementioned Quikscat Pass And An Earlier Ssmis
Microwave Image...the Track Has Been Adjusted Slightly To The Left
Of The Previous Forecast...reflecting An Initial Estimated Motion
Of 285/7. This General Motion Should Continue Through The Entire
Forecast...with A Continued Slight Reduction In Forward Motion
During The Next 12 To 24 Hours. The Official Forecast Is Basically
A Reflection Of The Previous One...but Just To The Left...following
A Blend Of The Ukmet...gfdl...and The Gfs.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 13/1500z 13.9n 48.0w 30 Kt
12hr Vt 14/0000z 14.2n 49.0w 30 Kt
24hr Vt 14/1200z 14.5n 49.9w 35 Kt
36hr Vt 15/0000z 14.8n 50.8w 35 Kt
48hr Vt 15/1200z 15.2n 52.0w 40 Kt
72hr Vt 16/1200z 16.0n 54.4w 40 Kt
96hr Vt 17/1200z 17.0n 57.0w 40 Kt
120hr Vt 18/1200z 18.2n 59.6w 35 Kt

$$
Forecaster Roberts/franklin

canarymoon · 09-13-2007, 12:36 PM

". . .could have been a Tropical Storm for a few hours."

Probably during the same period that Humberto was a hurricane!

Whether TD8 will finally become Ingrid, and if so, what she might do is still very much up in the air.

sue miller · 09-13-2007, 12:47 PM

Yup have to watch it when it gets past 55, once it gets into the hot water could do like the others, BOOM

canarymoon · 09-13-2007, 12:51 PM

Also -
The current NHC track has it heading for the edge of the infamous 'Hebert Box,' meaning Floridians really need to keep an eye on it IF it develops.