Td #9 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 09-12-2007, 11:50 AM

542
Wtnt44 Knhc 121447
Tcdat4
Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al092007
1100 Am Edt Wed Sep 12 2007

Radar...satellite...and Buoy Observations Indicate That The Area Of
Low Pressure In The Western Gulf Of Mexico Has Become Better
Organized This Morning. Nws Radar Imagery From Corpus Christi And
Houston Show A Loose Banding Structure In The Southeast And
Northwest Quadrants...while The Northwest Winds From Noaa Buoy
42019 Indicate That The System Likely Has A Well-defined Surface
Circulation. Consequently... Tropical Cyclone Advisories Are Being
Initiated. With 38 Kt Winds Reported From Ship V7di7...the System
Might Already Be A Tropical Storm...but For The Moment Those Winds
Are Judged As Unrepresentative Of The Cyclone Scale. The Initial
Intensity Is Estimated To Be 30 Kt For Now...with A Better Read On
The Intensity Expected When A Reconnaissance Aircraft Arrives In
The Area Within The Next Hour Or So. The Depression Is In A
Light-shear Environment With Anticyclonic Flow Aloft...and Some
Intensification Is Therefore Anticipated. The Primary Inhibiting
Factor For Development Will Be The Short Period Of Time The System
Will Have Over Water. The Official Forecast Represents A Blend Of
The Ships And Gfdl Guidance.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 350/5. The Depression Is Rounding
The Western Periphery Of Mid-level High Pressure That Extends From
The Atlantic Across Florida Into The Central Gulf Of Mexico. A
Mid-latitude Short-wave Trough Over The Southwestern United States
Is Forecast To Dig Southeastward Over The Next Couple Of Days And
Induce A Gradual Turn Of The Cyclone Toward The Northeast. Model
Guidance Is In Pretty Good Agreement On This Scenario In The Short
Term...although What Happens With The Remnants Of The Cyclone After
Day 2 Is Less Clear. Most Of The Guidance Models Detach The System
From The Westerlies And Linger It Along The Gulf Coast...where It
Could Represent A Prolonged Rainfall Threat.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 12/1500z 28.1n 95.2w 30 Kt
12hr Vt 13/0000z 28.6n 95.3w 40 Kt
24hr Vt 13/1200z 29.8n 95.0w 40 Kt...inland
36hr Vt 14/0000z 31.4n 94.0w 30 Kt...inland
48hr Vt 14/1200z 32.7n 91.5w 20 Kt...remnant Low
72hr Vt 15/1200z...dissipated

$$
Forecaster Franklin

canarymoon · 09-12-2007, 11:59 AM

000ABNT20
KNHC 120201
TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED INASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FORTHIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXTDAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOWPRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HASDIMINISHED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARCONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLYWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

canarymoon · 09-12-2007, 12:13 PM

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121445
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE NLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 135 MILES EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE DEPRESSION WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...95.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

canarymoon · 09-12-2007, 12:18 PM

sue miller · 09-12-2007, 03:07 PM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCAL STATEMENT
TXZ213-214-235>238-122215-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER NINE FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON ...MATAGORDA...

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O`CONNOR TEXAS
TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY ALONG
AND TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM EDNA TO EL CAMPO TO HOUSTON TO
CONROE TO LIVINGSTON.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. REMEMBER
TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIMES EXPECTED WATER MAX

MORGANS POINT...
THU 4:02 AM. 3.1 FEET.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
WED 11:46 PM. 3.0 FEET.
EAGLE POINT...
WED 9:35 PM. 3.1 FEET.
THU 10:36 PM. 2.1 FEET.
PORT BOLIVAR...
WED 5:55 PM. 3.0 FEET.
THU 5:54 AM. 3.4 FEET.
THU 6:56 PM. 2.5 FEET.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
WED 5:41 PM. 3.0 FEET.
THU 5:40 AM. 3.4 FEET.
THU 6:42 PM. 2.5 FEET.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
WED 4:35 PM. 3.5 FEET.
THU 4:34 AM. 4.1 FEET.
THU 5:36 PM. 3.3 FEET.
JAMAICA BEACH...
WED 8:19 PM. 3.1 FEET.
THU 8:18 AM. 3.5 FEET.
THU 9:20 PM. 2.6 FEET.
SAN LUIS PASS...
WED 5:32 PM. 1.8 FEET.
THU 5:31 AM. 2.2 FEET.
THU 6:33 PM. 2.3 FEET.
FREEPORT...
WED 4:57 PM. 3.5 FEET.
THU 4:56 AM. 3.8 FEET.
THU 5:58 PM. 3.0 FEET.
PORT O CONNOR...
WED 7:34 PM. 2.4 FEET.
THU 7:30 AM. 2.7 FEET.
THU 9:02 PM. 1.9 FEET.

NOTE: TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM MEAN LOWER LOW WATER

...WINDS...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN SARGENT AND HIGH ISLAND THIS EVENING.
AREAS ALONG THE GALVESTON BAY SHORELINE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 TO 45 MPH LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS MOVING INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS.

...RAINFALL...
ALONG AND EAST OF A SARGENT TO HOUSTON TO LIVINGSTON LINE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A FREEPORT TO HOUSTON TO LIVINGSTON
LINE.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 PM CDT.

FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX.

$$