477 WHXX01 KWBC 091327 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1327 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN CELLS FROM
9N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W...AND FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W
AND 38W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE AND IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N ALONG THE WAVE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 10N. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS LOW IS FAIRLY
BROAD PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IN IT'S
VICINITY...ROUGHLY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXTENDS FURTHER W WITHIN THE ITCZ. THIS
SYSTEM IS BECOMING GRADUALLY BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. "
From Master's Blog today (my bolding for emphasis):
Tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic (91L) A strong tropical wave near 10N 38W, about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, is headed west to west-northwest at 10-15 mph. This system (91L) has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad, elongated circulation and top winds of 25 mph. Satellite loops show some disorganized clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity. The disturbance is under about 15 knots of wind shear. Shear is forecast to remain near 15 knots over three days, which may allow some slow development. Later in the week, shear is expected to drop below 10 knots, and this could lead to a better chance of development. Both the HWRF and GFDL models predict that this will be a hurricane five days from now. This seems over-aggressive, given the wave's current state of disorganization, and the shear forecast. I think the earliest this would become a tropical depression is Wednesday.
A large extratropical storm over the mid-Atlantic between Europe and the U.S. is expected to pull 91L on a more northwesterly track by mid-week. This would put 91L in a position to threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.
000ABNT20 KNHC 111516
TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ONDISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING INASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURELOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULDSTILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREACENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST REMAINDISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MOREFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULDBE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Pm Edt Tue Sep 11 2007
For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...
Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Has Persisted This Afternoon In Association With A Tropical Wave And Broad Area Of Low Pressure Located About 1200 Miles East Of The Windward Islands. Conditions Appear Favorable For Development...and This System Could Become A Tropical Depression Within A Day Or Two As It Moves West-northwestward Near 10 Mph.
A Broad Low Pressure Area That Is Centered About 100 Miles East Of
The Lower Texas Coast Is Producing Disorganized Showers And
Thunderstorms. Environmental Conditions Appear Conducive For Some
Development Of This System As It Drifts Slowly Westward Over The
Next Day Or Two.
Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.
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