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canarymoon · 09-12-2007, 08:13 AM

A tropical cyclone formation aleart has now been issued on this system...

WTNT01 KNGU 120900z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
120900Z SEP 07//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N 42W TO 14N 46W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010MB IS LOCATED APPROX 1000NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILIES NEAR 13N 43W. MOVEMENT IS WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 6 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVER WINDS DISPLAY DIVERGENCE IN THE WINDS FIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, OR CANCELLED BY 130900Z SEP 2007.//

canarymoon · 09-12-2007, 08:18 AM

Char · 09-12-2007, 08:20 AM

Doesn't look good

canarymoon · 09-12-2007, 08:32 AM

Yep - We will have a TD at the very least today, looks like.

canarymoon · 09-12-2007, 11:13 AM

Dr Jeff Masters said this about this system this morning:

A strong tropical wave near 12.5N 44W, 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at 10 mph. This system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression today, and has the potential to become a large and dangerous major hurricane next week

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground