THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN AREA OF WEATHER TONIGHT IS IN THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LOW. DISORGANIZED
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE GENERALLY OVER THE S/SE
GULF S OF 28N E OF 89W. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE SW FLORIDA. THE MOST PRONOUNCED AREA
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 23N87W. AS OF 09/0300 UTC THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED
ALONG 23N89W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...AND CONTINUES
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO JUST OFFSHORE CAPE CANAVERAL IN THE
ATLC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
This little puppy was very quiet for a while... just continued to hang out S of Texas appearing to be in the process of dissipating ... now, it's back "on the radar" again!
Speaking of words, here's the latest discussion notes on the system from the NHC:
THE AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE NW GULF HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT. AS OF 09Z...THE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N95W 1008
MB...WHICH IS 2 MB LOWER THAN OBSERVED 3 HOURS EARLIER AT 06Z.
IN ACCORDANCE...SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT AN INCREASE IN WINDS
WITH THE HIGHEST REPORT NEAR 29 KT E OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER
...THIS REPORT SEEMS SUSPECT AND UNREPRESENTATIVE WHEN COMPARED
TO THE SURROUNDING 10-20 KT REPORTS. THESE OBSERVATIONS ALSO
REVEAL THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL AN ELONGATED N-S TROUGH
AXIS...THOUGH DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW
AN IMPROVED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE CLOUD AND RAIN
ELEMENTS. PROBABLY THE CLEAREST INDICATION OF THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE IS THE INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH HAS STARTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME SE TEXAS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ROUGHLY WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
Invest 90 is now over my house. It's been raining steadily for about 90 minutes. Not a heavy rain, you can still see far enough in front of you to drive.
I went to the computer to see where the front was and to see how quickly it was moving through, and instead the radar showed circulating rain bands around a very loose core.
The "storm" has not reached downtown yet, but Hobby Airport has had rain for about a half hour.
If this moves to the northeast like the models show, DFW should not see it, and maybe not even Bush ariport on the north side of Houston.
Dsaat
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
845 Am Edt Wed Sep 12 2007
Satellite And Nws Radar Observations Indicate That The Area Of Low
Pressure In The Northwestern Gulf Of Mexico Is Becoming Better
Organized This Morning. This System Could become A Tropical Depression Later Today...and an Air Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Will Investigate The Area Early This Afternoon. The Low Is Moving Slowly North-northwestward...and
Regardless Of Whether Or Not It Becomes A Tropical Cyclone...heavy Rains Are Expected To Spread Across Southeastern Texas And Louisiana Over The Next Couple Of Days. For Information Specific
To Your Area...please Consult Statements Issued By Your Local Nws
Forecast Office.
The rain has stopped here, but it looks only temporary. As long as we do not get too much rain in my area, we should be fine. However, not too far from here, to the north and to the west, extra rain could mean flooding.
Not your fault at all, MC.
The models are usually pretty quirky when the 'area of disturbed weather' has not yet actually formed a true center and become at least a Tropical Depression . . . Until then, they don't have an accurate reference point (center) off of which to initialize. But, since models operate on the assumption that they are dealing with a closed center, they are starting off with suspect data when they don't have one.
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