Thread: (Pacific) TS GIL

No Public Advisory since land is not currently threatened; but, here is the Discussion:


WTPZ25 KNHC 292030
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 110.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 110.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.5N 122.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Wtpz45 Knhc 300231
Tcdep5
Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep102007
800 Pm Pdt Wed Aug 29 2007

Latest Conventional And Microwave Satellite Imagery Indicates Gil
Has Not Strengthened. In Fact...the Center Of Circulation Has Been
Difficult To Locate Implying A Poorly Organized Cyclone. Dvorak
Intensity Estimates Are Unchanged And So Is The Initial Advisory
Intensity. Gil Is Located Within A Rather Hostile Environment
Consisting Of Moderate Easterly Shear And A Relatively Stable Air
Mass. Additionally...there Are Cooler Waters Along The Forecast
Track. These Factors Should Limit Strengthening And Gil Is Likely
At Or Very Near Its Peak Intensity. The Official Forecast Allows
For A Little Additional Strengthening During The Next 12 Hours As
The System Enters The Diurnal Convective Maximum. Thereafter...
Weakening Is Expected With Gil Degenerating Into A Remnant Low In 3
Days...if Not Sooner.

Gil Appears To Be Moving More Towards The West With A Slight
Increase In Forward Speed. The Initial Motion Estimate Is Now
270/12. The Cyclone Is South Of A Strong Ridge Over The
Southwestern United States...which Should Maintain A General
Westward Motion As Long As The Cyclone Maintains Some Vertical
Depth. Beyond 24 Hours...gil Is Expected To Become A Progressively
Shallow System With A Turn Towards The West-southwest. The Official
Forecast Is Essentially An Update To The Previous Package...and Is
In Closest Agreement The Florida State Superensemble Models.

Good!
Sounds like Gil won't be a serious threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

That's the kind of news we need for the rest of the season in all of the basins . . . no threat to land!