Thread: Invest 95L -East of Jacksonville

THIS is off the US East Coast, and should move AWAY from us. (See next post.)

HOWEVER -

If you are cruising to Bermuda, this may be something to keep in mind . . .

Early Models -
(remember - these are early, and will likely change to one extent or another)

Looks like Recon may go in tomorrow.

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT...SHRA FOCUSING ON THE NW-SE ORIENTED CONVG BAND...WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING A LEE-ORL-MLB LINE AND PUSHING QUICKLY SWD. EXTRAPOLATING IT`S MOVEMENT PLACES IT OVER THE FAR SRN CWA BY 00Z...
SO HAVE LIMITED TEMPORAL/SPATIAL RANGE OF EARLY EVENING SHRA TO NO
LATER THAN 01Z OVER LAND/03Z OVER WATER...FROM ABOUT FPR SWD. WITH
DEARTH OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLC...HAVE CLEARED OUT SKIES MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED SHRA OVER THE ATLC WATERS.

THU-FRI...AN EXPOSED LL CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR 30.1N AND 76W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SOUTH DRIFT ON THU...BECOMING SITUATED JUST N
OF THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRI. AIR FORCE HURR HUNTERS ARE TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM DURING A FIRST FLIGHT EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GFS RUN KEEPS FEATURE JUST OFF THE FL COAST WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH FRI THEN BEGINS A SLOW NE DRIFT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL REMAINING IN GENERAL PROXIMITY OT THE REGION. THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SYSTEM TO
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE FL COAST AS INDICATED BY NHC OBJECTIVE AIDS AS WELL AS THE LATEST GFDL SOLN. WITH THIS IN MIND THE LT ELEMENTS REMAIN SUBJECT TO FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM. WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW QUITE A LOT OF DRY AIR INGESTING ONTO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WHICH WOULD HINDER EVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE AREA ON THE DRYER SIDE OF SYS AND WL KEEP JUST A SCT POP IN FCST OVER MARINE AND LAND AREAS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF ISOLD PRECIP AT THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OUT OF THE NORTH @ THE COAST AND AROUND 10 MPH INLAND WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS WITH DECENT DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO NLY COMPONENT.

EXTENDED...FORECAST SHOWS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND WL FORECAST GFS
MOTION TO SYS IN LINE W/ HPC SFC PROGS AS WELL WITH SLOW NE TO E MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AWAY FROM AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF SYSTEM INITIALLY RESTRICTS MOVEMENT AWAY
FROM THE AREA BUT AS HIGH MOVES AWAY OVER THE OPEN ATLC THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FROM THE REGION ON TUE. WL KEEP ISOLD SCT POPS IN FCST WITH SOME DRYING BY MIDWEEK AS STABLE AIRMASS FROM MARINE AREA MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW.


.MARINE...N-NE WIND SURGE AROUND 15KT BEHIND SWD MOVING BDRY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SEAS UP TO AROUND 4FT AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. GIVEN LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS/SHRA ON RADAR/VIS SAT IMAGERY...HAVE TAKEN OUT PRECIP OVER THE ATLC AFTER 03Z. BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREA THU-FRI WITH ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING
ON POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAWING CLOSER TO THE MARINE AREA. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT ANY
INCREASE IN WINDS WOULD REQUIRE CAUTION STATEMENTS IN LATER
FORECASTS.


SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

A WEAKENING NON-TROPICAL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ANOTHER NON-TROPICAL LOW ... DRIFTING SOUTHWARD...HAS FORMED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE LOWS EXTEND A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-M OVING TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

Here's what Accuweather has to say about this on AccuWeather.com - Weather Blogs - Weather News

Hurricane Center meteorologists report the area of concern closest to the United States is a low pressure center spiraling off the Southeast coast. With light steering winds in place, the low through Friday will continue to spin in place over the warm Atlantic water. Air Force Hurricane Hunters may be sent today to investigate the development of the system, which is forecast to move to the northeast this weekend as high pressure builds in from the east.

95L has now drifted South and is now NE of the Bahamas, or SE of Jacksonville.

A new one, 96 L is now off the coast of the Carolinas.

95L still could possibly be upgraded to a TD, but will still probably move NE away from laand.