Disturbance in Atlantic could head toward Florida - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

MD11F · 08-21-2007, 03:10 AM

August 21, 2007

Another disturbance has cropped up in the western Atlantic northeast of Puerto Rico, and it could aim toward Florida as a tropical system, the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said Monday.

"Any time you have a system this close, in your backyard, you want to keep an eye on it," said Hugh Cobb, a hurricane center meteorologist.

On Monday evening, the disturbance was about 1,200 miles southeast of Miami, moving northwest at 15 to 20 mph. It was an area of low pressure and thunderstorms with no real organization, Cobb said.

Yet it could slowly grow into a tropical depression or a tropical storm, he said. It could even intensify into a hurricane, although that is less likely.

Another possibility: the disturbance could arrive as a blob of wet weather.

"If it continues westward, at the very least it will increase the rain activity around here," he said.

Cobb noted that Hurricane Katrina formed in the same area in August 2005. That storm went on to hit South Florida and cause vast destruction on the Gulf Coast.

MCcruiser · 08-21-2007, 09:49 PM

I think you are referring to Disturbance 92L. It became less organized today, but that can change in a few hours or a few days.

MD11F · 08-22-2007, 03:59 AM

August 22, 2007

Don't put the shutters up yet, but keep an umbrella handy. A tropical disturbance in the western Atlantic should bring rain and thunderstorms to South Florida today and Thursday, but likely won't develop into a tropical depression or storm, forecasters said.

"What we're looking at is scattered showers and thunderstorms, nothing out of the ordinary," said meteorologist Roberto Garcia of the National Weather Service in Miami.

The system, called a tropical wave — an area of low pressure laden with moisture — should produce about a half an inch of rain over most of South Florida, with some areas possibly seeing more, Garcia said. On Tuesday night, the disturbance was centered about 400 miles east of the Bahamas, moving west at 15-20 mph, the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said.

Today's official forecast for South Florida: partly cloudy skies, a 60 percent chance of rain, highs near 90 and lows in the low 80s. The rain chance on Thursday: 50 percent.

"By Thursday evening, the tropical wave will gradually shift off to the west of us," weather service meteorologist Dan Dixon said.

On Monday, the hurricane center said the disturbance had potential to develop. On Tuesday, the center said the system showed no signs of organization and that it was unlikely to strengthen.