Thread: Dean is a Cat 5 landfall at Majahual

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on August 21, 2007

...Air Force reconnaissance plane finds Dean with 80 mph winds...

at 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...the government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from Progreso southward to Campeche. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast of Mexico from south of Campeche westward to Tampico. Preparations in the
western portion of the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed to
completion.

At 10 PM CDT the government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward to Bahia Algodones. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from north of Tampico to Bahia
Algodones.

At 1000 PM CDT the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 19.9 north...longitude 93.0 west or about 215 miles east-northeast of Veracruz Mexico and about 295 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico.

Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph and this general motion is expected to continue until landfall along the coast of central coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Dean is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some intensification is possible before landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. A Mexican Navy automatic station located at cayo
arcas recently reported winds gusts to 72 mph..

Minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force hurricane hunter plane was 979 mb.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels is possible...along with large and dangerous battering waves...along the coast of Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area.

Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches over parts of southern and central Mexico...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible over portions of south Texas.

Repeating the 1000 PM CDT position...19.9 N...93.0 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80 mph. Minimum central pressure...979 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 100 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 400 am CDT.


$$Forecaster Avila

Originally Posted by MCcruiser

I didn't get my wish, it's not a tropical storm. But Dean is down to a Cat 1, and hopefully he will lose some momentum overnight.


Think Higher Pressure - for Dean , not you.

It's working - Dean is up 9 millibars since this last post. Still 80mph, but that is only 6 mph above the strongest Tropical Storm. I'm not giving up - keeping thinking "Tropical Storm Dean".

000
Wtnt34 Knhc 220835
Tcpat4
Bulletin
Hurricane Dean Advisory Number 37
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
400 Am Cdt Wed Aug 22 2007

...dean Slowly Re-organizing Over The Bay Of Campeche...expected To
Make Landfall Later Today...

At 4 Am Cdt...0900 Utc...the Government Of Mexico Has Extended The
Hurricane Warning Northward Along The Gulf Coast Of Mexico To La
Cruz. A Hurricane Warning Is Now In Effect Along The Gulf Coast Of
Mexico From South Of Campeche Westward To La Cruz. Preparations In
The Western Portion Of The Hurricane Warning Area Should Be Rushed
To Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect Along The Gulf Coast Of
Mexico From North Of La Cruz To Bahia Algodones.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 400 Am Cdt...0900z...the Center Of Hurricane Dean Was Located
Near Latitude 20.3 North...longitude 94.8 West Or About 120 Miles...
190 Km...northeast Of Veracruz Mexico And About 175 Miles...280 Km
...east-southeast Of Tuxpan Mexico.

Dean Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 20 Mph...32 Km/hr...
And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24
Hours. This Motion Should Bring The Center Of Dean Across The Gulf
Coast Of Mexico Later Today.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 80 Mph...130 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Dean Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Some Strengthening Is Possible Before Landfall...followed By
Weakening After Landfall.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 200
Miles...325 Km. Noaa Buoy 42055 Recently Reported A 1-minute
Average Wind Of 57 Mph...91 Km/hr...and A Gust Of 65 Mph...104
Km/hr.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 979 Mb...28.91 Inches.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 6 To 8 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Is
Possible...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...along
The Coast Of Mexico Within The Hurricane Warning Area.

Dean Is Expected To Produce Storm Total Rainfall Of 5 To 10 Inches
Over Parts Of Southern And Central Mexico...with Maximum Amounts Of
Up To 20 Inches. These Rains Could Cause Life-threatening Flash
Floods And Mudslides.

Repeating The 400 Am Cdt Position...20.3 N...94.8 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 20 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...80
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...979 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 700 Am Cdt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 1000
Am Cdt.

$$
Forecaster Beven/brown

More pics


Chetumal appears to have received extensive vegetation damage, in addition to some structural damage. Several signs have been blown down by the winds. There has been some flooding per the images and some reports. Fortunately, the storm chaser safely rode out the storm in Chetumal, which truly escaped by the skin of its teeth. It is quite akin to Andrew, where damage varied from moderate or extensive (Miami and Coconut Grove) to extreme (Perrine and Cutler Bay area) over a distance of (at most) 15 miles. Chetumal narrowly missed the maximum sustained winds (1-min), as they were confined to the immediate coast from 20 miles south of Puerto Madero to the Majahual area (where the eye moved ashore).

Here are the images:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ebrmx/

Majahual has been extremely battered by this hurricane - look at these images. They demonstrate the effects of storm surge, added wave heights, and very strong winds. This is absolutely amazing:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ebrmx/1198644045/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ebrmx/1198642917/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ebrmx/1198641869/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ebrmx/1198640341/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ebrmx/1198639393/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ebrmx/1199504512/

Note the severe tree and vegetative damage (background) - most leaves and branches have been stripped by the wind gusts. You can see several mature Cocos nucifera specimens (Coconut Palms) which have been snapped at the crownshaft (top) and middle trunk. The surge probably partially mitigated the complete destruction to buildings and materials via winds. This damage undoubtedly is among the most severe wind and erosion destruction I have seen - hopefully, this area will get back on its feet!

Wtnt34 Knhc 221156
Tcpat4
Bulletin
Hurricane Dean Intermediate Advisory Number 37a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
700 Am Cdt Wed Aug 22 2007

...dean Beginning To Strengthen Over The Bay Of Campeche...expected
To Make Landfall Later Today...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect Along The Gulf Coast Of
Mexico From South Of Campeche Westward To La Cruz. Preparations In
The Western Portion Of The Hurricane Warning Area Should Be Rushed
To Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect Along The Gulf Coast Of
Mexico From North Of La Cruz To Bahia Algodones.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 700 Am Cdt...1200z...the Center Of Hurricane Dean Was Located
Near Latitude 20.5 North...longitude 95.5 West Or About 100 Miles...
160 Km...north-northeast Of Veracruz Mexico And About 120 Miles...
195 Km...east-southeast Of Tuxpan Mexico.

Dean Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 20 Mph...32 Km/hr...
And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24
Hours. This Motion Should Bring The Center Of Dean Across The Gulf
Coast Of Mexico This Afternoon.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 90 Mph...150 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Dean Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Some Strengthening Is Possible Prior To Landfall.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 200
Miles...325 Km.

The Latest Pressure Reported By An Air Force Reserve Unit
Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 976 Mb...28.82 Inches.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 6 To 8 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Is
Possible...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...near And
To The North Of Where The Center Makes Landfall.

Dean Is Expected To Produce Storm Total Rainfall Of 5 To 10 Inches
Over Parts Of Southern And Central Mexico...with Maximum Amounts Of
Up To 20 Inches. These Rains Could Cause Life-threatening Flash
Floods And Mudslides.

Repeating The 700 Am Cdt Position...20.5 N...95.5 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 20 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...90
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...976 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 1000 Am Cdt.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/mainelli

hmmm . . . A little stronger this morning
Winds up 10 mph and pressure down by three to 976.

Looks like the windfield has expanded considerably since last night, too...

<sigh>

Dean has made a second landfall in Tampico Mexico, Heavy wind, rain and flooding has started!!

Correction, about to make Landfall!!

The oil rigs I pictured above is getting lashed!!

Recon is in it now, winds are fluctating between 92 and 108 KTS

CDERA has mounted a Level Two Response based on the preliminary damage
assessment and needs analysis reports received from the impacted States of
Dominica, Saint Lucia and Jamaica and Belize.





- Significant damage reported in communities across Jamaica

• From: <webmaster at cdera.org>
• Date: 20 Aug 2007 16:14:49 -0000

Situation Report #5 Hurricane Dean, August 20, 2007, 11.00am EDT

Bridgetown, Barbados, August 20, 2007 (CDERA) - The Event: Hurricane Dean impacted the Lesser Antilles on Friday August 17, 2007 as a Category 2 Hurricane Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale and as a Category four during its passage across Jamaica on Sunday August 19. As Dean moved past Jamaica maximum sustained winds were near 145 mph (230 km/hr).

Dean caused the deaths of two persons in Dominica and one in Saint Lucia. Generally the damage to the islands of the Lesser Antilles was minimal. Dominica and Saint Lucia reported wind damage to roofs, flooding and landslides in several areas.
Jamaica has reported severe wind damage, significant flooding and storm surges in several of the Southern Parishes
As of 11.00am today, Monday August 20 a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for all of Belize. The Government of Belize has extended the Hurricane Warning southward from Belize City to the border with Guatemala. A hurricane warning also remains in effect for the Cayman Islands

Hurricane Dean remains a Category 4 and at 11.00a.m was located near latitude 17.9 North and longitude 82.4 West or about 125miles (200km) southwest of Grand Cayman and about 385 miles 615 km east of Belize City. Maximum sustained winds near150 mph (240 km/hr) with higher gusts. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95km) from the centre and tropical storm winds extend outward up to 205 miles (305km)
Prognosis:
Dean is moving toward the west near 21 mph..33 km/hr..and a westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. On this track the center of the hurricane is expected to
make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula very early Tuesday morning.

THE SITUATION – JAMAICA
Initial damage assessment will commence as soon as the all clear is given. Preliminary reports from the Jamaica Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management have indicated the following parishes to be severely affected.
• St.Thomas
• Portland
• St. Mary
• St. Catherine
• St. James
• Kingston and St. Andrew
• Clarendon
Shelterees
5,169 persons are housed in 213 shelters across the island

Damage
Housing Stock
Extensive wind damage reported in several communities, including roof damage and collapsed structures,
Roads
Several roads are impassable due to flooding or fallen trees
Telecommunications
Cellular telephone lines are down in sections of Portland, St. Mary and Clarendon
Water
There have been reports of damage to water supply systems in some communities
Electricity
Reports of downed utility poles. Electricity was turned off ahead of impact as a precautionary
measure.

BELIZE
Preparations continue in Belize. Another Cabinet Meeting is scheduled for today to discuss emergency preparations.
DOMINICA
Damage assessment is continuing.
Dominica National Disaster Office has reported the following:
The Cabinet is scheduled to meet today to determine if a disaster declaration is required based on the initial damage assessment reports.
Reports indicate extensive damage to the agriculture sector

Government of Venezuela has provided a relief package which includes:
500 blankets; 500 sheets; 3 large tents; water; 120 units of tarpaulin and medical supplies.

REGIONAL RESPONSE:
Reports from Jamaica will inform the level of regional response as arrangements in place for a worst case scenario may not be required.
The Regional Technical Support and other Teams remain on standby for deployment

Contact Details: The CDERA CU 24hr contact number is 246 425 0386