Hello to all,
Statia was very lucky. We did have tropical storm force winds.There was electricity outages and all flights were cancelled after 10:00AM. I only measured 6/10th of an inch of rain at my house.
When we came to work our beach was almost gone and the waves were big. ( see below) We are still getting large waves and loosing more beach.
All of us at Dive Statia send our blessings to those in the track of the now very powerfull Dean.
Rinda
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- Dean
From: "Dive Statia" <info at divestatia.com>
Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2007 08:12:57 -0400
Goodmorning to those of us that still have electricity!!!
We have brisk winds and the seas are building on the East side. The harbour is calm but that should change later today.
Yesterday all the boats on the island were pulled out of the water. That task took all afternoon. Two cranes, flatbed truck and a forklift. No rain but lots of dark clouds.
We hope our neighbors to the south are O.K..
A LOT of people are worrked about Jamaican and the Caymans... it's looking more and more like a direct for Jamaica. The last time they had an actual direct hit was with Gilbert in 1988.
Ivan got them, but not direct, and he caused all sorts of damage.
Dr Jeff Masters has a lot to say about Dean in his blog, including some very specific words for some of our favorite Cruise Places:
Haiti Dean will make a very close passage to the south of Haiti's mountainous southern Peninsula, and the capital city of Port-au-Prince could experience winds just below hurricane force. A Category 4 or 5 hurricane passing so close to Haiti is a serious threat. Deforestation has denuded the mountainsides of protective tree cover, and flood waters will wash down the mountains into populated areas. The only saving grace in this situation may be the relatively rapid forward speed of Dean, which will reduce the amount of rain that will fall, compared to other hurricanes that have affected Haiti.
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Jamaica is my greatest concern. A direct hit by Dean would make it the worst hurricane strike on Jamaica for over a century. Jamaica has not received a direct hit by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane since perhaps 1832. The worst strikes of the 20th century were Category 3 Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Category 2 Hurricane Charlie of 1951. The Cayman Islands also have much to fear from Dean. Dean could rival Ivan as the Cayman's worst hurricane strike of the past century.
Cuba
Mountainous regions in Cuba area also at risk of dangerous flash flooding from Dean. However, civil defense is so good in Cuba that I don't expect any loss of life. Portions of south Cuba will experience sustained tropical force winds.
Mexico
The models have come into much better agreement this morning on the longer term forecast, and it looks very bad for Cancun and Cozumel. Dean will give those resort areas a pounding like they received from Hurricane Emily (Category 4) in 2005, and Hurricane Gilbert (Category 5) in 1988. Dean will probably not be as bad as Wilma (Category 4) in 2005, since Wilma stalled out over Cancun for three days as a major hurricane. Dean is moving quickly, and will not linger long over any of the regions it strikes.
...Outer fringes of Hurricane Dean lashing the South Coast of
Hispaniola...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from
the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane
Warning is also in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is still in effect along the South
Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to
Barahona...and for coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the
northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning
is also effect for portions of Cuba...from the province of Camaguey
eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean...including
western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...should closely monitor the
progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
At 500 PM AST...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 16.1 north...longitude 70.2 west or about 455 miles...
735 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 165 miles...
270 km...south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will continue to
move south of Hispaniola today and will be near Jamaica on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations
in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles...370 km. Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic has been
experiencing tropical storm force wind gusts for the past several
hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb...27.46 inches.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over
Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible. Amounts
of 4 to 6 inches are possible over southern Haiti with maximum
totals of 10 inches possible. The remainder of the Dominican
Republic...Haiti and eastern Cuba...could receive 2 to 4 inches of
rain with maximum amounts up to 7 inches possible. Additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible over Puerto Rico...with
isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 9 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
possible near the center of Dean in the Hurricane Warning area.
Repeating the 500 PM AST position...16.1 N...70.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150
mph. Minimum central pressure...930 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.
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Dean is a Cat 4
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