Dean is a Cat 3...125MPH - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 08-17-2007, 03:09 PM

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Bulletin
Hurricane Dean Special Advisory Number 18
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
145 Pm Ast Fri Aug 17 2007

...dean Strengthens To A Major Hurricane With 125 Mph Winds...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For Martinique...dominica...
And Guadeloupe And Its Dependencies. The Warning Will Likely Be
Discontinued Later Today.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The U.s. Virgin
Islands And Puerto Rico. A Tropical Storm Warning Also Remains In
Effect For The Following Islands Of The Lesser Antilles...saba...st.
Eustatius...montserrat...antigua...nevis...st Kitts...barbuda...st.
Maarten...and Anguilla And The British Virgin Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For St. Lucia.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect Along The South Coast Of
The Dominican Republic From Cabo Engano To The Haiti/dominican
Republic Border. A Hurricane Watch Also Remains In Effect From Cabo
Beata To The Haiti/dominican Republic Border.

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For
Haiti From The Haiti/dominican Republic Border To Port-au-prince.

A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

Interests Elsewhere In The Central And Western Caribbean...including
Jamaica And The Cayman Islands...should Closely Monitor The Progress
Of Dean.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 145 Pm Ast...1745z...the Center Of Hurricane Dean Was Located
Near Latitude 14.8 North...longitude 63.6 West Or About 175 Miles...
280 Km...west Of Martinique And About 300 Miles...480 Km...southeast
Of San Juan Puerto Rico.

Dean Is Moving Toward The West Near 22 Mph...35 Km/hr...and This
Motion Is Expected To Continue. On This Track...dean Will Move
Across The Eastern Caribbean Sea Today.

Satellite Images And Data From An Air Force Reconnaissance Plane
Indicate That Dean Has Strengthened. The Maximum Sustained Winds
Are Now 125 Mph...205 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Dean Is A Major
Category Three Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Hurricane Scale.
Additional Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles...35 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 185
Miles...295 Km. Bands Of Heavy Squalls Are Still Affecting Portions
Of The Lesser Antilles And Are Approaching Puerto Rico And The U.s.
And British Virgin Islands.

Latest Estimated Minimum Central Pressure By A Reconnaissance
Aircraft Was 961 Mb...28.38 Inches.

Storm Total Amounts Of 1 To 2 Inches Can Be Expected From Dean Over
Puerto Rico And The Dominican Republic...with Maximum Amounts Up To
5 Inches. Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of 1 To 2 Inches Are
Expected In The Lesser Antilles...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of
10 Inches In Mountainous Areas. These Rains Could Cause Life-
Threatening Flash Floods And Mudslides.

Repeating The 145 Pm Ast Position...14.8 N...63.6 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 22 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...125 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...961 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
500 Pm Ast.

$$
Forecaster Avila/mainelli

sue miller · 08-17-2007, 03:15 PM

MCcruiser · 08-17-2007, 03:45 PM

I am NOT happy with any of these models, but obviously, the GFDL and AEMN both have me very worried. I am still drying out from Erin yesterday.

These two models seem to be the only ones that take weather inland into account. There is a L moving across the country that the forecasters believe will make the storm hook more to the north. The reason these models have moved further east is that the L is now predicted to be moving faster and therefore it will be further east. I don't want that storm here, but I certainly don't want it going to Louisiana or Mississippi - they are still trying to get back on their feet after 2005.

Update: I just noticed CLP5. Don't like that one either.

sue miller · 08-17-2007, 03:59 PM

Not good Mindy!! I watched the NC for Houston this morning and I am glad they are looking ahead just in case!! This doesn't look good for anyone on the gulf coast, get your pland and preps ready then we just wait and see!!

Cruise Princess · 08-17-2007, 05:14 PM

Mindy- Keep in mind you can always come & camp out up here. You'll be more than welcome here. I've got room for ya and I'm sure Brian and Jackie do too. We'll throw a Hurricane Party for ya!

sue miller · 08-17-2007, 05:42 PM

sue miller · 08-17-2007, 05:49 PM

Hurricane Dean Discussion Number 19
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
500 Pm Edt Fri Aug 17 2007

Data From The Air Force Hurricane Hunter Plane Earlier Today
Indicated That Dean Reached 110 Knots. Next Plane Is Expected To
Reach Dean Around 00 Utc Tonight. Satellite Images Continue To Show
An Eye Feature...numerous Cyclonically Curved Convective Bands
Which Are Still Affecting A Large Portion Of The Lesser Antilles.
The Outflow Is Well Established In All Quadrants. Although The
Possibility Of Some Fluctuations In Intensity Due To Eyewall
Replacement Cycles Could Occur At Any Time...the Shear Is Forecast
To Remain Low And The Ocean Temperature Increases Westward. This
Would Call For An Overall Upward Intensity Trend. This Is
Supported By The Ships....gfdl And Hwrf Intensity Guidance.

Dean Is Moving Toward The West Or 280 Degrees At 18 Knots. The
Steering Pattern Continues To Be Controlled By The High Pressure
System To The North Of The Hurricane And The Mid To Upper-level Low
Over The Southwestern Atlantic And Florida. This Low Is Forecast
To Weaken And Move Westward And Be Replaced By A Ridge. This
Pattern Would Maintain Dean Over The Caribbean On A General
Westward Track Across Northern Yucatan And The Western Gulf Of
Mexico. The Gfdl Shows A More Northwesterly Track Across Extreme
Western Cuba And The Central Gulf Of Mexico. While This Solution Is
Outside The Overall Model Guidance Envelope...it Can Not Be Rule
Out Completely Since This Model Has An Excellent Forecast Track
History. The Official Track Forecast Is An Update Of The Previous
One And Follows The Model Consensus.

The Bottom Line Is That Dean Is Expected To Be A Dangerous Hurricane
Through The Next Several Days...and All Interests In The Caribbean
Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico Should Closely Monitor The Progress Of
Dean.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 17/2100z 15.0n 64.5w 110 Kt
12hr Vt 18/0600z 15.5n 67.4w 115 Kt
24hr Vt 18/1800z 16.4n 70.8w 120 Kt
36hr Vt 19/0600z 17.3n 74.0w 125 Kt
48hr Vt 19/1800z 18.0n 77.0w 130 Kt
72hr Vt 20/1800z 20.0n 84.0w 130 Kt
96hr Vt 21/1800z 22.0n 90.0w 100 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 22/1800z 24.5n 96.0w 105 Kt

$$
Forecaster Avila

MCcruiser · 08-17-2007, 07:14 PM

I have a hotel reservation for next week, in case we decide to get out of town. One of the models showed a direct on Houston for mid week. It has since changed, but I am not waiting for Jim Cantore to show up here before I look for hotels.

We can always cancel a reservation, but it is hard to get one, especially at a place that takes pets, when everyone else has the same idea.

Austin is already booked, since classes at the University start the following Monday. LOTS to consider.

sue miller · 08-17-2007, 07:42 PM

You are smart Mindy!! Better to be safe than sorry!! When we sailed during Wilma we had a post cruise hotel, it was closed when we got back and everything was booked all the way to Orlando, my daughter got a flight changed to the same day and we drove home!! If you hget lucky it won't come near you, but at least you are prepared!!

Cruise Princess · 08-17-2007, 09:06 PM

Well just in case just know there is Free room and board for you and the pets in DFW if you're willing to drive to Dallas/Fort Worth.