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From San Juan......................



...HURRICANE DEAN STRENGTHENING AND RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE DEAN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND ITS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADIUS HAS
EXPANDED AS TO BE A CONCERN TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS... CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND PUERTO RICO.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 PM AST...HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX
OR ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 710 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. DEAN WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 23 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. RESIDENTS OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT WILL IMPACT MARINE
INTERESTS SIGNIFICANTLY AS STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SURF
AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM
PORT.

...WINDS...
CURRENTLY THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 150 MILES FROM THE
CENTER OF DEAN. AT THIS TIME THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH
OF SAINT CROIX AND PUERTO RICO`S SOUTH COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH OVERLAND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF SAINT CROIX AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL
LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND OR A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS
TRACK TO THE NORTH COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...INLAND FLOODING...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGES
OF HURRICANE DEAN SHOULD BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
CENTER OF DEAN PASSES SOUTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SEVEN
INCHES IN THE INTERIOR SECTORS. FLASH FLOODS OR MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ATLANTIC
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 12 FEET AS
HURRICANE DEAN PASSES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE
HARBOR FRIDAY MORNING AND PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR
VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFE HARBOR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1145 PM AST BY
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST IN SAN JUAN.

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Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner:


Quote:
Dean was ignored today due to ongoing flood issues in Harris County.

Very dangerous hurricane forecasted into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Residents along the NW and W Gulf of Mexico should review hurricane preparedness procedures and be prepared to enact these plans late this weekend or early next week.

State of TX EOC will begin H-120 count down at noon Friday for fuel transport to evac zones and sweeping of evac routes. Local EOC’s and will begin local initiation of hurricane procedures plans at noon Friday.

Discussion:

Category 2 hurricane racing toward the Windward Islands with 100mph winds. Dean looks like a classic developing hurricane this evening with deep cold cloud tops over the center with an eye peaking through at times. Recon. reported a central pressure of 974mb this afternoon.

Track:

Forecast track is clustered along a due west track through the Caribbean with Dean reaching the western Caribbean late this weekend as a powerful cat 4/5 hurricane capable of catastrophic damage. GFDL continues to be a northern outlier taking the hurricane toward the middle/upper TX coast on its 18Z run. GFS and other models are cluster southward along the TX coast and N Mexico coast…although GFS ensembles are showing more of a northerly track. Keys to the final track will be weakness over TX from Erin and TUTT forecast to move westward across the Gulf this weekend. The weaker the ridge over TX the more northerly the turn. Small intense hurricanes like Dean want to turn northward and bump the ridge and attempt to find a weakness…if one is there it will want to turn into it. Remember Rita was forecast to go into Mexico at Day 5 so no one within the error cone should disregard the potential impact of this hurricane.

Intensity:

The intensity guidance is down right troubling. GFDL shows a strong cat 5 (170 + mph) plowing across the Gulf…geez. See no reason why cat 4 intensity will not be reached in the Caribbean and maintained through landfall on the Yucatan…may see cat 5. Given excellent upper level outflow and high ocean heat content Dean will become a very dangerous hurricane. Will have to see how Dean’s inner structure is disrupted over the Yucatan although the fast forward motion may not allow for much weakening. All guidance brings Dean toward the western Gulf as a major hurricane…cat 3 or higher and I see no reason to go against this thinking.

Preparations:

Coastal residents along the Gulf coast need to frequently check on the progress of Dean this weekend.

Keep gas tanks filled above 3/4ths of a tank at all times to help ease a rush on gas supplies early next week if an evacuation is called for.

Residents in coastal evacuation zones should be prepared for possible evacuation orders as early as Monday morning…due to the fast forward motion the prep. Window is going to close very quickly and critical decisions related to evacuation cannot wait until the hurricane is in the Gulf.

Employers should notify hurricane ride out teams before the close of business on Friday so they can prepare over the weekend.

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Bulletin
Hurricane Dean Advisory Number 15
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
1100 Pm Ast Thu Aug 16 2007

...dean Approaching The Windward Islands...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For St. Lucia... Martinique...
Dominica...and Guadeloupe And Its Dependencies. Preparations To
Protect Life And Property Should Be Very Near Completion.

At 11 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...a Tropical Storm Warning Has Been Issued
For The U.s. Virgin Islands And Puerto Rico. A Tropical Storm
Warning Remains In Effect For The Following Islands Of The Lesser
Antilles...grenada And Its Dependencies...st. Vincent And The
Grenadines...barbados...saba...st. Eustatius... Montserrat...
Antigua...nevis...st Kitts...barbuda...st. Maarten...and Anguilla.
A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

At 1100 Pm Ast...a Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued For The
South Coast Of The Dominican Republic From Cabo Engano To The
Haiti/dominican Republic Border. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That
Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch
Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

Interests In The Central And Western Caribbean...including
Haiti...jamaica...and The Cayman Islands...should Closely
Monitor The Progress Of Dean.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 1100 Pm Ast...0300z...the Center Of Hurricane Dean Was Located
Near Latitude 14.1 North...longitude 58.7 West Or About 160 Miles...
255 Km...east-southeast Of Martinique And About 80 Miles...130 Km...
Northeast Of Barbados.

Dean Is Moving Toward The West Near 25 Mph...41 Km/hr...and This
Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours. On The
Forecast Track...the Center Of Dean Will Be Passing Very Near The
Islands Of St. Lucia And Martinique Within The Next Six To Twelve
Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 100 Mph...160 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Dean Is A Category Two Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Stronger Winds...especially In Gusts...are Likely
Over Elevated Terrain Near The Path Of The Center. Some
Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles...35 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140
Miles...220 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 976 Mb...28.82 Inches.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...
Accompanied By Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...is Possible
Near The Center Of Dean.

Storm Total Rainfall Of 2 To 5 Inches...with Isolated Maximum
Amounts Of 10 Inches In Mountainous Areas...are Possible In
Association With Dean In The Lesser Antilles. Across Puerto
Rico...storm Total Amounts Of 1 To 2 Inches Can Be Expected...with
Maximum Amounts Of Up To 5 Inches. These Rains Could Cause
Life-threatening Flash Floods And Mudslides.

Repeating The 1100 Pm Ast Position...14.1 N...58.7 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 25 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...100 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...976 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 200 Am Ast Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 500
Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/brown




Hurricane Dean Discussion Number 15
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
1100 Pm Edt Thu Aug 16 2007

The Satellite Presentation Of Dean Has Deteriorated A Bit Over The
Last 12 Hours...with No Evidence Of An Eye In Conventional Or
Microwave Imagery. The Sfmr Instrument On The Earlier Air Force
Flight Recorded A Peak Surface Wind Of 88 Kt Around 19z In The
Southeast Portion Of The Eyewall...along With Very Little Wind In
The Southwest Quadrant Of The Circulation. Based On The Earlier
Aircraft Data And Recent Structural Trends...the Initial Intensity
Is Held At 85 Kt. Communications Difficulties During The
Reconnaissance Mission Prevented Much Of The Data From Getting To
Us...but Dropsonde Data Called In Afterward By The Crew Indicate
The Central Pressure Is A Little Lower Than Previously Estimated...
About 976 Mb.

The Initial Motion Is 275/22. Dean Is South Of A Mid-level Ridge
That Has Been Moving Westward In Tandem With The Cyclone. Global
Model Guidance Is In Excellent Agreement That It Will Continue To
Do So For Most Of The Forecast Period...and The Guidance Is Very
Tightly Clustered On A West To West-northwest Track For At Least
The Next 72 Hours. After That...the Track Of Dean Will Depend On
How Much Interaction There Is Between The Hurricane And A Mid- To
Upper-level Low Currently Northeast Of The Bahamas. All The
Available Guidance Currently Moves This Low Westward Out Of The Way
And Shows Very Little Interaction Between The Two...and Hence Only
A Modest Rightward Bend In The Track On Days 4 And 5. The
Official Forecast Is Basically An Update Of The Previous Advisory
Track. Given The Uncertainty In Global Model Forecasts At Long
Ranges However...a Different Evolution With The Upper Low Is Not
Out Of The Question.

Dean Continues To Exhibit A Strong Outflow Pattern...and This
Favorable Upper Flow Is Expected To Persist For The Next Two To
Three Days. Data From The Noaa G-iv Mission This Evening Show No
Evidence Of Unfavorable Thermodynamics In The Near Environment...
And The Available Objective Guidance Indicates Continued
Strengthening In The Caribbean. The Upper Flow Could Be A Little
Less Favorable In The Western Caribbean...particularly If The Upper
Low Lags A Bit. The Official Forecast Calls For Slightly Faster
Development Than The Previous Advisory But Ends Up In The Same
Place...and Is In Good Agreement With The Available Objective
Guidance.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 17/0300z 14.1n 58.7w 85 Kt
12hr Vt 17/1200z 14.5n 61.9w 90 Kt
24hr Vt 18/0000z 15.1n 65.8w 95 Kt
36hr Vt 18/1200z 15.7n 69.2w 105 Kt
48hr Vt 19/0000z 16.4n 72.6w 115 Kt
72hr Vt 20/0000z 18.0n 80.0w 120 Kt
96hr Vt 21/0000z 19.5n 86.0w 120 Kt
120hr Vt 22/0000z 22.0n 92.0w 90 Kt

$$
Forecaster Franklin

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000
Wtnt44 Knhc 170853
Tcdat4
Hurricane Dean Discussion Number 16
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
500 Am Edt Fri Aug 17 2007

The Convective Organization Of Dean Is Not Very Impressive In Either
Satellite Imagery Or Imagery From The French Radar On Martinique.
There Are Only Occasional Glimpses Of A Ragged Eye On Radar...and
The Eyewall Has Been At Best About 50 Percent Coverage. Satellite
Intensity Estimates Are 77 Kt From Both Tafb And Sab...which Are
Unchanged From Earlier. The Initial Intensity Will Remain 85 Kt
For This Advisory...but It Is Possible This Is A Little Generous.

The Initial Motion Is 275/21. Dean Is On The South Side Of A
Deep-layer Ridge...and This Should Continue For The Next 72 Hr With
Dean Remaining On A General Westward To West-northwestward Track.
The Large-scale Models Have Seemingly Responded To The G-iv Jet
Mission By Showing A Slightly Weaker Ridge North Of Dean...with A
Motion That Is Slower And A Little To The Right Of Previous
Forecasts. Given The Initial Motion...the First 12 Hr Of The
Forecast Track Will Be Essentially Unchanged From The Previous
Package...with A Slight Nudge To The Right From 12-72 Hr. After 72
Hr...the Forecast Is Becoming More Problematic Due To Uncertainties
In The Eventual Interaction Of Dean And The Upper-level Low
Forecast To Be Over The Gulf Of Mexico. The Gfdl And Ukmet Models
Now Call For Dean To Turn Northwestward Into The Central
Gulf...while The Canadian...nogaps...and European Models Continue
To Forecast A Westward Motion Across The Yucatan Peninsula Into The
Bay Of Campeche. The Gfs And The Various Consensus Models Are
Between These Two Extremes. The Forecast Track After 72 Hr Is Also
Nudged A Little To The Right In Agreement With The Consensus
Guidance.

The Development Of Dean Has Apparently Been Slowed By A Combination
Of Dry Air Intrusion In The Western Semicircle And Light Westerly
Shear. These Conditions May Persist For Another 12-24 Hr...so The
Intensity Forecast Calls For Slow Strengthening During This Time.
After 24 Hr...conditions Should Be Favorable For Significant
Strengthening...with Most Of The Intensity Guidance Calling For
Dean To Reach At Least Category 4 Strength. The Intensity Forecast
Is The Same As In The Earlier Advisory Through 72 Hr...then
Slightly Stronger Thereafter. It Should Be Noted That The
Weakening From 96 To 120 Hr Is Based On Dean Crossing The Yucatan
Peninsula...and If It Instead Moves Through The Yucatan Channel It
Could Remain Stronger.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 17/0900z 14.3n 60.9w 85 Kt
12hr Vt 17/1800z 14.7n 63.6w 90 Kt
24hr Vt 18/0600z 15.3n 67.0w 95 Kt
36hr Vt 18/1800z 16.1n 70.5w 105 Kt
48hr Vt 19/0600z 16.9n 74.0w 115 Kt
72hr Vt 20/0600z 18.5n 81.0w 120 Kt
96hr Vt 21/0600z 20.5n 87.0w 125 Kt
120hr Vt 22/0600z 23.0n 92.0w 95 Kt

$$

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Sure looks like it's gonna go where we don't want it to---Texas/Louisiana! Pray for a front the will steer it towards less inhabited areas!

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Bulletin-
Hurricane Local Statement
National Weather Service San Juan Pr
300 Am Ast Fri Aug 17 2007
...center Of Dean To Pass Near Martinique And St. Lucia During The
Next Few Hours...moving Rapidly Westward...
...a Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The U.s. Virgin
Islands And Puerto Rico...
...new Information...
At 2 Am...maximum Seas Of 14 To 18 Feet Expected Across The Local
Caribbean Coastal Waters Friday Evening And Night.
...areas Affected...
This Statement Recommends Actions To Be Taken By Residents In The
U.s. Virgin Islands And Puerto Rico.
...watches/warnings...
At 2 Am A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The U.s.
Virgin Islands And Puerto Rico. A Coastal Flood Watch And A High
Surf Advisory Remains In Effect For The South And East Coasts Of The
U.s. Virgin Islands...culebra...vieques And Puerto Rico.
...storm Information...
At 2 Am Ast...hurricane Dean Was Located Near Latitude 14.3 North
Longitude 59.8 West...around 465 Miles Southeast Of Saint
Croix...510 Miles Southeast Of St Thomas...570 Miles Southeast Of
San Juan And Around 590 Miles Southeast Of Ponce. Dean Was Moving
Toward The West Near 25 Mph...and This Motion Is Expected To
Continue For The Next 24 Hours. Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near
100 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During
The Next 24 Hours.
...precautionary/preparedness Actions...
A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Within 24 Hours Or Less. Residents Of The U.s. Virgin
Islands And Puerto Rico Should Rush To Finalize Preparations For
Dean By Friday Morning. Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To
Begin Affecting The Local Area Around Mid Day Friday And Last
Through Saturday Morning. The Strongest Winds Are Expected To Impact
Marine Interests Across The Local Caribbean...with High Seas
Expected Across The Caribbean Coastal Waters And Passages...and Very
High Surf Along The Caribbean Coasts. Small Craft Should Remain In
Port.
...winds...
Based On The Current Forecast Track...sustained Tropical Storm Force
Winds In The 39 To 45 Mph Range Are Expected To Begin Across The
Caribbean Waters Southeast Of Saint Croix Around Mid Day Friday. As
Dean Continues Moving Westward Into The Eastern Caribbean. Tropical
Storm Force Winds Will Rapidly Spread To The Caribbean Waters Just
South Of Puerto Rico By Late Afternoon Friday. By Late Friday Night
Tropical Storm Force Winds Across The Saint Croix Caribbean Waters
Should Begin To Diminish And By Mid Morning Saturday Across Southern
Puerto Rico Waters. For The Land Areas Of The U.s. Virgin Islands
And Puerto Rico Occasional Wind Gusts To Tropical Storm Force Are
Possible...especially With Passing Squalls And Over Higher Terrain.
Tropical Storm Force Wind Gusts Could Be Strong Enough To Blow Down
Power Lines Mainly Over Saint Croix And The Southern Half Of Puerto
Rico. With The Current Forecast Track...the Center Of Hurricane Dean
Is Forecast To Remain South Of Saint Croix And Puerto Rico Friday
Afternoon Through Saturday Morning. However...all Local Interests
Should Continue To Monitor This Closely As Any Deviation To The
North Or Increase In Intensity Could Result In Stronger Winds To The
U.s. Virgin Islands And Puerto Rico.
...inland Flooding...
Rainbands And Thunderstorms Associated With The Northwestern Fringes
Of Hurricane Dean Should Begin During The Afternoon Friday Through
Friday Night Across The U.s. Virgin Islands And Over
Vieques...culebra And The Eastern Half Of Puerto Rico. Localized
Heavy Rainfall Is Possible As The Center Of Dean Passes South Of The
U.s. Virgin Islands And Puerto Rico On Its Forecast Track Friday
Night Through Saturday. Rainfall Totals Of One To To Inches Are
Possible Across The Area Late Friday Night Into Saturday With
Locally Higher Amounts Of Up To Five Inches Possible In The Interior
Sectors. Flash Flooding And Mudslides Are Possible Friday Night
Through Saturday Evening.
...local Marine Impacts...
Winds Across The Offshore Saint Croix Waters Will Be Reaching
Tropical Storm Strength 34 To 40 Knots With Higher Gusts Around Mid
Day Friday Continuing Through Friday Evening. Along The Southern
Puerto Rico Waters Tropical Storm Force Winds Of 34 To 40 Knots With
Higher Gusts Are Expected By Late Afternoon Through Saturday
Morning. As Hurricane Dean Passes South Of The Area Friday Afternoon
Seas Will Build Rapidly...reaching 14 To 18 Feet Across The Local
Caribbean Waters...and To 10 Feet Across The Atlantic Coastal
Waters. Small Craft Should Remain In Port Through Saturday.
Mariners In The Tropical Storm Warning Area Are Urged To Secure
Their Vessels Or Move Them To Safe Harbor Especially Along The Local
Caribbean Waters. Rough Marine Conditions Are Expected By Late
Friday Morning...and Will Deteriorate Through Saturday. Persons
Along The East And South Exposed Coastal Areas Should Remain Out Of
The Dangerous Surf.
...tornadoes...
Isolated Waterspouts Are Possible Mainly Along The Local Caribbean
Waters In Association With Rainbands And Squalls Friday Afternoon
Through Saturday Morning...and Could Move Ashore Along The Coasts.
...next Update...
The Next Hurricane Local Statement Will Be Issued By 600 Am Ast
Friday The National Weather Service Forecast Office In San Juan
Puerto Rico.
$$

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