Dean is a hurricane - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 07:53 AM

Wtnt34 Knhc 160849
Tcpat4
Bulletin
Hurricane Dean Advisory Number 12
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
500 Am Ast Thu Aug 16 2007

...dean Becomes A Hurricane...hurricane Warnings Issued...
At 5 Am Ast...0900 Utc...hurricane Warnings Have Been Issued For The
Islands Of Dominica And St. Lucia By Their Respective Governments.
A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. Preparations To
Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To Completion.

A Hurricane Watch Continues For The Islands Of Martinique...
Guadeloupe And Its Dependencies...saba...and St. Eustatius. A
Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within
The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours. Hurricane Or Tropical
Storm Warnings Will Likely Be Issued For Some Of These Islands
Later This Morning.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For St. Maarten. A Tropical
Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

Interests Elsewhere In The Lesser Antilles...the Virgin
Island...puerto Rico...and Hispaniola Should Monitor The Progress
Of Dean.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

At 500 Am Ast...0900z...the Center Of Hurricane Dean Was Located
Near Latitude 13.4 North...longitude 52.3 West Or About 485 Miles...
780 Km...east Of Barbados And About 590 Miles...950 Km...east Of
Martinique.

Dean Is Moving Toward The West Near 24 Mph...39 Km/hr...and This
Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours. This Motion
Should Bring The Center Of Dean Near The Lesser Antilles On Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph...120 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Dean Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Additional Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24
Hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Will
Investigate Dean This Afternoon.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles...35 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70
Miles...110 Km.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 987 Mb...29.15 Inches.
Storm Surge Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...
Accompanied By Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...is Possible
Near The Center Of Dean.
Storm Total Rainfalls Of 2 To 5 Inches...with Possible Maximum
Amounts Of 7 Inches In Mountainous Areas...are Possible In
Association With Dean. These Rains Could Cause Life-threatening
Flash Floods And Mudslides.

Repeating The 500 Am Ast Position...13.4 N...52.3 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 24 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...987 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 800 Am Ast Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 1100
Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Beven

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 07:55 AM

Wtnt44 Knhc 160908
Tcdat4
Hurricane Dean Discussion Number 12
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
500 Am Edt Thu Aug 16 2007

Dean Has Continued To Strengthen This Morning...with Occasional
Glimpses Of An Eye In Infrared Satellite Imagery And Cloud Tops
Colder Than -70c Near The Center. Satellite Intensity Estimates
Are 65 Kt From Tafb And Sab...so Dean Is Upgraded To The First
Hurricane Of The 2007 Hurricane Season.
The Initial Motion Is 280/21. Dean Is On The South Side Of A
Deep-layer Ridge...which Large-scale Models Forecast To Build
Westward During The Forecast Period. This Building Ridge Is
Forecast To Push Aside A Mid/upper-level Low Currently East Of
Florida...and Should This Happen That System Would Have Little
Interaction With Dean. The Pattern Evolution Should Keep Dean
Moving Quickly Westward To West-northwestward Through The Forecast
Period. The Track Guidance Is In Good Agreement With This
Scenario...and The Models Are Very Tightly Clustered Around A Track
Through The Caribbean Sea To Near The Yucatan Peninsula In Five
Days. The New Forecast Track Is Basically An Update Of The
Previous Package....and Is In Best Agreement With The Various
Consensus Models.
There Appears To Be Little To Keep Dean From Strengthening Through
The Forecast Period. The Ships Model Calls For The System To Reach
115 Kt By The End Of The Period...while The Experimental Lge Model
Is Calling For 127 Kt. The Gfdl Calls For Dean To Become A Major
Hurricane Over The Western Caribbean...although Oddly Enough It
Calls For Little Change In Strength During The First 60 Hr Of The
Forecast. The Intensity Forecast Has Been Nudged Upward For The
First 96 Hr In Good Agreement With The Ships Model.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Will Be
Investigating Dean This Afternoon..and The Noaa Gulfstream-iv
Will Conduct A Synoptic Surveillance Mission For The 17/00z
Analysis Cycle.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 16/0900z 13.4n 52.3w 65 Kt
12hr Vt 16/1800z 13.9n 55.4w 70 Kt
24hr Vt 17/0600z 14.4n 59.4w 80 Kt
36hr Vt 17/1800z 14.9n 63.0w 90 Kt
48hr Vt 18/0600z 15.4n 66.5w 100 Kt
72hr Vt 19/0600z 16.5n 73.5w 105 Kt
96hr Vt 20/0600z 18.0n 80.5w 110 Kt
120hr Vt 21/0600z 20.0n 87.5w 115 Kt

$$
Forecaster Beven

Char · 08-16-2007, 08:03 AM

Batten down the hatches!

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 09:08 AM

Char · 08-16-2007, 09:11 AM

One picture is worth a thousand words.

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 09:33 AM

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1226 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070816 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070816 1200 070817 0000 070817 1200 070818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 53.3W 14.8N 58.9W 15.5N 64.4W 15.9N 69.0W
BAMD 13.5N 53.3W 14.4N 57.0W 15.2N 60.5W 15.9N 63.9W
BAMM 13.5N 53.3W 14.5N 57.7W 15.1N 61.9W 15.6N 65.6W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070818 1200 070819 1200 070820 1200 070821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 73.0W 15.3N 79.5W 14.9N 84.2W 16.7N 87.0W
BAMD 16.5N 67.2W 17.2N 73.8W 18.3N 81.3W 20.2N 88.6W
BAMM 16.0N 69.2W 16.7N 76.2W 17.3N 83.4W 18.0N 89.0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 49.2W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 45.1W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 75NM

$$
NNNN

12z Models initialized Dean at winds of 75kts and a pressure of 982mb.

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 10:03 AM

000
Wtnt64 Knhc 161239
Tcuat4
Hurricane Dean Tropical Cyclone Update
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
830 Am Ast Thu Aug 16 2007
At 830 Am Ast...1230 Utc...the Trinidad And Tobago Meteorological
Service Has Issued A Tropical Storm Watch For Grenada And Its
Dependencies.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 10:36 AM

Meteorological service of the Netherlands Antilles latest advisory:
http://www.weather.an/cyclones/index.asp

Tropical Storm Dean upgraded to a Hurricane
Hurricane watch in effect for Saba and St.Eustatius

STORM IDENTIFICATION: Hurricane Dean

INTENSITY CATEGORY: CAT 1 Hurricane

CENTER LOCATION: Within 37 KM/ 23 MILES of 13.5 N 53.3 W or 1140 KM/ 715 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST of SABA

LOCATION TIME: ...... 8:00 A.M.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: to the west or 280 AT 24 MPH/ 39 KM/HR.

MAX WINDS NEAR CENTER: 70 KTS/ 80 MPH/ 130 KMH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

DISCUSSION: Last night Tropical Storm Dean continued to strengthen and was upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane. The hurricane is moving quickly westward and the center is expected to pass at comfortable distance South of the SSS-islands in the course of tomorrow, Friday 17 August. Dean continues to strenghten, and is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane by early Friday morning, a Category 3 hurricane by Friday evening.

With the present forecast track, tropical storm and hurricane force winds will most probably remain South of the SSS-islands, affecting the waters and causing rough seas due to high waves and swell. Dean is not expected to directly affect the islands. However, due to the forecast track uncertainties, a hurricane watch for Saba and Eustatius, as well as a Tropical Storm Watch for Sint Maarten will remain in effect for the time being.
LOCAL CONDITIONS: Seas will become rough today as swells generated by the hurricane begin to affect the waters in the Northeastern Caribbean. As Dean passes South of the SSS-islands on Friday, waves and swells will increase causing deteriorating sea conditions, while there is a possibility for squalls and rainbands passing over the SSS-islands Friday.

WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
Hurricane Watch in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius
Tropical Storm Watch in effect for St. Maarten.
A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect as from now, if necessary a Small Craft Warning will be issued later today.

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 10:55 AM

The southern islands are starting to report today.........

Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:

- Jamaica [Aug 16 9:39]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 16 8:47]
- Grenada [Aug 16 8:39]
- St.Thomas [Aug 16 8:29]
- Dominica [Aug 16 8:07]
- Barbados [Aug 16 7:43]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 16 7:16]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 16 7:11]
- Martinique [Aug 16 7:04]
- Tortola [Aug 16 6:05]
- Antigua [Aug 16 5:55]
- St.Lucia [Aug 16 5:25]
- Culebra (PR) [Aug 16 1:57]

This is an awesome site....Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands They will report daily till dean knocks out power, after if not able, sometimes there are Ham radio reports!! As they come in I will post!!

Char · 08-16-2007, 10:59 AM

Great site!