TD5 now TS Erin - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 01:06 PM

Wtnt65 Knhc 151516
Tcuat5
Tropical Storm Erin Tropical Cyclone Update
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052007
1015 Am Cdt Wed Aug 15 2007
Data From A Noaa Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate That Tropical
Depression Five In The Gulf Of Mexico Has Reached Tropical Storm
Strength And Is Now Tropical Storm Erin. A Special Advisory Will
Be Issued Within The Hour.

$$

Forecaster Avila

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 01:57 PM

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 01:59 PM

Surf starting to come up in Galveston.......

GALVESTON.COM WEBCAMS:*Spot Cam at 32nd and Seawall Boulevard

Also feeder bands are starting!!

MCcruiser · 08-15-2007, 02:00 PM

This young lady became a Tropical Storm about a day ahead of schedule. She is now about 340 miles south of me and is moving west northwest. Unless she takes a big swing to the north, she should not have a big impact on cruises out of Galveston or on Western Caribbean cruises in general. The current track shows her coming ashore near the Mexican border.

This could be a rainmaker for all of southern Texas.

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 02:20 PM

National guard has been activated and will be put in San Antonio with supplies and equipment, expect heavy flooding!!

Char · 08-15-2007, 02:49 PM

And the season begins!

MCcruiser · 08-15-2007, 02:58 PM

Most of the ground is pretty saturated where they are expecting the rain, hence the warning about heavy flooding.

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 03:40 PM

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Texas coast from
Freeport southward. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northeast coast of
Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 100 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
estimated near latitude 26.0 north...longitude 93.8 west or about
210 miles...340 km...east of Brownsville and about 260 miles...415
km...east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas. Satellite images
suggest that the center could be reforming a little bit to the
north...within the main area of thunderstorm activity. If this is
confirmed...the Tropical Storm Warning could be extended
northeastward later today.

Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On
this track...the center of Erin is forecast to be near the lower or
middle Texas coast Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall on Thursday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
to the east of the center. Some rainbands with gusty winds are
already approaching the Texas coast.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible along the
middle Texas coast...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.
Repeating the 100 PM CDT position...26.0 N...93.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40
mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
400 PM CDT.

MCcruiser · 08-15-2007, 04:00 PM

Thanks for the warning Sue. Those red letters did not warm my heart, but I'd rather find out now instead of when it would be too late.

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 05:46 PM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
400 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN ALREADY AFFECTING THE TEXAS
COAST...

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TEXAS
COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM SAN LUIS PASS
SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT
195 MILES...315 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 210
MILES...335 KM...SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ANOTHER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING ERIN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN ISOLATED COASTAL LOCATION TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Possible landfall around Port Lavaca